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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

June Discussion

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22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

The heat kicked in this morning.  Welcome to met summer, everyone. 

5 months from now weenie's will be scanning the model-horizon for snow chances.

38° here should be the last until fall.

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

LEW 29°. Congrats dryslot.

Looks like 28/29° at BML and probably 29° at HIE. CON 33°. 

Estcourt Station wins the non ASOS award with 24°. 

Gardens which saw 90s last week 

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A weak disturbance approaches from Canada today. After a dry
start to the day, a period of clouds and scattered light showers
will develop late morning and afternoon, then dissipate early
tonight. Midwest high pressure then brings drier weather to
Southern New England tonight. Clouds return on Tuesday. Not a
washout but a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms
midweek followed by drier but warm weather Thursday, this
occurring behind a departing weak cold front. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms may return Fri and Sat ahead of the next cold
front. Dry, less humid and cooler weather likely follows Sunday
behind the departing front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Shortwave trough sweeps across New England today, bringing with
it a cold pool aloft that destabilizes the airmass. (500-mb
temperatures will be -25C to -28C. Model cross-sections
continue to show a layer of moist air between 850-mb and 700-mb.
PW values through the layer will be 0.6 inches or less...mostly
less. So not a lot of moisture. But daytime solar heating near
the ground and cold advection aloft will combine to bring lift
to the airmass, and this may convert some of that moisture over
to scattered showers.

The mixed layer will be deep again, like yesterday, reaching
near 775 mb. Temps at that level will be equiv to 2-5C at 850
mb, supporting max temps in the 60s...a few upper 50s possible.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

340 AM update ...

Highlights...

* Late Wed aftn/eve - not a washout but possible Showers/T-storm

* Thursday - could be the pick of the week, warm but dry

* Fri/Sat - not a washout but possible showers/T-storms

* Sunday - Dry, less humid & cooler weather likely

Synoptic Overview ... fast/progressive northern stream will result
in some weather impacts/changes every 1-2 days and given fast upper
air pattern low predictability on precise timing of fronts and
associated timing of rain/thunder chances. Also given NW flow aloft
lots of uncertainty on eastward propagation of upstream convection
and associated warm sector into SNE. Given this will lean heavily on
ensembles and less on deterministic guidance. Upper air pattern then
becomes more amplified this weekend leading to increased forecast
confidence.

Tue night ... deamplifying short wave and weak associated surface
low in the NW flow aloft yields lots of clouds for SNE but likely
not much if any shower activity given dry air over SNE. Clouds and
SW winds will result in seasonable temperatures with lows in the
50s.

Wed/Wed night ... should be a period of dry weather the first half
of the day behind departing short wave from Tue night. However
fast/progressive flow aloft has next northern stream short wave
approaching SNE late in the day. Model consensus suggest NW flow
precludes warm sector from advecting into our region. Thus chance of
scattered showers and elevated convection.  PWATs climb to 1.5 to 2"
depending on model guidance. Therefore brief heavy downpours
possible. Given NW flow aloft some uncertainty how far east elevated
convection and heavy rain potential will track. True warm sector
airmass appears to remain to our southwest, this will limit highs to
75-80 and dew pts 55-60.

Thursday ... should be the pick of the week with dry post frontal
airmass overspreading the region. Warm with +13C at 850 mb but model
soundings indicating mixing to 800 mb along with downsloping west
winds up to 25 mph. Given these parameters sided with the warmer
guidance with highs 80-85, few upper 80s possible. Westerly winds
will dry out the blyr keeping dew pts in the 50s and humidity levels
tolerable.

Friday ... northern stream short wave and associated cold front
approach the region from the west. Southern stream moisture may be
pulled/captured northward into SNE increasing deep layer moisture
and chances of convection. 850 mb temps climbing to about +15C so
with partial sunshine 80-85 should be attainable. Not as comfortable
as Thu as dew pts climb toward 60.

Next Weekend ... chance of scattered showers and T-storms Sat
depending on exact departure time of the cold front. Should be post
frontal by Sunday with drier, cooler and less humid weather.

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34 here.   We brought in all the outside plants and fortunately held off on planting things in the ground over the weekend.  Three of the rooms look like a greenhouse at the moment with so many seed trays and terracotta pots in them.

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57 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

33.4F. I hope our tomatoes are ok

No winter for 5 months 

That’s cold for nightshades, probably borderline. 

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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Low of 36F here this morning.  That’s got to be a June record here. 

This mornings low temperature of 37 degrees was not only a record low temperature for the day,  but also for the month of June.  Our weather records at the office here in Nashua NH started in  1983.  Prior record low June temperature was 38 degrees.

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Frosty 27 here, my coldest June temp since Fort Kent.  3 days ago was my warmest mean and minimum here in May.  Slight variability.

  • Haha 1

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

LEW 29°. Congrats dryslot.

Looks like 28/29° at BML and probably 29° at HIE. CON 33°. 

Estcourt Station wins the non ASOS award with 24°. 

I don't think my plants enjoyed this, I had 31°F here.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don't think my plants enjoyed this, I had 31°F here.

 We had that issue about a week and a half ago. We had just planted a couple of mimosa trees and had a slight frost down here in Westfield.  They seem to be holding on with just a couple of burnt tips.

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Should be a good surge of heat after the 10th -11th, but otherwise kind of boring wx. Maybe some warmth and dews at times mid and late week..esp SNE.

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1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

 We had that issue about a week and a half ago. We had just planted a couple of mimosa trees and had a slight frost down here in Westfield.  They seem to be holding on with just a couple of burnt tips.

Just stuck my head in the garden and it looked ok but will check later today, I probably should have known better when i saw dews in the 20's last night.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Should be a good surge of heat after the 10th -11th, but otherwise kind of boring wx. Maybe some warmth and dews at times mid and late week..esp SNE.

It's already rebounded to 55F, so it's pretty nice out right now.  Not able to enjoy it though.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be a good surge of heat after the 10th -11th, but otherwise kind of boring wx. Maybe some warmth and dews at times mid and late week..esp SNE.

Tried to tell em’ . You know how that goes 

  • Weenie 4

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