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stormtracker

January 18th Event

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Unfortunately it's pretty common until inside of 72 hours. The vast majority of our events are figured out until inside of 3 days. 

True.  And since the vast majority of Day 5 threats are likely to fail (just averages/climo), threads started at Day 5 usually don’t work out.  

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2-4 is a LOT from a storm cutting over Chicago in the middle of an uber ridge.  

LOL it is and always was. We don’t get snow from lows in Iowa. The only real chance was to get it to trend south. This isn’t a cutter. This is a Midwest storm lol

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Pretty remarkable how things turned bad within minutes of this thread being opened (right before yesterday’s 12z Euro).  


I think it was last year where we deleted/locked the Storm thread and things improved. Wouldn’t hurt.
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Its pulling at hairs and its not really significant but the ICON somehow manages to be slightly better with a little initial snow in Central MD despite being a bit worse early on...grasping. Its still cold-ish until 00z

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14 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

ICON is basically all frozen 95 north and west. 

I still think ice is a real threat. Im just am not a fan of ice so I don’t talk about it much.  

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Gfs holds onto 850s just a bit longer this run...see if it made a difference in a second 

Looks like it did to me..more snow than 12z for me anyway 

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 

1579413600-VfCHH61RprU.png

With 96 hours to go that map at least keeps us in the game.  Obviously it could trend into a Quebec special, but a couple hundred miles south over 4 days amongst friends is doable.

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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Sleet totals WB 18Z GFS

 

Column looks good for that area in southern/eastern PA. Most of that would be snow, although a good amount of it would be low ratio stuff with some sleet if this verified verbatim.

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Im curious to see the meso models  when they come into range by Thursday.  If they start showing a bit better initial waa thump then that might be all most need to hold onto the column long enough for a 2-4" before sleet / ice. We need like .3 to .5" in 6hrs I'd think to help hold the column longer. Still a wayys to go with this

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22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Im curious to see the meso models  when they come into range by Thursday.  If they start showing a bit better initial waa thump then that might be all most need to hold onto the column long enough for a 2-4" before sleet / ice. We need like .3 to .5" in 6hrs I'd think to help hold the column longer. Still a wayys to go with this

WAA thump will be hard.  The column will be so very, very dry with that 1046 HP strength and placement.  GFS at 1am Saturday.  The bottom 1/3rd of the snow growth zone is super dry and the balance of the descent for the snowflakes is an absolute desert with dews at the surface around 0F.

gfs_2020011418_084_39_25--77_25.thumb.png.9b6b743ace7a6d0588493d541a09998c.png

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18z euro is souther/colder. Small change but every inch makes a diference in these parts. Run ends at hr90 so don't know if it made any difference. 

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1 hour ago, das said:

WAA thump will be hard.  The column will be so very, very dry with that 1046 HP strength and placement.  GFS at 1am Saturday.  The bottom 1/3rd of the snow growth zone is super dry and the balance of the descent for the snowflakes is an absolute desert with dews at the surface around 0F.

gfs_2020011418_084_39_25--77_25.thumb.png.9b6b743ace7a6d0588493d541a09998c.png

Thanks for posting btw

Where is that local?

I plugged in Gfs at 12z Saturday right as precip enters (Winchester,Va) and it looks better but still a little dry .

 

 

PhotoPictureResizer_200114_191750796_crop_1422x1179.jpg

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Thanks for posting btw

Where is that local?

I plugged in Gfs at 12z Saturday right as precip enters ( Winchester,Va) and it looks better but still a little dry .

PhotoPictureResizer_200114_191750796_crop_1422x1179.jpg

It's point and click on northern MoCo (Clarksburg-ish).  6 hours later and 50 miles WSW to Winchester, I am not surprised to see saturation.  But, by then, we're losing the 850's...

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z euro is souther/colder. Small change but every inch makes a diference in these parts. Run ends at hr90 so don't know if it made any difference. 

The primary is south but that hadn’t mattered at all on past runs. It has no WAA surge to the east. Precip is nowhere near us at 12z. That run won’t end well imo. 

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13 minutes ago, das said:

It's point and click on northern MoCo (Clarksburg-ish).  6 hours later and 50 miles WSW to Winchester, I am not surprised to see saturation.  But, by then, we're losing the 850's...

Yea...being only 6 hr increments I picked a spot ( Winchester) that showed the initial waa leaf just beginning. Doesn't look like we waist alot of qpf, no? At that local and particular time it looks like its moistening up decent? 850s also are still solid to the south and west at 12z . 

Definitely a fairly dry airmass ahead... no doubt . It could be dryer though . Another reason we need QPF to increase and quicker onset 

 

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18z Eps has a bit less ridging ahead of our system.  Also a tick wetter . 850s hang on longer as well .Babbby steps

Also LP is about 3mb weaker on Saturday at 12z .

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z Eps has a bit less ridging ahead of our system.  Also a tick wetter . Babbby steps

Also LP is about 3mb weaker on Saturday at 12z .

Following the op but it was an incremental run over run improvement. 18z was friendly. No big shifts or anything but the bleeding stopped... for now

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25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z Eps has a bit less ridging ahead of our system.  Also a tick wetter . 850s hang on longer as well .Babbby steps

Also LP is about 3mb weaker on Saturday at 12z .

18z NAM showed a bit less ridging which is what PSU was Sharing this AM wrt GFS and Euro. I’m rooting that scenario on and will deal with whatever comes as it will lessen warm nose intrusion to mids. 

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