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Minor to moderate winter event M-Tue Dec 16-17, 2019

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9 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

I haven't been following, but best of luck for snow for y'all. Probably all rain here, maybe a few flakes, but confident it stays as rain here.

What’s your location?

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Temps get colder when the precip comes in
Let's not turn this into a crap show like people did the last few storms. This isn't a NYC storm. I know you love snow, I do even more. But let's be clear here, you can't wish for something to happen that just won't. Most likely all rain for NYC. Maybe some flurries first. This is going to be a serious ice event just to our north. That's the real story here.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Lol it’s 33 degrees how’s that not cold! You ever heard of dynamic and evaporative cooking? 

Lol. please stop

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Also...final reminder that this isnt the NYC forum, its the ny metro forum. If parts of the metro area, including areas ~30 miles from nyc, are going to see frozen precip, it gets discussed here. 

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the increase in freezing rain just north and west is very concerning.

5456C38D-CAF5-4D1D-8364-A2A61FDD8765.png.f5fcf872fce97c4874b0107b313802b5.png

 

That is very dangerous, usually places like White Plains don't get significant ZR but in this setup it really could happen.

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the increase in freezing rain just north and west is very concerning.

5456C38D-CAF5-4D1D-8364-A2A61FDD8765.png.f5fcf872fce97c4874b0107b313802b5.png

 

I’ve witnessed some bad icing events in northern NJ over the years but I don’t think I’ve ever seen over .5 inches of ice accretion. Can only imagine the damage an inch would cause. 

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Is that really a possibility   That is major power outages, with sub zero temps all week.

NWS has not even mentioned that kind of ice event all week, and now still says only up to .2  ZR possible.

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25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

That is very dangerous, usually places like White Plains don't get significant ZR but in this setup it really could happen.

 

22 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I’ve witnessed some bad icing events in northern NJ over the years but I don’t think I’ve ever seen over .5 inches of ice accretion. Can only imagine the damage an inch would cause. 

A few miles distance can make a big difference as to where the most significant icing sets up. A small change in temperature of a degree or two is all that it takes. Sometimes it just comes down to nowcast time. But areas that see icing will also have to cope with stronger winds on Wednesday with the sharp Arctic front. Then the very cold temperatures.

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Don't really have time to make a map but here is my general thinking on the snow.

Central Park 1-2"

EWR 1-2"

LGA T

JFK T

ISP 1-3"

BDR 2-4"

SWF 3-6"

HPN 2-4"

MMU 1-3"

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the increase in freezing rain just north and west is very concerning.

5456C38D-CAF5-4D1D-8364-A2A61FDD8765.png.f5fcf872fce97c4874b0107b313802b5.png

 

It'll be close temp wise but yes the northern 1/3 of NJ into CT could deal with very messy conditions.

Hopefully things trend warmer.

Generally anyone near 30F with dews in the teens currently will have problems later today and especially tomorrow.

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Given current trends I decided to make an ice map. Anyone in the red or purple could locally see >0.50" but I think anything approaching that range is highly localized.

tUe1rJM.png

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RGEM seems to agree with NAM, worst of the ice storm will be the immediate northwest burbs

The thing to consider will be temps, 32 and ZR is not the same as 20s with ZR

Think further up in the HV there will be more mixing with sleet.  

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The 12z RGEM is really bad in the ice department for a lot of the area with temps in the 20's at the surface and warming aloft. Hope it ends up being more sleet.

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Very rarely do forecast models nail down the exact freezing rain amounts. It's just something they struggle with. I think 0.25 will be the max in some areas. Hopefully not more.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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