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wdrag

Minor to moderate winter event M-Tue Dec 16-17, 2019

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16 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I agree on the ice threat.  800mb temps still warm to about 5C right up through the mid-Hudson valley.  The 0z NAM increased the QPF with the first 6 hours of the main WAA push so there's a little snow thump there.  But after that mid-level warmth wins out like previous runs.  NW NJ keeps showing up as a focus area for icing potential.  But I think lots of areas from NEPA to SENY through SCT are at risk for some moderate ice.

NAM Soundings at MGJ show a sleet signature with the warm layer between 750-850. I think the icing threat will be more pronounced in NNJ

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16 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I agree on the ice threat.  800mb temps still warm to about 5C right up through the mid-Hudson valley.  The 0z NAM increased the QPF with the first 6 hours of the main WAA push so there's a little snow thump there.  But after that mid-level warmth wins out like previous runs.  NW NJ keeps showing up as a focus area for icing potential.  But I think lots of areas from NEPA to SENY through SCT are at risk for some moderate ice.

Agree with the thoughts on the interior sections with the icing potential. The CAD is tough to scour out in those areas. The only thing that might hold down the icing are the temperatures forecasted to be around the freezing mark instead of being in the mid 20's

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The Pacific jet pattern has really wiped out any Arctic air for us.

Normally we would be seeing much colder temps right now in the wake of the last system. 

This should've been a good SWFE but because there's no cold air to be found we're scraping the barrel again. 

Anyways definitely keep an eye on temps tonight. If they're on the warmer side then the system will end up warmer. If they're colder then it'll be colder. 

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14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

RGEM continues the colder trend, looks like a pretty impactful icing event for many in the area may be unfolding

Bad ice event just to the north and west of NYC. City starts off as snow then turns to ice then rain with temps in the mid  30s.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Bad ice event just to the north and west of NYC. City starts off as snow then turns to ice then rain with temps in the mid  30s.

If NYC's temps are 35+ tomorrow morning then you aren't gonna see much. 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Pacific jet pattern has really wiped out any Arctic air for us.

Normally we would be seeing much colder temps right now in the wake of the last system. 

This should've been a good SWFE but because there's no cold air to be found we're scraping the barrel again. 

Anyways definitely keep an eye on temps tonight. If they're on the warmer side then the system will end up warmer. If they're colder then it'll be colder. 

There's very few good SWFE events anywhere near the coast in this area, but this should be a pretty typical one if not even a warmer than usual one. Quick snow/sleet to rain on the coast, snow/sleet eventually to rain just inland, and icing further inland. The best area for this will be along I-90. I don't see anything to make this other than typical. SWFEs aren't friendly to this area and never will be. 

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If NYC's temps are 35+ tomorrow morning then you aren't gonna see much. 

The temp tomorrow morning has very little to do with what happens tomorrow night. The key to the storm will be how fast and heavy the initial precip comes in. If its heavy enough the dynamic cooling will allow for a period of snow or sleet

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58 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

There may be some dynamic cooling as frontogenesis increases late tomorrow evening, but with the SE ridge amped up like it is on the EPS below, it will be hard to avoid torching the layer just above the surface. This could be a fairly bad ice storm near White Plains, NNJ, southern CT imo.

m500za_f030_bg_NA.png.e479a40776a6e6e053d6e4d87c05948d.png

People need to look at the sounding on the NAM, that’s definitely not snow north and west of the city, there is a very pronounced mid-level warm nose. Verbatim, that’s a nasty ice storm NW of NYC if correct 

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13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

People need to look at the sounding on the NAM, that’s definitely not snow north and west of the city, there is a very pronounced mid-level warm nose. Verbatim, that’s a nasty ice storm NW of NYC if correct 

Yup, look at soundings not 850mb maps. Very easy for a sneaky 750-800mb warm layer to come in. In these the warm air often comes in first above 850mb.

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Good Monday morning everyone, It's Dec 16 and soon go-time for a widespread winter weather event that might not yield much snow-sleet in NYC but VERY close to the city there will be significant snow and ice, as noted by others previously. 

The city may see a period of flurries midday today?  The event is tonight-Tuesday which is a delay from two days ago (initial snow thrust down to the Mason Dixon line this morning instead of I78-I80).  Still while the modeling was ~60mi too far north, thats not too bad from two days ago. 

