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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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Forecasted to get down to 35 here Tuesday morning which means most points west and north of us should get at least a frost if not a freeze Tuesday morning. Going from A/C on Thursday to heat on Monday. Wow.

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Forecasted to get down to 35 here Tuesday morning which means most points west and north of us should get at least a frost if not a freeze Tuesday morning. Going from A/C on Thursday to heat on Monday. Wow.

First real Taste!! c904652bb4edba9570e128c1f00e7627.jpg



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Pretty impressive October snowfall going on in southern New England. From a hurricane to an east coast snowstorm. Hopefully that’s a sign we can get some coastal storms despite La Niña this year. One can only hope... 

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Just now, strongwxnc said:


Good lord..


.

Yeah literally lights out to 10's of millions of people, wind field is just stupid on this thing....and the foothills and mts gets a PRE event that dumps a foot of rain....so the center and east side gets basically a 6-10 hr long 50-70 mph wind event all the way to NE and the west side gets a foot of rain along the entire spine of the Apps.....insanely crazy run, luckily its 10 days out and a weenie run, but this storm is going to form and eventually come north....so maybe its not so far fetched after all. 

 

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Raleigh is going to get really close to breaking the record for latest first freeze.  December 3 is the record...   Officially, RDU only got down to 33 earlier this week.  
I don't see anything promising through at least November 20, unless that changes.

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4 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

Raleigh is going to get really close to breaking the record for latest first freeze.  December 3 is the record...   Officially, RDU only got down to 33 earlier this week.  
I don't see anything promising through at least November 20, unless that changes.

I’ll take the torch in November and the first half of December if it means winter drops the arctic hammer on us afterwards! 

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18 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’ll take the torch in November and the first half of December if it means winter drops the arctic hammer on us afterwards! 

not always

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34 minutes ago, eyewall said:

not always

Yes, but how many times have we seen an unusually cold late November/December, only to see the warmth return during the 'peak' winter timeframe?  I'd much rather see it this way!..

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3 hours ago, Snow dog said:

Yes, but how many times have we seen an unusually cold late November/December, only to see the warmth return during the 'peak' winter timeframe?  I'd much rather see it this way!..

Climatology speaking we are seeing new norms. Its hard to speak of past patterns when we are seeing new ones emerge yearly. 

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The pattern is totally opposite of where we want to be. NAO and AO is positive, and PNA is negative. I'm with you guys in preferring to see this pattern now and not in four or six weeks. I'm in the mindset that what goes up must eventually come down (indices wise).   

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19 hours ago, FallsLake said:

The pattern is totally opposite of where we want to be. NAO and AO is positive, and PNA is negative. I'm with you guys in preferring to see this pattern now and not in four or six weeks. I'm in the mindset that what goes up must eventually come down (indices wise).   

It could also hold on the entire winter. We have seen that before.

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11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It could also hold on the entire winter. We have seen that before.

Looking at the winter outlooks, it would seem that this pattern will repeat with quite a bit of frequency this winter. I'm betting I can get by with one tank of propane, so there is a silver lining.

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On 11/10/2020 at 12:41 PM, FallsLake said:

The pattern is totally opposite of where we want to be. NAO and AO is positive, and PNA is negative. I'm with you guys in preferring to see this pattern now and not in four or six weeks. I'm in the mindset that what goes up must eventually come down (indices wise).   

Agree 100%!!

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I’d rather be burning days in this pattern now than in December or January. I guess that’s my point. If it doesn’t change (last year) then we can sulk in March. Patterns that actually allow sustained cold are so fleeting in the south I feel the odds are greater we get it in the good months if we don’t waste it now. Absolutely no science or anecdotal evidence to that statement just a gut feeling I’ve had having lived my life in the south. If we were locked in an arctic pattern now we’d be enjoying our November morning freezes for a week then hoping for the pattern to “reload” until January 

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5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’d rather be burning days in this pattern now than in December or January. I guess that’s my point. If it doesn’t change (last year) then we can sulk in March. Patterns that actually allow sustained cold are so fleeting in the south I feel the odds are greater we get it in the good months if we don’t waste it now. Absolutely no science or anecdotal evidence to that statement just a gut feeling I’ve had having lived my life in the south. If we were locked in an arctic pattern now we’d be enjoying our November morning freezes for a week then hoping for the pattern to “reload” until January 

Nailed it there Northhills.  I remember several cold Novembers where the cold flipped to warm around early to mid December and JB would say “what happens in November, the winter will remember”.  The problem is that it wouldn’t usually flip back until March or so and we’d have a cold miserable spring.  So,  I’m all on board with the current pattern holding another 4-6 weeks with a flip in time for the holidays.  
TW

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I can pretty much guarantee something epic will happen this winter (whether it be torch or winter storms). It's 2020, the year of insanity.  But I agree, let's take this shi* pattern during the period we hardly ever get winter weather outside the mountains. It can only get better from here. The GFS in the past day or two has relaxed off it's torch the entire run.

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On 11/14/2020 at 7:23 PM, Wow said:

We're long due for something good.  The last real good pattern I remember was the big -NAO winters 10 years ago. 

I seem to remember 2018 spending 7 days in a row below freezing with multiple snows even down East... mostly i agree, but that was epic! 

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On 11/14/2020 at 7:23 PM, Wow said:

We're long due for something good.  The last real good pattern I remember was the big -NAO winters 10 years ago. 

Snow pack looks reasonable in Canada.  Hudson Bay starting to Ice over.

Overall snow pack has grown in Russia and etc.

But over the last decade snow and ice pack in those places have grown irrelevant in the end as far as influencing the NA and Conus pattern. 

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3 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

Early December might have some potential. 
 

 

Yeah, the PNA is crucial for us. It looks to go positive in the LR. Hopefully we can get it to stay positive for an extended period. 

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