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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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6 hours ago, Solak said:

GFS 12z for 4/15

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_27.png

When no one is here to see your post, its like it never even happened.  You should stir the pot and start a snow thread for it.  :lol:

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GFS has really pulled back on precip amounts for this next event. Gone from over 3.5" to now (12z Friday) just 0.67" (RDU area)

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Happy Easter Everybody!

Looking ahead into next week, we could see another chance of frost and a day that stays in the 40s. We all know the days of heat and humidity are getting closer. Cherish any cool/cold weather we can get now.

 

<from RAH>

High temps on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid 60s north to the mid 70s south, with lows on Wednesday morning in the 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Wednesday, which will be greatly affected by the precip and may not occur until very late in the day are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s, with perhaps a few upper 50s across southern portions of the area. However, we could see temps remain/drop in the 40s across a good portion of the day across the Piedmont and northern and central Coastal Plain. Wednesday night through Saturday: Cool high pressure will build into and across the area Wednesday night through Friday. This will result in cool temps for mid April, with below normal temps through Friday morning. Expect high temps on Thursday in the lower to mid 60s. High temps on Friday should rebound to near normal, as the surface high shifts to the east and a warming return flow returns. Thus expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Morning low are expected to range from 35-40 on Thursday morning and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Friday morning. Thus, we may have the potential for some frost again across portions of the area late week.

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I've seen it snow in April. A week before was in the 90s.

It does happen even though rarely. I was in middle school. I think it was April of 99 or 00.

 

Any way. Kinda of depressing seeing the front stalled in N Fl the last day or so.

So close but yet so far. Last good rain we had was on the 5th. That was a surprise.

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On 4/8/2020 at 2:17 PM, Solak said:

GFS 12z for 4/15

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_27.png

Dang, this really validated!!  Snowing up in the VA and WVA hill country along the I81 and I77 corridors.  

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Severe weather possible again this Sunday

 

12 Euro most aggressive with a 1004 low in NW Texas at 12z and 995 mb in SC/GA at 12z Monday

 

another event possible mid next week (gfs, CMC) as more southern  jet energy moving in

 

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3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

Severe weather possible again this Sunday

 

12 Euro most aggressive with a 1004 low in NW Texas at 12z and 995 mb in SC/GA at 12z Monday

 

another event possible mid next week (gfs, CMC) as more southern  jet energy moving in

 

Noticed both of those things on Pivotal wx.   Gonna get active, but the south or any part of the country doesn't need it particularly at this time.

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overnight event deep south

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0345 AM CDT THU APR 16 2020  
  
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION  
  
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
MOVING QUICKLY FROM TX SUNDAY/D4 MORNING TO GA BY 12Z MONDAY/D5. LOW  
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE RED RIVER DURING THE DAY  
SUNDAY, SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 00Z. AHEAD OF  
THE LOW, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES,  
WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS LIKELY INTO CENTRAL MS, AL, AND GA, WITH  
LOW 70S F ALONG THE COAST. MUCAPE TO AT LEAST 2000 J/KG IS LIKELY BY  
18Z FROM TX INTO AL, WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND 500 MB  
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -10 TO -12 C.   
  
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM RELATIVELY EARLY OVER EAST TX, WHERE THE  
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS  
ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY, WITH AN EVENTUAL MCS LIKELY. A TORNADO OR  
TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. MEANWHILE TO  
THE EAST, WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WELL AHEAD OF THE  
MCS ACROSS MS, AL, GA, PRODUCING A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG WITH HAIL.   
  
THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK IN TERMS OF COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE AN MCS  
TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT QUICKLY MOVES ALONG THE EAST-WEST  
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS LA, MS, AL AND INTO GA. SIGNIFICANT  
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS PRESENT IN THE MODELS, SUPPORTING THE NOTION  
OF A WELL-DEFINED MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE SRH WILL NOT BE  
VERY STRONG INITIALLY, IT SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 00Z, WITH ENHANCED  
WIND AND/OR TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE CORRIDOR OF MAXIMUM THREAT WILL  
LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.  
  
FOR D5/MONDAY, THERE MAY BE A SMALL AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL  
REMAINING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER FAR EASTERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS  
AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES,  
THEREFORE PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WILL PRECLUDE AN AREA.  

 

 

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Obviously there is some science behind this annual ritual.  Perhaps when I get a little less busy at the hospital I will do some research as to why we see the NAO go negative each spring but not from December to February.    At this point it can't be coincidental or can it?  What atmospheric conditions are causing the teleconnections to get stuck in this same pattern?  During the 70's and 80's we had a predominantly negative NAO, now it seems we have flipped the script. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml   

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Boy, the GFS has really cut back on precipitation amounts for the next 2 systems. (RDU area). Now just showing 0.20 for Thursday, and 0.12 for the weekend event. Meanwhile, NWS is still calling for over an inch for tomorrow/tomorrow night. NAM 12z drops 2.38" tomorrow. So, I'm going to go out on a limb and say we'll probably get some rain, and it could be a little, or could be a lot.

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19 hours ago, Solak said:

Boy, the GFS has really cut back on precipitation amounts for the next 2 systems. (RDU area). Now just showing 0.20 for Thursday, and 0.12 for the weekend event. Meanwhile, NWS is still calling for over an inch for tomorrow/tomorrow night. NAM 12z drops 2.38" tomorrow. So, I'm going to go out on a limb and say we'll probably get some rain, and it could be a little, or could be a lot.

Looking very likely the less than .20 solution will verify! Ineffective moisture transport because of upstream convection robbing moisture in the deep south. Looks like a snowstorm where we have the cold air but moisture isn't cutting it! Good news is we are sitting pretty with rainfall after a bit of a dry stretch and don't particularly need it! Enjoy these cool wet days as they will be waning before the summer torch inevitably takes over in a month or so

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Also on the bright side, it also tempers the chance of severe weather, at least for 'our' area.

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Heat looks to build in the lower plains and Texas late next week. Still seasonal or cool on the east coast until next weekend at least though.  

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Tornado watch just went up for parts of the southern mountains in N.C. upper SC and northeast Ga... thought to myself that’s not right... went out on the deck.... Wow, amazed to see the shear in the atmosphere... clouds are moving in two directions... one level moving north northeast and the other level moving west northwest... think it’s going to be a bumpy night here on the edge of the escarpment in N.C.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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Could be severe weather for Carolinas Wednesday, looks more like a squall line than embedded cells but could be a strong one Wednesday evening 

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4 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Ouch, not looking forward to the heat advertised for next weekend. So beautiful today!

Well it will be May and it's only a few days.

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2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Could be severe weather for Carolinas Wednesday, looks more like a squall line than embedded cells but could be a strong one Wednesday evening 

Yeah I noticed that with the next cold front coming in.

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13 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I noticed that with the next cold front coming in.

What's the timing? We're flying out of HHH Thu early AM. Will the front be through by then? I think the Euro is the slowest.

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9 hours ago, vortmax said:

What's the timing? We're flying out of HHH Thu early AM. Will the front be through by then? I think the Euro is the slowest.

From RAH:

Models continue to suggest a quick hitting round of convection 
capable of producing heavy rain and possibly strong to severe 
thunderstorms moving into central NC from the west Wednesday 
evening, through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday and 
offshore by Thursday evening.
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