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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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NHC:
 

Quote

"The last data received from a previous Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft, along with recent satellite and radar 
imagery, indicate that Isaias has weakened to a tropical storm due 
to a combination of shear, dry air and interaction with Andros 
Island earlier today. The initial intensity of 60 kt is based on 
SFMR surface wind speeds of near 60 kt in the northeastern quadrant 
on the last flight. A new reconnaissance mission into the cyclone is 
currently ongoing and will provide new data concerning the Isaias' 
intensity."

"A combination of Isaias moving over the warm Gulfstream waters 
during the convective maximum period and increasing frictional 
convergence due to land interaction with Florida should lead to an 
increase in deep convection near and over the center, as shown by 
simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model. As a result, 
Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane status tonight, as shown by 
the HWRF and HMON model fields. By 36 hours and beyond, the global 
models are in good agreement that an approaching mid- to upper-level 
trough will increase southwesterly vertical wind shear, which 
should result in gradual weakening until Isais becomes an 
extratropical cyclone in about 96 hours. The new NHC intensity 
forecast is closest to the HMON in 12 hours and closely follows the 
IVCN and HCCA consensus models after 36 hours."

 

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53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sell all 

Ha what changed from this morning for you?  You were telling ORH/Will that making any determinations today was way too early... then like 2 hours later it's completely done and over with?

I get the "post traumatic drought disorder" that's going on right now, but the UKMET, EURO and GFS lit the swath of heavy rain pretty much over you today.

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha what changed from this morning for you?  You were telling ORH/Will that making any determinations today was way too early... then like 2 hours later it's completely done and over with?

I get the "post traumatic drought disorder" that's going on right now, but the UKMET, EURO and GFS lit the swath of heavy rain pretty much over you today.

Group Texts from Scoots , Ryan and Gibbs. We done . When they all mail it in.. we end 

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This thing has literally blown up in the last hour. Radar pressentation (while not the end all be all of organization) underwent a 180. Seems crazy that it could be possible, but I cant say for certain that LLC didn't tug 15 miles  NNE under the deep convection that just exploded and line up with that ring of convection that looks like a developing eye wall. 

Sam Lillo was impressed via twitter 

 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This thing has literally blown up in the last hour. Radar pressentation (while not the end all be all of organization) underwent a 180. Seems crazy that it could be possible, but I cant say for certain that LLC didn't tug 15 miles  NNE under the deep convection that just exploded and line up with that ring of convection that looks like a developing eye wall. 

Sam Lillo was impressed via twitter 

 

Dilf Tug?

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58 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This thing has literally blown up in the last hour. Radar pressentation (while not the end all be all of organization) underwent a 180. Seems crazy that it could be possible, but I cant say for certain that LLC didn't tug 15 miles  NNE under the deep convection that just exploded and line up with that ring of convection that looks like a developing eye wall. 

Sam Lillo was impressed via twitter 

 

I miss Sam, His snowfall maps in the winter were very elongated and uplifting.

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The heaviest rain shifted west on the 18z Euro just like the other models.

Looking at the Euro there is a strip of rain through New England while Isaias is still way down the coast.  Would this be considered a PRE  and are models like the Euro able to pick up such an event?  Euro ends at 12Z Wed but there is still more precip to come.  Looks like 3-5"  Western CN,  West Central Mass into NH   

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Looking at the Euro there is a strip of rain through New England while Isaias is still way down the coast.  Would this be considered a PRE  and are models like the Euro able to pick up such an event?  Euro ends at 12Z Wed but there is still more precip to come.  Looks like 3-5"  Western CN,  West Central Mass into NH   

It's a pretty solid pattern for a PRE based on the conceptual models. 

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