Brasiluvsnow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Only at the surface Guys a little help what's the difference between meter air temp and HPA air temp is one surface and the other just above the surface ? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 No surprise to see the models increase the overall precipitation amounts. That 200 KT jet streak to our northeast is near record levels for this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Depending how heavy this initial shot comes in it’s possible there could be a surprising 2-3 hour period of snow in the area. If it’s not heavy I’m not sure it’ll overcome the possible mid level warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 21 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: This is probably going to factor in to precip types later - 850 mb dew points were ~20C drier than modeled. Sheesh that’s a pretty big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 The streets here are covered with sand lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: The streets here are covered with sand lol don't worry the rain will wash it away. interesting NYC still uses sand, the state of CT banned it about 10 years ago (local towns can use it if they wish) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: The streets here are covered with sand lol At least they didn't throw an inch of salt down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: The streets here are covered with sand lol Sandstorm last night ? did you move to the desert ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: don't worry the rain will wash it away. interesting NYC still uses sand, the state of CT banned it about 10 years ago (local towns can use it if they wish) Banned sand? I thought we banned the salt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanman 06 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The streets here are covered with sand lol It’s not sand. DSNY uses salt. And yes we are out there spreading it , And spreading a lot. without anything coming down. Upper management knows best I guess. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Question is, if just some of these models hold serve, do they pop Ice Storm Warnings. The event is on top of us. Once that FZR starts falling it's too late. I try not to be the guy running around the office telling everyone the sky is falling but there's some potentially hugely significant impacts and I don't think people have any idea what's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said: Banned sand? I thought we banned the salt? other way around-the state can use salt/calcium Chloride on state roads. Towns can do as they wish, but Fairfield no longer uses sand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Depending how heavy this initial shot comes in it’s possible there could be a surprising 2-3 hour period of snow in the area. If it’s not heavy I’m not sure it’ll overcome the possible mid level warming That initial shot would also lead to more dynamic evaporational cooling putting areas closer or even in the city at greater risk for ZR overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Question is, if just some of these models hold serve, do they pop Ice Storm Warnings. The event is on top of us. Once that FZR starts falling it's too late. I try not to be the guy running around the office telling everyone the sky is falling but there's some potentially hugely significant impacts and I don't think people have any idea what's up.I believe 0.5" is the threshold to hoist warnings. I see NWS Pittsburgh issued them. If anyone is curious, here is the number of days since the last ice storm warning by WFOSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Having dews in the teens right now is a little concerning. WWA is up for my county though it's very borderline as the icing problems should be just north of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Praying for more sleet than ZR up here in Poughkeepsie, Duchess County. Hoping nobody across the board gets too much ZR. Dangerous stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 44 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Depending how heavy this initial shot comes in it’s possible there could be a surprising 2-3 hour period of snow in the area. If it’s not heavy I’m not sure it’ll overcome the possible mid level warming Steady light snow has broken out here. 33* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 35 minutes ago, Sanman 06 said: It’s not sand. DSNY uses salt. And yes we are out there spreading it , And spreading a lot. without anything coming down. Upper management knows best I guess. Lol It’s non stop with even a hint of wintery precip. I guess they aren’t concerned about killing already stressed street trees. I’m going to start taking salt accumulation obs here on the uws. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Cmc is very cold. Freezing line is just I mean just to the west of NYC. NYC is at 33 with heavy precip over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Having dews in the teens right now is a little concerning. WWA is up for my county though it's very borderline as the icing problems should be just north of us. Just so we’re all clear, you said nyc is an all rain event right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Nws should issue ice storm warnings for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Nws should issue ice storm warnings for inland areas. The criteria is 0.5". I don't think that will be met. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Nws should issue ice storm warnings for inland areas. There simply isn’t enough East gradient with this event to get areas just inland warm enough. We basically have winds going 060-070 tonight at 5-10kts. That works for the coast but might not even work for a place like EWR 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There simply isn’t enough East gradient with this event to get areas just inland warm enough. We basically have winds going 060-070 tonight at 5-10kts. That works for the coast but might not even work for a place like EWR I'm not even sure it will work for places like Southern Westchester/CT Coast which right now are not under a WWA even though several models show temps at or below freezing until daybreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 slice it and dice it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanman 06 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 43 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s non stop with even a hint of wintery precip. I guess they aren’t concerned about killing already stressed street trees. I’m going to start taking salt accumulation obs here on the uws. We will be laying down an inch or 2 of salt!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Snowing in midtown... light 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 The latest guidance suggests the potential for significant freezing rain not too far north and west of New York City. Based on the latest guidance, it is likely that an area stretching from West Milford, NJ across White Plains and to Danbury could pick up 0.10" to 0.25" freezing rain with the potential for more, especially in northwestern New Jersey. Some of the local media outlets (radio forecasts I heard coming into work this morning) are downplaying the freezing rain risk (the specific mention concerned not more than a few hundredths of an inch). However, those outlets may be using dated guidance and/or relying on the much warmer GFS to reach a conclusion that understates risk of icing. The 3 km NAM, 12 km NAM, and RGEM are very aggressive, both with amounts and the southern extent of the freezing rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The latest guidance suggests the potential for significant freezing rain not too far north and west of New York City. Based on the latest guidance, it is likely that an area stretching from West Milford, NJ across White Plains and to Danbury could pick up 0.10" to 0.25" freezing rain with the potential for more, especially in northwestern New Jersey. Some of the local media outlets (radio forecasts I heard coming into work this morning) are downplaying the freezing rain risk (the specific mention concerned not more than a few hundredths of an inch). However, those outlets may be using dated guidance and/or relying on the much warmer GFS to reach a conclusion that understates risk of icing. The 3 km NAM, 12 km NAM, and RGEM are very aggressive, both with amounts and the southern extent of the freezing rain. General public needs to take potential significant glaze accretion more seriously. Media outlets need to get updated fast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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