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Minor to moderate winter event M-Tue Dec 16-17, 2019

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2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

How much does the euro 06z run have for us Ant... I heard it went way south!

Every model is getting drier for our area

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Its remarkable how similar through the 06z runs the RGEM and Euro are on evolution through tomorrow night.  Even the GFS is close to them.  The NAM continues to be way different 

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The Euro suite of products has been trending deeper with the wave up over Alberta and Manitoba, which feeds into the 50/50 low and places confluence farther south in the Northeast. I'm not sure most of the guidance is initializing all the shortwaves correctly looking at WV imagery this morning. 

00Z EPS trends valid at 00Z this evening below, the 06Z was even stronger w/ that low in central Canada.

trend-eps-2019121500-f024.500h_anom.conus.gif.81b1361689146f7eef3a76b2ab86a307.gif

 

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This area is really dependent on the initial push,  the RGEM for example has it making it to our area, some models don't. That would be your snow producer, anything after that would likely be rain coast/ice inland.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

All rain for NYC  on the Nam

The initial precip dries up as it heads east.

If there is no initial precip I think it's an all rain event for the city. Maybe 32 degree ZR for Bronx/Upper Manhattan at the start but you won't see much icing until inland. The city needs that initial push to come through, it would also help knock down temps to get that initial burst. 

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The 0z and 06z Euro were cold and suppressed.  The 6z ICON had a similar look but slightly warmer and wetter.  The global and regional Canadian appear to be in the middle of the model envelope in terms of temps. but also relatively wet (high QPF).  Snow and sleet down to near NYC switching transitioning to a significant ice event in NNJ and SENY.  The GFS and NAM are both warmer and show minimal frozen precip. in the immediate NYC area.  But both show ice for the northern burbs.

The suppressed Euro is the one thing that gives me pause.  It looks weird considering the mid-level features but you can't discount it.  Right now I think a compromise is the best way to go.  Minimal snow for the area with a light to moderate ice event north and northwest of the City.

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12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

If there is no initial precip I think it's an all rain event for the city. Maybe 32 degree ZR for Bronx/Upper Manhattan at the start but you won't see much icing until inland. The city needs that initial push to come through, it would also help knock down temps to get that initial burst. 

That initial push is dead it appears on most guidance now.  I don’t even think it’ll produce much for SPA or SW NJ as some models show because the trend has been to kill it earlier and earlier.  The Metro needs the main slug from the south to be earlier than currently expected.  The RGEM gets it in by 20-21Z or so and as a result north side a of metro see about 2-2.5 of snow with it.  The Euro doesn’t get it here til 01-02Z and by then it’s too late.  And the NAM is late and paltry.  

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Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Can anybody post 12z Euro? Interested in what it has for snow/sleet/zr  north and west being that it was further south. FWIW weather channel forecast upgraded me to 3-5 inches on Tuesday. 

Its mostly got 2-4 north of 287.  It ticked north.  The EPS seems slightly south of the Op showing about 2.5 N shore of LI to Bronx/Northern NYC.  Likely some sleet in those totals though 

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Another week and more massive forecasting busts.  This is due to the euro being really bad so far this year in the 2 to 5 day range. Heck it was even really bad last event at 12z the day the event was ongoing.  

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39 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

18z 12k.NAM bumped up totals a little vs.the12z run.

 

IMG_0210.PNG

Nam was more aggressive with the overrunning.  Have to watch that.

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Another week and more massive forecasting busts.  This is due to the euro being really bad so far this year in the 2 to 5 day range. Heck it was even really bad last event at 12z the day the event was ongoing.  

The euro has been really bad this season. Heck , it was even bad last season after the upgrade. 

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5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Another week and more massive forecasting busts.  This is due to the euro being really bad so far this year in the 2 to 5 day range. Heck it was even really bad last event at 12z the day the event was ongoing.  

Just yesterday morning, Joe Bastardi was hyping tomorrow into Tuesday as a 3-6 inch event with amounts up to 8 inches in NYC. Now, it’s a 1-2 inches of snow and sleet event even up here in Rockland, less than an inch for NYC

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just yesterday morning, Joe Bastardi was hyping tomorrow into Tuesday as a 3-6 inch event with amounts up to 8 inches in NYC. Now, it’s a 1-2 inches of snow and sleet event even up here in Rockland, less than an inch for NYC

Models suck 

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The 18z NAM looks to keep any rain limited to southern Westchester and southern Bergen on south.  It has maybe an inch or two of snow and sleet and then a few tenths of ice for the immediate N&W burbs.  Right on the border of a legitimately wintry event.  I'm not sure what those snowmaps above are showing.  Definitely overdone.

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8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just yesterday morning, Joe Bastardi was hyping tomorrow into Tuesday as a 3-6 inch event with amounts up to 8 inches in NYC. Now, it’s a 1-2 inches of snow and sleet event even up here in Rockland, less than an inch for NYC

It's sad that anyone even knows who Joe Bastardi is.  He does a disservice to the meteorological field.  He was exposed as a hypster fraud 20 years ago.

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4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 18z NAM looks to keep any rain limited to southern Westchester and southern Bergen on south.  It has maybe an inch or two of snow and sleet and then a few tenths of ice for the immediate N&W burbs.  Right on the border of a legitimately wintry event.  I'm not sure what those snowmaps above are showing.  Definitely overdone.

This. Those 10:1 ratio maps are way, way overdone. Showing sleet as snow. In reality it’s barely an inch of snow up here and less than an inch for city

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16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Another week and more massive forecasting busts.  This is due to the euro being really bad so far this year in the 2 to 5 day range. Heck it was even really bad last event at 12z the day the event was ongoing.  

I think the global medium range models have performed pretty well so far this winter.  Maybe I'm just old enough to remember when it was really a crapshoot beyond 3 days.  I can really see the improvements from 10 and 20 years ago.  These days people get upset when the thermal gradients shift 100 miles at 5 days out.  For a global model that's like a millimeter across a football field.

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

This. Those 10:1 ratio maps are way, way overdone. Showing sleet as snow. In reality it’s barely an inch of snow up here and less than an inch for city

It looks like it's showing freezing rain as snow too.

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Just now, eduggs said:

I think the global medium range models have performed pretty well so far this winter.  Maybe I'm just old enough to remember when it was really a crapshoot beyond 3 days.  I can really see the improvements from 10 and 20 years ago.  These days people get upset when the thermal gradients shift 100 miles at 5 days out.  For a global model that's like a millimeter across a football field.

 

Yeah honestly the Euro has been great so far.  It nailed all 3 events.  If you looked at the snow maps then it seems like it has been bad but its by far led the way with this event the entire way.  

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Yeah honestly the Euro has been great so far.  It nailed all 3 events.  If you looked at the snow maps then it seems like it has been bad but its by far led the way with this event the entire way.  

You are right.  People only seem to remember snow maps.  And snow accumulation and depth aren't even directly modeled geophysical parameters.  The ECMWF models literally dozens of parameters across the entire globe and people only consider one derived parameter from an individual run for a very localized area when evaluating model performance.

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