November 2020 Discussion

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I wasn't trying to speak in absolutes....but there is a high degree of correlation with an AK vortex in the 2nd half of November and a crap winter. There's been exceptions....2010-2011 was one of them actually. The vortex started breaking down at the very end of the month though and it was clear on guidance for a while. We;ll see about this year...I've seen it pop on guidance several times recently only to be eliminated as we get closer to verification. Maybe this is a case of "delayed but not denied" or maybe it just never really happens. Or maybe it happens but it is not a new paradigm, but merely a transient feature for 7-10 days.

Will, your low grade concern is palpable...

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models have a nice cold blast next week with a possible storm near Turkey Day.

They do?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Will, your low grade concern is palpable...

Operative word being "low"....I mean its clear that 1996, 2011 (to most of us) or 2015 isn't en route.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Operative word being "low"....I mean its clear that 1996, 2011 (to most of us) or 2015 isn't en route.

I could be wrong, but I believe Ginx is big big one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I could be wrong, but I believe Ginx is big big one.

?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

?

Winter 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Winter 

Yea, he is going 2010-2011...which is I parenthetically added "most of us" lol

LC and DT are going pretty big, too, but backloaded.....although DT is waivering a bit due to lack of cold up north.

[CoastalWx]

Low chance, but some hints of maybe a little -SN in the air mid week next week?

[CoastalWx]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models have a nice cold blast next week with a possible storm near Turkey Day.

Did Antifa crowd your cruiser and steal your phone?

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, he is going 2010-2011...which is I parenthetically added "most of us" lol

LC and DT are going pretty big, too, but backloaded.....although DT is waivering a bit due to lack of cold up north.

Dick Tolleris goes big every year. Look at last year lol

[Typhoon Tip]

I think we have a better chance than slight for snow next week - how much so ..? But I suspect it's not as low as all that.

it's just that said chance is not painted by any models, either - ha!  Not helping my case...no. 

It's what imho I think is in the "likeliness" envelope of that time frame...   

Seeing a bulge, ...albeit subtle ( I get it ), in the PNA guidance.   The GEFs are very concerted tho, and this aligns with the antecedent ...albeit low end materialization of a phased 8-1-2 MJO migration. 

Here's a mind-bender ... if the HC expansion shit wasn't in play ( at all times in the fluid construct of the global scale), we'd see a strong wave mechanical presence emerging in the observation net - but this is like a strong wave being ( I "think" ) masked/muted/hidden/concealed ...whatever adjective best suits, but the smothering effect of the expansion stuff is suppressing a better detection. 

I think/suspect that what is being modulated out of both the Euro and GEFs clusters ( reasonably agreeing) shows enough presentation there to suggest a forcing...  A flat-like +PNA with 50/50 chance at a pulsed -EPO loading are within the framework of results.   The flow being fast over all helps that overall thinking;  the more momentum ... it is "easier" for the models to map that out in time ...so it's not like the same scenario where we have subtle teleconnector modalities in a nebular flow that has more entropy guiding uncertainty... It's more like looking at the girders in the scaffolding as iron-clad because the bigger momentum has more weight -

[Whineminster]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Low chance, but some hints of maybe a little -SN in the air mid week next week?

ya next week looks frigid 

[mahk_webstah]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I could be wrong, but I believe Ginx has a big big one.

I'm just standing in for  Zeus.

I figure it is gonna be a great winter. front loaded with warmth to keep us outside and not going crazy, and backloaded with heavy snow as we follow the plows to the CVS to get our vaccines and emerge into the world again.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think we have a better chance than slight for snow next week - how much so ..? But I suspect it's not as low as all that.

it's just that said chance is not painted by any models, either - ha!  Not helping my case...no. 

It's what imho I think is in the "likeliness" envelope of that time frame...   

Seeing a bulge, ...albeit subtle ( I get it ), in the PNA guidance.   The GEFs are very concerted tho, and this aligns with the antecedent ...albeit low end materialization of a phased 8-1-2 MJO migration. 

Here's a mind-bender ... if the HC expansion shit wasn't in play ( at all times in the fluid construct of the global scale), we'd see a strong wave mechanical presence emerging in the observation net - but this is like a strong wave being ( I "think" ) masked/muted/hidden/concealed ...whatever adjective best suits, but the smothering effect of the expansion stuff is suppressing a better detection. 

I think/suspect that what is being modulated out of both the Euro and GEFs clusters ( reasonably agreeing) shows enough presentation there to suggest a forcing...  A flat-like +PNA with 50/50 chance at a pulsed -EPO loading are within the framework of results.   The flow being fast over all helps that overall thinking;  the more momentum ... it is "easier" for the models to map that out in time ...so it's not like the same scenario where we have subtle teleconnector modalities in a nebular flow that has more entropy guiding uncertainty... It's more like looking at the girders in the scaffolding as iron-clad because the bigger momentum has more weight -

you  and Kevin have a  lot in common...

you have been occassionally honking about parts of November and I refuse to give up.

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, he is going 2010-2011...which is I parenthetically added "most of us" lol

LC and DT are going pretty big, too, but backloaded.....although DT is waivering a bit due to lack of cold up north.

Speaking of lack of cold up north, I think this map is interesting.  Some fairly well placed features...but deep cold almost nowhere to be found:

[ORH_wxman]

31 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Speaking of lack of cold up north, I think this map is interesting.  Some fairly well placed features...but deep cold almost nowhere to be found:

10 day OP map.....caveats apply...but that isn't a bad look at all in winter. PV on the Asian side of the hemisphere but that is plenty serviceable. For November winter wx events, you probably want more PV involvement since you are fighting climo a little harder this time of the year for snow. But having that kind of blocking up in AK and the Yukon is good and would work in December.

[powderfreak]

These sunsets have been crazy.

Its also crazy that if we wanted to watch the sunset in July we’d leave our house 4 hours later than today.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Did Antifa crowd your cruiser and steal your phone?

Next week =)

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Next week =)

Not sure if you’re drunk or writing too many mask tickets but nothing is offering any snow next week 

[PhineasC]

Down to 30. November has returned.

[mreaves]

28 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Down to 30. November has returned.

32° here. 

[powderfreak]

29F.  Crisp outside with the dog.

[Go Kart Mozart]

The models have been hinting at -nao for a while now, but the signal looks a little bit more pronounced in the most recent runs.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Wet.  About 0.20" over last couple days and more today.  Sitting at +8.5F MTD on temp.

Still rocking the severe drought by some measures.

[dendrite]

10 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Down to 30. November September has returned.

fyp

[CoastalWx]

47 with sheet rains.

[CoastalWx]

Leaves at the stake: 3-5"

[powderfreak]

23F here... we hat and gloves again.

SLK with 15F.

Freezing fog with rime ice on trees too, winter.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, powderfreak said:

23F here... we hat and gloves again.

SLK with 15F.

Seriously?  It's almost 50F here. 

Oak leaves have infested everything.

[Snowcrazed71]

23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Seriously?  It's almost 50F here. 

Oak leaves have infested everything.

Same here. Its nuts. I cant wait until.it dries tomorrow so I can use my back pack blower on the oak leaves.