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October 2020 Discussion

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oh crap - I thought I started this thread already with a write up about October .. but I just realized I neglected to actually type October in the title of that - 

lol.....  oops

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Man ...that'll really set the pumpkin fields aglow in the dawn light over the weekend, huh -

546 dm thickness, whilst pervasive  high pressure all over southern/SE Canada spills into the Lake/OV/NE region ... offers perfect light N oozing that terminates into decoupled low levels, That has a 22 to 30 nocturnal rural frosters seeming likely. 

 

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Can someone move that the October post in here ?   

it's still relevant... 

I'm actually wondering if we are already seeing some pings on the extended radar -

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not sure how anyone thinks a cold snowy October is coming . After the first week it’s above to much above normal and Canada is torched. Not a good look to build early cryosphere up north 

 

2nd half I thought was cooling down rapidly, pretty sure I read that somewhere....idk

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

cold "snowy" October - 

where it the f is that coming from -

Not sure, I mentioned some below normal days and it turned into Oct snow................lol

  • Haha 2

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We just had a shot across the bow low top gusty shower ...  

A month from now... that'd be light rain --> grapple ticks --> aggregate noodles --> light rain ...back to sun...  The sky had the texture. The rain was cold ..brr on shorts legs, going sideways in 30mph gusts.  It was a CAA driven instability in other words and we had yet to see that this early autumn ... so it may be more than merely symbolic - 

But ... mm, it's funny that despite the ensembles the operational models are fighting their own means for mid month.  I'm not sure I buy it just yet...  The GEFs - fwiw - still signal an early winter like pattern expression.    We could almost argue that's so anyway, with 540 dm thickness contour down to the N. Lake and N NE at times prior to this the mid month 'warm up' ... 

But now we got a canes crawling up the eastern seaboard with 19 c 850 mb thermal plumes ejecting out of the front range of the rockies on top of the GEFs +PNA/-AO(-NOA) hemisphere. Interesting. Could also just be typical transition season growing pains -

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

People worried about the Euro for the winter. This is a Miller B winter setup. Let's see how the Euro doess for Monday 

download.png

download (1).png

download (2).png

download (3).png

Double barrel low

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41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

People worried about the Euro for the winter. This is a Miller B winter setup. Let's see how the Euro doess for Monday 

download.png

download (1).png

download (2).png

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40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Double barrel low

I am honestly encouraged we are seeing coastal storms popping up on the models already. Hopefully a good sign as we move forward thru the fall and upcoming winter months.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

FV3’fs and FV3 op has nothing. I hope no one buying Euro

You have done a total 180 on models.

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