MaineJayhawk Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I trust their ability to diagnose daily departures...I don't blame them for not forecasting 30 degree departures at 6 days lead time...same reason you don't forecast 30" of snow 6 days out. Actual likely closer to climo. lol … the Rev scratches his head at this statement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Speaking of daily departures, I’m at +13.4 thru 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 What are the big 4 records for warmest January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 This mid and extended range doesn't scream historic warmth to me for anyone living N of roughly the Del Marva latitudes... not that anyone asked - There's too much confluence modeled to swing through southern Canada and the correction vector should be toward increasing sfc PP along the 50th parallel up there underneath...which means the obvious down to 40 N. If for some reason we can tip toe through the next 4 to 10 days without getting a +PP in southern Ontario... we'd still need a well-mixed dry adiabatic atmosphere on long fetched continental flow, and so far, the warm sectors that - I feel - are over done because of the first point, are dirty anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: What are the big 4 records for warmest January? According to BOX climate page BOS 39.3 (1913) ORH 34.6 (1913) PVD 38.6 (1932) BDL 37.7 (1932) If we're converting those into departures for 1981-2010, we'd need something like a +10 to +11 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 17 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: Don't worry 12Z will whiff SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: According to BOX climate page BOS 39.3 (1913) ORH 34.6 (1913) PVD 38.6 (1932) BDL 37.7 (1932) If we're converting those into departures for 1981-2010, we'd need something like a +10 to +11 for the month. Def doable... BOS +13.4 ORH +11.0 BDL +12.1 ...so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 let's shatter some records 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Def doable... BOS +13.4 ORH +11.0 BDL +12.1 ...so far Not with the huge flip to cold after the 20-22 period . AN sure and probably WAN, but nothing near records 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not with the huge flip to cold after the 20-22 period . AN sure and probably WAN, but nothing near records I’ve heard this January 20th mentioned a lot. What happens on the 20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I’ve heard this January 20th mentioned a lot. What happens on the 20th? He’s big in that day, but if it changes a week before or after he’ll pull a Judah and call it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not with the huge flip to cold after the 20-22 period . AN sure and probably WAN, but nothing near records Sure, double digit deperatures aren't exactly easy, but it's possible Last 10 years JAN BDL 2019 -0.3 2018 -0.9 2017 +6.6 2016 +4.1 2015 -2.8 2014 -1.6 2013 +2.5 2012 +5.5 2011 -3.1 2010 +1.4 Ten Year Average +1.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I’ve heard this January 20th mentioned a lot. What happens on the 20th? On or about that date is when the changes happening globally now over the Far East and Scandinavia translates to global atmospheric shuffle and we lose the PAC flow. Ask Scooter what he thinks about the last 10 days or so of Jan . See what he says 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I’ve heard this January 20th mentioned a lot. What happens on the 20th? MLK Day? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: On or about that date is when the changes happening globally now over the Far East and Scandinavia translates to global atmospheric shuffle and we lose the PAC flow. Ask Scooter what he thinks about the last 10 days or so of Jan . See what he says That was a surprisingly well articulated description, thanks. Put me in the camp that these pattern changes take a bit longer than advertised, but eventually it’ll change. The ebbs and flows of NE Winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I'll sell this happening this month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'll sell this happening this month... Yikes. That’s like April climo here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1913 weenies jumping off their horse and buggys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 What a disgusting month that was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 54 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yikes. That’s like April climo here . There have been some Aprils where we have been longing for that type of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Yikes. That’s like April climo here . Just curious..what was February 1913 like? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 18 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Just curious..what was February 1913 like? Cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: 1913 weenies jumping off their horse and buggys 0 days of sleighing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Cold. And pretty crappy for snow too. At least quick glance at BOS. Maybe it was better in the interior. That was a putrid stretch for BOS snowfall. 8 straight winters with below normal snowfall. Thy oxen got tired with so few days of sleighing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I'll sell this happening this month... yeah, no way BOS sees any lows like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: And pretty crappy for snow too. At least quick glance at BOS. Maybe it was better in the interior. That was a putrid stretch for BOS snowfall. 8 straight winters with below normal snowfall. Thy oxen got tired with so few days of sleighing. Flow was too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: What a disgusting month that was. People would be jumping on the CC train like crazy if that happened. Back then people had actual problems to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Next weekends cutter on the 0z GFS would be a snow and ice storm for CNE/NNE, Just like all these other ones that look to shift east over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Next weekends cutter on the 0z GFS would be a snow and ice storm for CNE/NNE, Just like all these other ones that look to shift east over time. Oof....for those 60F to powderfreak calls. GGEM was even starting to look precarious for SNE too but both medium range models first out of the gate tonight trended that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Oof....for those 60F to powderfreak calls. GGEM was even starting to look precarious for SNE too but both medium range models first out of the gate tonight trended that way Seems like most of these lakes cutters dampen out and end up further east as we get into the mid range, Yeah those 60F calls up in NNE are tough to achieve this time of year with clouds and low sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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