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Hurricane Isaias


wxeyeNH
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11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Need some advice from the Mets please.    The Euro has been consistent in bringing a core of very strong gusts through the NW Lakes Region of NH.  It actually intensifies the core as it moves north just east of the Conn Valley.  Im at a high elevation with a south exposure.   I rarely gust over 40 and my all time high in a winter cold front is 61mph.  That did a lot of damage.   Is this core of winds even remotely possible.  Euro says 80-90mph gusts.  I don't believe that but even 60 would be very strong

Toss the 80-90. I think we need a lot to go right to mix 60mph down...maybe your elevation helps. But I'm worried about not getting fully into the warm sector and having a bit of cool taint to affect the mixing potential. I'm on the 45-50mph train for most with isolated spots of 50mph+.

Looks like the 12z NAM is coming in with the LLJ a bit more east of the 6z run.

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27 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Dumbing down and translating this to English I think you are saying these crazy winds will probably not happen up here to any great extent

No... 

I was meaning that without this tropical cyclone getting an assist from the jet structure aloft, it would/could be assumed to be a trivial ( means not a big deal/worth discussion) ordeal N of NYC.   

But, ... the Euro adds some question about it being stronger as a system as it moves N ... and I added reasons why - that layering of concepts may have been hard to follow?  Anyway, we may need to wait on the behavior ( it is sometimes referred to as "now-casting" ) to see if the Euro works out....

This is like putting in an order at Dunkin Donuts.  If you order off the menu...your fine.  You get a yummy coffee with cream and sugar and a frosted donut in your bag. But, as soon as you add or subtract from the menu item, you end up with a mystery raffle ...as to what in the f you're going to be eating for breakfast 10 miles down the road. 

Just bustin' ballz but .. even if a stronger system/scenario, there's still other things that need to happen to get those hefty winds to mix down - probably need to refer to scienced method for those determinations. 

 

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Toss the 80-90. I think we need a lot to go right to mix 60mph down...maybe your elevation helps. But I'm worried about not getting fully into the warm sector and having a bit of cool taint to affect the mixing potential. I'm on the 45-50mph train for most with isolated spots of 50mph+.

Looks like the 12z NAM is coming in with the LLJ a bit more east of the 6z run.

Brian,  does the LLJ being a bit more east bring stronger winds into Central NH?

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14 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Suns out here as well....Rogue Tor signatures popping up in PA as we speak, impressive ones as well showing up off the Jersey Shore. 

I think these early tor warned cells are more associated with convection running up and over the top of the book-end frontal boundary that was, as of 13:31 still draiped west to east ...sort of "frontalysis" in nature ..through the area.  They were potent with high end DBZ ongoing ... but waited/rather suddenly tripped tor warning when they were roughly between the Pike and Rt 2

image.thumb.png.2a5448f16f57ac16765aba6f455780d1.png

And below this residual boundary the skies are brightening like a proper warm sector would...  

There's some quasi behavior though - this TC is going to be "latching" onto these frontal structure as it natively acquires more and more transitioning to baroclinic physics, and you can kinda .. sorta see how it becomes "like" a standard cyclone and that frontal fragment over SNE would become the warm frontal arm??   

Well, warm fronts have nearly ideal helicity profiles... and those cells speed bumping over that shear profile might have caused their updrafts to close off

 

Just a hypothesis... Because for one, they are too far removed from the TC to really be part of it's specific forcing. 

You didn't ask...I'm just offering up this analysis to everyone and using your post as a launch :) 

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