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Minor to moderate winter event M-Tue Dec 16-17, 2019

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43 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z euro is once again further south and colder . Snow to rain for the coast with ice inland.

The EPS almost looks as if it’s south of the Op but it’s hard to tell on what I’m seeing 

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I am watching this one for the educational value.          A summary of possible snow totals:     GFS   0"-1",   Cobb Method is 0" ,  GEM is 2" (but has lost the 6" it had for the 22nd),   EURO is 4", SREF is 1", UKMet is too secretive.

Prospects for any snow before year's end are dropping fast, so if you see some:

Catch a Falling Snowflake and Put It on Your Shovel-----Save It for the Next Snowless Day.

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49 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

I am watching this one for the educational value.          A summary of possible snow totals:     GFS   0"-1",   Cobb Method is 0" ,  GEM is 2" (but has lost the 6" it had for the 22nd),   EURO is 4", SREF is 1", UKMet is too secretive.

Prospects for any snow before year's end are dropping fast, so if you see some:

Catch a Falling Snowflake and Put It on Your Shovel-----Save It for the Next Snowless Day.

What?

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam is even more south and colder

Seems like it may have gotten a bit wetter too.  Not necessarily here but the QPF signal seemed more Euro like and consistent this run 

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52 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Seems like it may have gotten a bit wetter too.  Not necessarily here but the QPF signal seemed more Euro like and consistent this run 

Freezing line is near the city throughout the Nam. Very icy. 

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The 18z ICON was also very cold and south.  The surface freezing line roughly bisected the City throughout most of the event and the 850mb freezing line was just to the north.  Dutchess county north is probably mostly snow on that run.  Waiting for the 0z...

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16 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 18z ICON was also very cold and south.  The surface freezing line roughly bisected the City throughout most of the event and the 850mb freezing line was just to the north.  Dutchess county north is probably mostly snow on that run.  Waiting for the 0z...

Iconis by far the worst model on earth! They should have retired that model the same day it came out literally it is horrible!

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00Z NAM MOS guidance never turns winds east of 050 for LGA.  They won’t get above freezing with that.  And generally the winds will verify 010-020 north of guidance on these events 

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3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Iconis by far the worst model on earth! They should have retired that model the same day it came out literally it is horrible!

It's actually a pretty sophisticated model and the German water and meteorological authorities rely on it heavily to manage their water resources in the Bavarian Alps.  It also seems to be performing well (locally) so far this winter.

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5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It's actually a pretty sophisticated model and the German water and meteorological authorities rely on it heavily to manage their water resources in the Bavarian Alps.  It also seems to be performing well (locally) so far this winter.

It’s garbage, complete basura if you ask me. Also think that Germans should just stick to making beemers just my opinion.  

 

Rgem looks good for a few inches

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Just a general model comment: IMO the only global, medium range model that is clearly superior to the German ICON model is the ECMWF.  In terms of 500mb verification, the latest FV3 incarnation of the GFS is probably also superior.  But compared to the others: Canadian, UK, Japanese, Korean, French... the German model is as reliable or better.

I have much more confidence in the ICON for the extended short range period than the NAM lately.

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If I were to guess I'd say 287 will be the dividing line between a cold soaking rain and disruptive icing. I know that's not a big statement but in this storm the freezing line doesn't seem to move much at all the entire time and thats usually where the freezing line sets up.  

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

RGEM is south too.  This is still a pain of an event to forecast because if that initial WAA “finger” goes south this event will likely be mostly PL or FZRA 

But the initial WAA surface south of us occurs with the main shortwave back in Kansas.  And the shortwave is still pretty sharp as it traverses the ohio valley on Tue., which could easily spike mid and low level temps as the main batch of moisture arrives.  Ice is definitely likely considering the antecedent airmass, but this could also easily be a brief ice to rain scenario.  The 500mb chart is far from ideal for extended frozen precip. in my opinion... except maybe far inland. 

But I'm certainly hoping this south trend is real.

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8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

It’s garbage, complete basura if you ask me. Also think that Germans should just stick to making beemers just my opinion.  

 

Rgem looks good for a few inches

There's no reason NCEP should have better weather models than Germany.  Maybe 30 years ago but not anymore.  All countries with national meteorological agencies want to use their own data.  It's interesting to see how respect for different models differs depending on where in the world you live.

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The GFS has snow showers on Mon. night and then ice to rain on Tue.  It has been fairly consistent with this evolution although it has shifted south slightly over the past day or two.  It seems reasonable to me.  I hope it's wrong but I really don't like the 500mb setup.  Even if the cold wins out I feel like we get sleet down here.

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36 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

RGEM is south too.  This is still a pain of an event to forecast because if that initial WAA “finger” goes south this event will likely be mostly PL or FZRA 

RGEM looks wet and warm to me... at least compared to the EC and 0z NAM.  It looks like ALB might mix on that run.  Unless I'm looking at an old run...

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Goose are you referring mostly to the initial WAA push when you describe models as being south?  Yes that initial features has shifted south for a day or two, but the follow up main shortwave is still modeled to push warmth pretty far north on most guidance.  The GFS, RGEM, and UK look pretty warm and wet to me with the main system.  Are you anticipating less of a lull between the initial push and the main batch than shown?

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Setup is there for a big storm.

Euro finally came on board

If it were not for the raging Pacific we would be looking at a Boxing Day redux. On the flip side we have a week for the pattern to hopefully become more favorable. Stronger Greenland blocking and/or the western ridge remaining stout would certainly help. If not for those factors we're going to need great timing to pull it off. At the very least we have a potential big ticket event to track in the coming days.

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Good Sunday morning everyone,  Having reviewed the guidance through 06z/15...my only uncertainty is start time Monday (is it midday or is it delayed til after 7PM Monday).  Needs to be monitored for a return to an earlier start midday Monday than now generally modeled.  Otherwise, quite a mess coming but still think a minor or moderate impact event depending on location. Too early for me to be sure about anything except quite slippery all untreated surfaces north and west of NYC early Tuesday morning. Added two graphics:  One is the experimental prototype NWS Winter Storm Severity Index which is a result of NWS collaboration of all sorts of  parameters including temps/winds/amounts of various precip phases (note the spotty difficult to see moderate impacts interior nw NJ which is the ice factor. and  the other graphic is the 00z/15 ECMWF ensemble (EPS)chance of 1+ inches of snow (courtesy of Weather.US) 731A/15. 

Screen Shot 2019-12-15 at 6.20.48 AM.png

Screen Shot 2019-12-15 at 6.15.43 AM.png

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17 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, the 10:1 ratio snowmaps aren’t going to work for this one either. There’s a lot of sleet in there getting counted as snow and the ratios are lower than 10:1 again. This isn’t a deep arctic airmass in place Monday and the models always underestimate the mid-level WAA/warm nose until the last minute

VERY good point... 

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Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Nam is terrible for our area. Seems like a non event. 

Its terrible for alot of areas unless you live to the west and especially the interior.

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