Added four graphics courtesy of Weather.US for the ECMWF, and one from the NWS experimental HREF glaze prediction, which better be wrong, or we've quite a few power outages tomorrow morning in the 1/4-1/2 inch glaze area from southern Ct to northwest NJ.  NWS WPC glaze and snow predictions are less. So there is uncertainty on amounts of snow-sleet/ice but we know something wintry will impact travel in our area later tonight through Tuesday.  Probably my last post on this, except post storm NOHRSC etc assessment of modeling. 

1502234904_ScreenShot2019-12-16at5_32_55AM.thumb.png.69cc7024632ddd521bfb043f9fe2b3dc.png849300422_ScreenShot2019-12-16at5_31_51AM.thumb.png.52ea08fc4934184dceed62f64d66891e.png

Screen Shot 2019-12-16 at 4.14.12 AM.png

Screen Shot 2019-12-16 at 4.04.27 AM.png

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Good Monday morning everyone, It's Dec 16 and soon go-time for a widespread winter weather event that might not yield much snow-sleet in NYC but VERY close to the city there will be significant snow and ice, as noted by others previously. 

The city may see a period of flurries midday today?  The event is tonight-Tuesday which is a delay from two days ago (initial snow thrust down to the Mason Dixon line this morning instead of I78-I80).  Still while the modeling was ~60mi too far north, thats not too bad from two days ago. 

Added four graphics courtesy of Weather.US for the ECMWF, and one from the NWS experimental HREF glaze prediction, which better be wrong, or we've quite a few power outages tomorrow morning in the 1/4-1/2 inch glaze area from southern Ct to northwest NJ.  NWS WPC glaze and snow predictions are less. So there is uncertainty on amounts of snow-sleet/ice but we know something wintry will impact travel in our area later tonight through Tuesday.  Probably my last post on this, except post storm NOHRSC etc assessment of modeling. 

1502234904_ScreenShot2019-12-16at5_32_55AM.thumb.png.69cc7024632ddd521bfb043f9fe2b3dc.png849300422_ScreenShot2019-12-16at5_31_51AM.thumb.png.52ea08fc4934184dceed62f64d66891e.png

Screen Shot 2019-12-16 at 4.14.12 AM.png

Screen Shot 2019-12-16 at 4.04.27 AM.png

6z shifted south

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Temps were well above the forecast this morning. Only got down to 34F.

This will be an all rain event from NYC south.

That's not how it works lol

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Areas just to the north and west of NYC  is anowier on the euro . NYC also sees some snow.

I am shocked there isnt a WWA for NYC. 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Temps were well above the forecast this morning. Only got down to 34F.

This will be an all rain event from NYC south.

Oh stop it dude! That’s just false the dew points are in the low 20’s

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15 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Oh stop it dude! That’s just false the dew points are in the low 20’s

Dew point is mportant. 

This isnt going to be a major event in NYC.  Snow to sleet to rain with temps in the low to mid 30s. Areas just got he west will have alot of problems.

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Dew pointed are more important. 

This isnt going to be a major event in NYC.  Snow to sleet to rain with temps in the low to mid 30s. Areas just got he west will have alot of problems.

Yea but this could end up being very icy tonight even for the five boroughs especially after the initial overrunning heavy snow that will stick. They should issue a winter weather advisory for sure

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1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Yea but this could end up being very icy tonight even for the five boroughs especially after the initial overrunning heavy snow that will stick. They should issue a winter weather advisory for sure

They should but they are so hesitant lately.

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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

That's not how it works lol

It reinforces my point that there's a lack of cold present. 

Only NW areas will get snow/ice, probably 30+ miles from the city. SNE should score.

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14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It reinforces my point that there's a lack of cold present. 

Only NW areas will get snow/ice, probably 30+ miles from the city. SNE should score.

Lol it’s 33 degrees how’s that not cold! You ever heard of dynamic and evaporative cooking? 

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14 minutes ago, Wild Turkey said:

So what is the timing of this storm? My wife is headed to New Providence today. Will she have trouble getting home this evening? 

The real precip comes in tonight around 7-9pm west to east!

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14 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Lol it’s 33 degrees how’s that not cold! You ever heard of dynamic and evaporative cooking? 

Temps get colder when the precip comes in

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