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Windspeed

The "Double Trouble" Banter Thread

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Making a single thread to cover semi-related, off-topic and non-meteorological discussions for both Laura and Marco. Both systems are going to influence each other directly and indirectly and I am sure frequent postings will heat up enough to warrant it. Speaking of...

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I think the potential for both of these systems to be much ado about nothing has increased markedly in last 24 hours

1) Laura- IF the system had organized and developed stacked vortices, it would have gone north of the islands. It did not and got whipped westward with the trade winds. It, still resembling garbage, has been named but it has guaranteed itself significant land interaction with possibly every major landmass in the Caribbean. This system had potential entirely based on it staying north of the islands and interacting with an upper level snticyclone with potential for optimal outflow and light shear an a few days in the vicinity of the southern Bahamas. Given that did not happen, this system is doa until *possibly* entering the gulf if it can keep somewhat of a circulation it can build off of once it leaves interaction with Cuba. 


2) TD 14- this system is a prime example that it takes prior organization to exploit favorable environmental conditions. If this had been an organized TC in its current location, it would be strengthening on approach to the Yucatán, possibly significantly. It, however, is using its time over water just to organize into TC. Unfortunately for the system, it’s time over water will be cut short so the bar for strengthening is lower. After LF in the Yucatán, it will once again depend on the storms structure for how quickly and how much strengthening can occur. Though I believe the models to be overdone on the amount of shear, there will still be considerable SW shear, continental dry air, and possible negative interaction with whatever remains of Laura. This system will not look like a classic cyclone on approach to the gulf coast and interaction with the trough and shear will probably make this a comma system. We’ve seen these Max out as low category hurricanes but that’s it. Simply put, the bar is not high for this one either. 
 

Im not ruling out the possibility one or both of these systems reach hurricane status (I think TD 14 has best chance) and a lot can change, but I do not think either storm has a high ceiling given the above factors. Laura’s Achilles heel being lack of organization at present and then land battles and TD 14’s being Yucatán and then a hostile gulf on approach to the US. I don’t see anyway either makes a run at a significant hurricane now and I think most guidance has performed fairly well with keeping these systems in check for a reason. 

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Whatever happened to being patient? Laura is in its infancy and the calendar date is 8-21. YOU PEOPLE really don’t deserve a long tracker. You haven’t proven you can responsibly talk about it. 

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32 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Whatever happened to being patient? Laura is in its infancy and the calendar date is 8-21. YOU PEOPLE really don’t deserve a long tracker. You haven’t proven you can responsibly talk about it. 

but wizard021 said grave danger was coming.

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1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Whatever happened to being patient? Laura is in its infancy and the calendar date is 8-21. YOU PEOPLE really don’t deserve a long tracker. You haven’t proven you can responsibly talk about it. 

This ^^^^^

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1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Whatever happened to being patient? Laura is in its infancy and the calendar date is 8-21. YOU PEOPLE really don’t deserve a long tracker. You haven’t proven you can responsibly talk about it. 

giphy.gif?cid=82a1493bh3csxqm2lt8rvt4wl6

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Reminder that no model shown 2 hurricanes coming ashore.  It's one or the other or none.

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I feel like I know less than when I started when I read the two main threads right now. God the quality of discussion has gone downhill...

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Very interesting and unusual situation coming up with Marco and Laura.  Everything would have to come together just right (or wrong depending on your viewpoint) but we could have 2 land falling hurricanes within 24 hours coming ashore at the same place.  It could be a bad situation for New Orleans.  If Marco came ashore just SW of the city it would drive water into Lake Pontchartrain.  If Marco then turned more west and weakened quickly the water would not drain back into the Gulf.  Lots of "ifs" but Laura could follow the same path driving more water into the canal system.  This will be fascinating from a meteorological standpoint to see how this all plays out.

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45 minutes ago, hlcater said:

confine wizard021 and ldub to this thread while you're at it too pls. thx

ilub is on my last nerve too. 

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Frances and Jeanne: "we made landfall in the same spot only three weeks apart!"

Laura and Marco: "hold our beer"

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is crazy y'all.  And that's all I got to say about that.

Is it really besides the weirdness of both storms maybe coming in back to back? I am trying to get hyped for it but just can’t. 

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The media is gonna be premature in their pants over this. Hopefully it's not as bad as it looks like it might be.

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15 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, unless one of those fantastical hurricane model solutions come to fruition, chances are neither of these storms are as damaging as the Iowa Derecho.

Yeah but the  Iowa derecho wasn’t as damaging as the Indian Ocean tsunami

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3 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Yeah but the  Iowa derecho wasn’t as damaging as the Indian Ocean tsunami

Yeah but the Indian Ocean tsunami wasn't as damaging as the Chicxulub asteroid (you know, the one that killed the dinosaurs and 3/4 of the rest of the world's plant and animal life)

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7 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Yeah but the Indian Ocean tsunami wasn't as damaging as the Chicxulub asteroid (you know, the one that killed the dinosaurs and 3/4 of the rest of the world's plant and animal life)

Great point. Fortunately, Hispaniola will certainly prevent Laura from organizing to the point where it will become as problematic as CXB

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