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October 2020 Discussion

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just ignore the pig then. Big big snows coming 

A pig in November,  hmm when have we seen that before.... you wouldn't remember 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Crack open another 

Hmm Nov 1 2010. I am sure you were in panic mode then as well. Like I said you are just talk

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why the anger?

I don't know why Kevin is so angry and down all the time either.  I guess being married to a green lawn and having it divorce him might be the root of it.

38 hurricane guarantee also?

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In spring I agree. But in the month leading up to winter we want it cold with snow chances. Unfortunately, the one eyed Alaskan pig has other ideas this year.

Enjoy the mild winter then.

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Scooter asking people why they are so angry is precious considering his past unbridled angry over snowflakes. Its just frozen water dude.

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Nov 2010 def had a November pig, it was kind of an exception to the Nov pig rule. But I do recall vividly that the vortex was forecasted to break down mid-month...it ended up lasting closer to thanksgiving but it did break down before the month was over, so it never looked very bleak. 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How we like and want it. True fall . Not the torch it’s been. Until retorch in Nov as the pig digs in 

I'm glad you're back to making posts I can tolerate.

In other news, one and done does not cut it at at mi nuevo casa.  Everyone's out blowing leaves (including me).  Will probably be back doing it again tomorrow

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Hmm... that D6/7 scenario .. since the para-G's jest 18z yesterday, every cycle is pretty locked in on a scenario that offers the season's first real synoptic winter complexion. 

( Don't want to get into a subjective perspective debate; I realize we had the western ME thing a week or so ago ..but that was elevation reliant and really more meso-beta scales) 

Now, .. obviously the para' model is in experimental/beta, but some non/less conventionally popular tools are latching on now... That ICON and the GGEM ( 12z ) fits, and when considering the GGEM warm bias at this time range ...and the fact that it parks a 1030 mb nascent polar high NW of Maine and arcs the llv +PP down into the damming/barrier jet climo ...heh, I don't think the GGEM's totally liquid in that scenario frankly.

Plus, as I intimated, the PNA is sharply rising then - that's a native H.A. signal, particularly when the positive NAO is afoot - and those two tend to run along in a modest anti-correlation, so the notion overall has the statistical support.. 

What we have here is a +NAO that is west-based in the hypsometric layout. Concurrent in these models that are tipping into an an early consensus (?) is thus a strengthening N-stream jet aecing over SE Canada .. That creates a confluence flow structure, under which indeed we find an arm of gathering polar +PP ... this is becoming increasingly evident in the guidance I've seen ... ICONic, GGEM, GFS, Para-G, and Japan.. haven't checked the Euro but my confidence in that guidance beyond the D4.5 range has been rattled recently ... I haven't seen many individual members of the GEFs just yet, but the trend/blend is subtly deeper upon deep layer approach D5 --> 6 ..not unusual for the GEF camp/oper. to have to back off progressivity leaning toward nearer terms... bear that in mind.

The other aspect I'm intrigued by is that if you go look at the Kocin et al and other examples, it is not unusual to have an antecedent quasi cut off low plunk into the SW ...then, gets kicked east to intersect with the N stream ( said )...  times well... ( for run, kind of like a tossing b-ball ahead and running and jumping to catch and dunk/self ally -ooper).    *Not* intending to suggest a K.U. event here... just that some of the players in a round-about sense bears some precedence - obviously, all of which are formulaic at this time.  D6 is late mid/range on the cusp of extended.. granted, but is substantively better performed than a D11 ...

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4 minutes ago, klw said:

Okay, what is the pig reference about?

5H vortex over Alaska leading to downstream ridging over the NE US

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Can always tell when guidance is a snoozer if Ineedsnow and Metfan don’t post. 

It's not a snoozer coming up 

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Pretty crazy that at 5am it was 64F and we slept all night with windows and doors open (almost turned the fan on).... while at 3pm it was 44F.

Exact opposite of the normal diurnal swing.  It’s been a cold afternoon.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Cold day up high!

Wind chill in the teens.  Full winter clothing needed at the picnic tables.

52B9DFB1-1382-4444-BDAA-B1433AD10612.jpeg.991bbd16d6f501e6232f95ec159c89c0.jpeg

It was cold and windy on Greylock but not quite that cold. I took pictures but it was in the clouds and they're just white.

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