• Member Statistics

    15,888
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Binworkin
    Newest Member
    Binworkin
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
wdrag

Minor to moderate winter event M-Tue Dec 16-17, 2019

Recommended Posts

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just yesterday morning, Joe Bastardi was hyping tomorrow into Tuesday as a 3-6 inch event with amounts up to 8 inches in NYC. Now, it’s a 1-2 inches of snow and sleet event even up here in Rockland, less than an inch for NYC

3-4 days ago I could see that because I felt there would be a strong massive WAA push but the system just dampens too much as it exits the Oh Valley leading to that initial slug of moisture dying out.  I'm not sure why JB still felt that good yesterday

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, eduggs said:

You are right.  People only seem to remember snow maps.  And snow accumulation and depth aren't even directly modeled geophysical parameters.  The ECMWF models literally dozens of parameters across the entire globe and people only consider one derived parameter from an individual run for a very localized area when evaluating model performance.

The funky IVT snow event was missed by all the models but the Euro up til the day of the event was the best and probably still did best that day out of all the models

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Another week and more massive forecasting busts.  This is due to the euro being really bad so far this year in the 2 to 5 day range. Heck it was even really bad last event at 12z the day the event was ongoing.  

And how good have any of the other models been? The Euro has verified pretty well IMBY the last 2 events.  24-48 hrs prior It had me getting a total of 11 inches in early Dec and that is what I got. It had me getting 2 inches from the frontal wave and I received 1.5.  With this system models have been all over the place quite frankly. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Yeah honestly the Euro has been great so far.  It nailed all 3 events.  If you looked at the snow maps then it seems like it has been bad but its by far led the way with this event the entire way.  

I'm not sure if I'm correct but most of the snow maps that are put out there are mostly at 10:1 ratios. It's hard to get those ratios in most events. So people are looking at the maps and not taking the lower ratios into consideration.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

3-4 days ago I could see that because I felt there would be a strong massive WAA push but the system just dampens too much as it exits the Oh Valley leading to that initial slug of moisture dying out.  I'm not sure why JB still felt that good yesterday

Yea that initial WAA moisture slug just dies. The frontogen forcing completely collapses as it approaches the area tomorrow. The new RGEM shows it really well, it barely has an inch of snow in my neck of the woods now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS LAMP keeps starting tomorrow's precipitation later and later.           Temperature now up to 37 when precipitation starts during PM Hours.          Several hours ago it had something happening while it was still 32 at the surface.          

December 22 looking strung out again, more like a frontal passage than a cohesive storm.      Core of it goes south,  but WAA damage will  happened if this is the arrangement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To me and I am just a novice but it seems that the models have been a roller coaster and I am talking with the previous events as well. I see you guys are saying this one particular model or that model nailed it with previous storms but again to me the models have spit out different solutions from day to day never mind run to run. Again that is just my opinion and what I have seen---in other news before any of us proclaim which model was all over this Monday / Tuesday event shouln't we wait until it actually happens or is over to say that, I mean again if you looked at yesterdays runs compared to todays they are different and my guess is the overnight runs could easily ( they shouldn't in theory but in likelihood  could ) not look anything like todays or yesterdays runs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

3-4 days ago I could see that because I felt there would be a strong massive WAA push but the system just dampens too much as it exits the Oh Valley leading to that initial slug of moisture dying out.  I'm not sure why JB still felt that good yesterday

He's become somewhat of a loose cannon the last several years. I never know whether he's serious anymore, or just taking a stab at it trying to be the one that "called it"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Was it more QPF wise or just more frozen P-type for us folks away from the coast?

It is night and day expansive with QPF from 00-06Z vs the 12Z run.  the 12Z run had zilch from 00-06Z for HPN.  This run looks to have .25-.30.  At 850 it was also a shade cooler and not as far north on the warming from 00-06Z.  I don't see what is doing at 750-825 though so it could be mostly sleet

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Yeah honestly the Euro has been great so far.  It nailed all 3 events.  If you looked at the snow maps then it seems like it has been bad but its by far led the way with this event the entire way.  

Its busted very bad on all three systems that’s why all the Mets have also been very bad

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Surprised more people aren't talking about the ice for areas north of here. Could be pretty significant

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

In Upton's AFD, they mentioned that interior areas could get around .20 of ice. Then some  light additional accumulations later Tuesday 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It is night and day expansive with QPF from 00-06Z vs the 12Z run.  the 12Z run had zilch from 00-06Z for HPN.  This run looks to have .25-.30.  At 850 it was also a shade cooler and not as far north on the warming from 00-06Z.  I don't see what is doing at 750-825 though so it could be mostly sleet

Thanks, we'll see what the trends are with the 00z runs. The 18z 12k NAM run came in with a little more QPF vs the 12z run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Its busted very bad on all three systems that’s why all the Mets have also been very bad

People praise it way too much 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Well many here would lock in the 00Z HRRR from 00-06z tomorrow night from NYC north.  Unfortunately its never right that far out

Nam is coming in colder 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nam has temps never getting above  34 in NYC with snow to rain.

The freezing line is just to the north of NYC. Very cold run

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Also more QPF

IMG_0213.PNG

I dont think alot of inland areas will see ice. I wouldn't be shocked if that turns into snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I dont think alot of inland areas will see ice. I wouldn't be shocked if that turns into snow.

Yea the 850 push was not as strong as this run. Looked only a little north of I84 at its warmest point, if it pans out like this I think this could be mostly snow/sleet inland.  I also think happening overnight keeps everyone colder, could be a Snow/Sleet to ZR event even for the immediate suburbs 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I dont think alot of inland areas will see ice. I wouldn't be shocked if that turns into snow.

There may be some dynamic cooling as frontogenesis increases late tomorrow evening, but with the SE ridge amped up like it is on the EPS below, it will be hard to avoid torching the layer just above the surface. This could be a fairly bad ice storm near White Plains, NNJ, southern CT imo.

m500za_f030_bg_NA.png.e479a40776a6e6e053d6e4d87c05948d.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree on the ice threat.  800mb temps still warm to about 5C right up through the mid-Hudson valley.  The 0z NAM increased the QPF with the first 6 hours of the main WAA push so there's a little snow thump there.  But after that mid-level warmth wins out like previous runs.  NW NJ keeps showing up as a focus area for icing potential.  But I think lots of areas from NEPA to SENY through SCT are at risk for some moderate ice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.