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November 2020 Discussion

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3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

62/60 at close to midnight on Nov 11th. 
 

should be a sneaky high temp for Nov 12 at most stations. 

Will be 66° here. 62/58 now after the fropa. 

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11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Little over 1/10" overnight.  Oak leaf drop commenced yesterday.  Inches now cover the lawn.

It's amazing how that one cold night (well two I suppose) just flipped and dropped everything in little over a week.  Surprised yours weren't quicker as you has several frosts.  I still have a chunk left, but large portion of them are down.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's amazing how that one cold night (well two I suppose) just flipped and dropped everything in little over a week.  Surprised yours weren't quicker as you has several frosts.  I still have a chunk left, but large portion of them are down.

Yeah, I have the stubborn oaks that love to stay on the trees into WInter.  Lost about 1/3 though in one day.  My Pear dropped a lot overnight as well. Just looked at the departures and TAN pulled off a +24F yesterday!  :stun:  +8F MTD.

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Warmest 7-day period in November for BTV since 1884... by a full 4 degrees.

Old 7-day record mean temp was 55.2F in 1938.

The past 7-days averaged 59.4F.

Thats f’in wild.

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Might be a couple of snow chances when that deep trough sets up over the northeast. I could see a s/w or two try and round the base. Probably be just another small window like the last few days of Oct first few of Nov was, but it might produce. Spidey senses tingling a bit.


#NovaScotiaStrong

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Lining up for an outdoors Turkey Day? And look at those blues from AK to the PAC NW!

 

They've been torched and dry the last decade or so.....it's our turn. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some of us don't have nearly as far to regress as others.

No, but as a region overall we probably will. Could argue it started a couple of years ago. Or, mother nature could wallop us the next ten years and laugh at the stats. But yes, surely this area locally is due for some shit seasons. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Having intervals like that this season is expected. I just don't think it sits there for 4 months like 2012.

I’ll defer to you but it’s always concerning when it is the dominating feature in late fall. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ll defer to you but it’s always concerning when it is the dominating feature in late fall. 

Of course it is. And I am not trying to speak in absolutes. I have learned my lesson on that. Obviously odds of a ratter increase when you see something like that in November, but I still feel okay. If its still there as we approach xmas, then I'll be very concerned.

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The EPS made a pretty big 12hr move yesterday well inside of day 10 as a particular wave coming off Kamchatka into the Aleutians came into better focus, with downstream implications.  Hard to get worked up over day 15 progs in the same region.  Things seem to be transient right now, as mentioned.

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If the AK piggy locks in for late month, it's definitely concerning. We haven't seen it happen yet though and the next week or so actually features a lot of ridging up there.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

If the AK piggy locks in for late month, it's definitely concerning. We haven't seen it happen yet though and the next week or so actually features a lot of ridging up there.

I love to argue against these sort of presumptive aspects ... so tfwiw - ... but I've seen big storms with cold winter porn addiction satisfaction ( as if that's possible - ) WITH/while that vortex was there.  There are no 1::1 correlations.

I know you know this ...but, I'm just reminding ...  I personally don't throw hands and assume the worse for wear just because it shows up out there in guidance ...suggestively ... even if clad in fashion. 

What I do admit is that it makes it harder to get said kleenex and tissue-paper event to transpire - sure.  

Having said that...I don't think that semi/quasi-permanent gyres are "systemically favored" to evolve given the geophysical limitations imposed by velocity saturation - fancy words for too much rest state wind speed ( Ha, kind of an oxymoron there:  'resting wind' )  ... but y'all get what I mean... I mean in between storms, the wind still howls along at some positive anomaly.

See. ...we're sorta conditioned to think of the winter hemispheres as looking certain ways from time to time?  But, those may be increasingly outmoded in present era of higher tropospheric flow rates, compared to the previous climate regime; which ended ...so it seems, around 15 years ago when this maddening maelstrom stuff got more observably plaguing cold season hemispheres. 

In simple terms, it's hard to maintained curved surfaces ...when the flow around them is exceeding the coriolis/forcing input.  The flow 'rips' open troughs and keeps things from closing.  It doesn't mean you can't have bombs and ephemeral closures too - we're talking about mitigation, not complete obstruction.   

Part of the velocity surplusing is that the R-waves will also tend to be more progressive in nature ...just wave mechanics at the planetary scale - if we run through the enormous complexity of Navier-Stokes at these huge scales ...and ad giant DX terms ... the curvature of the flow suffers ...and that's why the progression bias has lurked ...this should be automatic and intuitive to any of us that had to go through those f'n calculations to graduate.  

Anyway, I don't think we can really sustain an anchored butt-bangs ...or 'anchor' anything ...there or anywhere else...long enough to dictate a season's bias complexion.  

The easiest pathway to getting a good winter out it is a multi stream long wave synergy ...where the wave numbers sort of coalesce to more like a 4-wave hemispheric model ... with fast transporting moderate impactors moving through the circuitry. 

