Hurricane Isaias

[wxeyeNH]

I think this could be an over achiever

Discuss....

[wxeyeNH]

Just saw on the tropical thread on the main board that no recon going in till 730pm?  That seems nuts with a 5pm important advisory coming out as it approaches the east coast and seems to be getting it's act together.

[Bostonseminole]

 

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Just saw on the tropical thread on the main board that no recon going in till 730pm?  That seems nuts with a 5pm important advisory coming out as it approaches the east coast and seems to be getting it's act together.

nap time?

[wxeyeNH]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

nap time?

They knew this afternoon would be the critical period,  would it get it's act together at the last moment as some models suggested so just wonder how they can have a 4-6 hour gap at the most important time?

[dryslot]

Convection has been flaring up all afternoon, Its sh it or get off the pot time now.

[DotRat_Wx]

Fun now cast. Will be interesting to see what happens as it approaches. 

[DotRat_Wx]

Wow. Check out the line blowing north through the mid atl. 

[CoastalWx]

It’s much better now in the last hour. Should be intensifying from here until landfall. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s much better now in the last hour. Should be intensifying from here until landfall. 

I really want it to close off fully but I like what I see on the western side of the center. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I really want it to close off fully but I like what I see on the western side of the center. 

Eye is a little larger now it seems

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Good thing this is in and out in a hurry limiting the damage. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Eye is a little larger now it seems

Yeah, getting some lightning on the SW side of that eyewall too. If it can wrap and tighten in the next hour or two it might ramp up nicely. Seeing the velocities off the deck go up. 

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr weenie gusts are nasty in western CT. Keeps core intact.

[snowman21]

23 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

They knew this afternoon would be the critical period,  would it get it's act together at the last moment as some models suggested so just wonder how they can have a 4-6 hour gap at the most important time?

Maybe because it's so close to land? It'll make landfall in about 5 hours, and it's within radar range and passing over buoys.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr weenie gusts are nasty in western CT. Keeps core intact.

Actually has some decent TOR potential well into NH and even parts of ME

[Ginx snewx]

[wxeyeNH]

If it is upgraded at 5pm to a hurricane (which would be my guess)  can they super impose a hurricane watch over a tropical storm warning for areas up the coast?  Don't know if that can be done?

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr weenie gusts are nasty in western CT. Keeps core intact.

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

That’s very impressive for sure...wonder if it actually verify’s?    

[wxeyeNH]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s very impressive for sure...wonder if it actually verify’s?    

If that were actually to verify it would make Isaias a very big deal.  A 55-80mph gust area this large would bring a huge amount of power problems.  Unlike so many storms where the hype far exceeds the harm this could be reversed.  Usually we have a decaying slow moving TC coming up the coast or interacting with a September airmass.  This would be an intensifying storm with a trough yanking it poleward and going west of New England.  Maybe my weenism is getting hold of me this afternoon.  Hold on for quite a ride over the next 36 hours!?!

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s very impressive for sure...wonder if it actually verify’s?    

Even a 15% reduction is damage. Keep it west

[CoastalWx]

3K NAM much more tamer compared to hrrr.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s very impressive for sure...wonder if it actually verify’s?    

That’s awfully high. I don’t think it verifies.

[Damage In Tolland]

Plan on 50-60 mph with severe gusts to 70 in CT. If you plan on that you won’t be disappointed if  you are buying on the 70-90 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3K NAM much more tamer compared to hrrr.

I’ve been noticing even the NAM is like 30 knots less with the LLJ than the euro. 

If the euro verified, even I would admit that there is some decent wind potential away from the south coast, but the solutions with like 65-70kt at 850 are kind of meh for interior outside of some rogue gusts in cells. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s awfully high. I don’t think it verifies.

Ya, no way that is gonna happen I agree. 

[snowman21]

25 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

If it is upgraded at 5pm to a hurricane (which would be my guess)  can they super impose a hurricane watch over a tropical storm warning for areas up the coast?  Don't know if that can be done?

Yes it can be done. You will see it on the NHC warning/cone map as a pink line (hurricane watch) within the blue line (tropical storm warning).

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve been noticing even the NAM is like 30 knots less with the LLJ than the euro. 

If the euro verified, even I would admit that there is some decent wind potential away from the south coast, but the solutions with like 65-70kt at 850 are kind of meh for interior outside of some rogue gusts in cells. 

What's sort of interesting about this storm in general is that decent mixing in the boundary layer is progged. Very rare to see on a southerly flow event. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

What's sort of interesting about this storm in general is that decent mixing in the boundary layer is progged. Very rare to see on a southerly flow event. 

But what do you think the odds are that that actually verifies as progged?   Pretty low?