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58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I love to argue against these sort of presumptive aspects ... so tfwiw - ... but I've seen big storms with cold winter porn addiction satisfaction ( as if that's possible - ) WITH/while that vortex was there.  There are no 1::1 correlations.

I know you know this ...but, I'm just reminding ...  I personally don't throw hands and assume the worse for wear just because it shows up out there in guidance ...suggestively ... even if clad in fashion. 

What I do admit is that it makes it harder to get said kleenex and tissue-paper event to transpire - sure.  

Having said that...I don't think that semi/quasi-permanent gyres are "systemically favored" to evolve given the geophysical limitations imposed by velocity saturation - fancy words for too much rest state wind speed ( Ha, kind of an oxymoron there:  'resting wind' )  ... but y'all get what I mean... I mean in between storms, the wind still howls along at some positive anomaly.

See. ...we're sorta conditioned to think of the winter hemispheres as looking certain ways from time to time?  But, those may be increasingly outmoded in present era of higher tropospheric flow rates, compared to the previous climate regime; which ended ...so it seems, around 15 years ago when this maddening maelstrom stuff got more observably plaguing cold season hemispheres. 

In simple terms, it's hard to maintained curved surfaces ...when the flow around them is exceeding the coriolis/forcing input.  The flow 'rips' open troughs and keeps things from closing.  It doesn't mean you can't have bombs and ephemeral closures too - we're talking about mitigation, not complete obstruction.   

Part of the velocity surplusing is that the R-waves will also tend to be more progressive in nature ...just wave mechanics at the planetary scale - if we run through the enormous complexity of Navier-Stokes at these huge scales ...and ad giant DX terms ... the curvature of the flow suffers ...and that's why the progression bias has lurked ...this should be automatic and intuitive to any of us that had to go through those f'n calculations to graduate.  

Anyway, I don't think we can really sustain an anchored butt-bangs ...or 'anchor' anything ...there or anywhere else...long enough to dictate a season's bias complexion.  

The easiest pathway to getting a good winter out it is a multi stream long wave synergy ...where the wave numbers sort of coalesce to more like a 4-wave hemispheric model ... with fast transporting moderate impactors moving through the circuitry. 

For once, your killer Hadley Cell may work in our favor lol

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I love to argue against these sort of presumptive aspects ... so tfwiw - ... but I've seen big storms with cold winter porn addiction satisfaction ( as if that's possible - ) WITH/while that vortex was there.  There are no 1::1 correlations.

I know you know this ...but, I'm just reminding ...  I personally don't throw hands and assume the worse for wear just because it shows up out there in guidance ...suggestively ... even if clad in fashion. 

What I do admit is that it makes it harder to get said kleenex and tissue-paper event to transpire - sure.  

Having said that...I don't think that semi/quasi-permanent gyres are "systemically favored" to evolve given the geophysical limitations imposed by velocity saturation - fancy words for too much rest state wind speed ( Ha, kind of an oxymoron there:  'resting wind' )  ... but y'all get what I mean... I mean in between storms, the wind still howls along at some positive anomaly.

See. ...we're sorta conditioned to think of the winter hemispheres as looking certain ways from time to time?  But, those may be increasingly outmoded in present era of higher tropospheric flow rates, compared to the previous climate regime; which ended ...so it seems, around 15 years ago when this maddening maelstrom stuff got more observably plaguing cold season hemispheres. 

In simple terms, it's hard to maintained curved surfaces ...when the flow around them is exceeding the coriolis/forcing input.  The flow 'rips' open troughs and keeps things from closing.  It doesn't mean you can't have bombs and ephemeral closures too - we're talking about mitigation, not complete obstruction.   

Part of the velocity surplusing is that the R-waves will also tend to be more progressive in nature ...just wave mechanics at the planetary scale - if we run through the enormous complexity of Navier-Stokes at these huge scales ...and ad giant DX terms ... the curvature of the flow suffers ...and that's why the progression bias has lurked ...this should be automatic and intuitive to any of us that had to go through those f'n calculations to graduate.  

Anyway, I don't think we can really sustain an anchored butt-bangs ...or 'anchor' anything ...there or anywhere else...long enough to dictate a season's bias complexion.  

The easiest pathway to getting a good winter out it is a multi stream long wave synergy ...where the wave numbers sort of coalesce to more like a 4-wave hemispheric model ... with fast transporting moderate impactors moving through the circuitry. 

Yeah I wasn't trying to speak in absolutes....but there is a high degree of correlation with an AK vortex in the 2nd half of November and a crap winter. There's been exceptions....2010-2011 was one of them actually. The vortex started breaking down at the very end of the month though and it was clear on guidance for a while. We;ll see about this year...I've seen it pop on guidance several times recently only to be eliminated as we get closer to verification. Maybe this is a case of "delayed but not denied" or maybe it just never really happens. Or maybe it happens but it is not a new paradigm, but merely a transient feature for 7-10 days.

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