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bluewave

July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Tropics should really start to heat up soon. The waters off the coast especially down near the southeast and the mid atlantic coast are very warm.

 

Euro has a Cat 1 into  the border of LA and TX

maybe,but most forecasts are going for below normal tropical activity this year in the ATL basin.

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28 minutes ago, doncat said:

68° currently...First time to drop below 70° in 6 days.

The warmer minimums were more impressive than the cooler maximums for the first week of July. The minimum temperature departures are in the lead again.

Newark...max....+2.4....min....+4.3.....avg.....+3.4

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Min Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 7
Missing Count
  2010-07-07 81 0
  2019-07-07 77 0
  2018-07-07 77 0
  2016-07-07 77 0
  2013-07-07 77 0
  2012-07-07 77 0
  2015-07-07 74 0
  2014-07-07 73 0
  2011-07-07 73 0
  2017-07-07 71 0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 7
Missing Count
  2010-07-07 103 0
  2012-07-07 102 0
  2018-07-07 98 0
  2011-07-07 97 0
  2014-07-07 96 0
  2013-07-07 96 0
  2016-07-07 95 0
  2019-07-07 92 0
  2015-07-07 91 0
  2017-07-07 90 0

 

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54 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wasn't expecting to see widespread rain this morning. Already more in the bucket than all weekend

Yeah models were showing only a few showers for early this morning. Definitely a surprise that the morning is turning out to be a total washout. Should clear up this afternoon thoiugh.

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57 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah models were showing only a few showers for early this morning. Definitely a surprise that the morning is turning out to be a total washout. Should clear up this afternoon thoiugh.

Yeah. At least its Monday 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

maybe,but most forecasts are going for below normal tropical activity this year in the ATL basin.

That’s flat out wrong. Colorado State increased their forecast to above normal. As are most others. You may be thinking of the preseason forecasts. The MDR is back to normal temp wise after a cool spell for a couple years. The Gulf and off the SE are positively hot. Very good chance of seeing a high end cat 5 in that area. Not to mention the Enso state being weak nino right now. Only strong ninos really destroy Atlantic tropical activity 

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3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wasn't expecting to see widespread rain this morning. Already more in the bucket than all weekend

Yeah didnt expect that. Its hasn't been more than a persistent drizzle and mist here. Dreary but also got us just below 70 for a little while. A brief cool break is ok. Lot of flash flooding down around DC that's where the action is. 3.3" in 1 hr.

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1148232536155463680?s=19

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29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s flat out wrong. Colorado State increased their forecast to above normal. As are most others. You may be thinking of the preseason forecasts. The MDR is back to normal temp wise after a cool spell for a couple years. The Gulf and off the SE are positively hot. Very good chance of seeing a high end cat 5 in that area. Not to mention the Enso state being weak nino right now. Only strong ninos really destroy Atlantic tropical activity 

I missed that one (CO).  Agree on the warm water temps-also near the east coast too.    Regardless of seasonal forecasts, whatever gets going could be a monster given the +++STT's.

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3 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

Kind of looks like last summer in that the highest departures were to our north.

We'll probably be setting a lot of heat records.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Euro hinting at a continuation of the dry July pattern. Below normal rainfall around NYC and points east next 10 days.

 

9533D2F8-D356-4951-B207-914ED634B2CE.thumb.png.b6eb68632cb5da4bd081723ef14f3017.png

Lawns turning brown here. Sprinklers going on

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Euro hinting at a continuation of the dry July pattern. Below normal rainfall around NYC and points east next 10 days.

 

9533D2F8-D356-4951-B207-914ED634B2CE.thumb.png.b6eb68632cb5da4bd081723ef14f3017.png

 

Well that won't be good for the Autumn colors!

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same here. It looks like the heat dome building into the long range will reinforce the existing dry pattern. 

 

FBB8C4D9-167A-403F-AC8C-E2C87A7B16DE.thumb.png.d689a7596fd9837fba9df7e2a5eb3d00.png

42D9D3F8-BDEC-4310-AEEC-D04E96D69D2B.thumb.png.dbb8a9918d41d0a51e537bfd46d3786d.png

Looks like a good thunderstorm pattern 

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With that ridge focused over the plains, we would downslope more than last summer thereby mitigating excessive humidity correct?

 

I'll trade 95/50 for 83/70 anyday. 

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After the constant cloud cover for the past year, I am not going to complain about a short dry period. 

Hate the heat, but need the sun. 

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On ‎7‎/‎3‎/‎2019 at 6:09 PM, LibertyBell said:

lol JFK may reach 100 before Central Park does.

No one cares about Central Park anymore anyway, it doesn't reflect NYC weather in any way.  I dont know why the media ever uses them anymore, they should just use LGA which is far more reflective of urban NYC.

I wish the NWS would send a bulletin to the media to tell them to stop using Central Park numbers.  All we get now is Lee Goldberg telling us that the wind and temp reports from Central Park are not representative of the area- but he keeps on quoting them and the highs and lows there.

Either that or move the Central Park equipment out into the Sheep Meadow (or set up duplicate equipment there and just use their numbers and only keep the original equipment for historical purposes) or some other open area lol.  No one really cares about weather continuity from the 1800s anymore anyway, we all know the climate was far different back then.

 

 

Unfortunately, even top level meteorologists on the Accuweather Professional website, when doing comparisons of 90+ days in the east, BOS, NYC, PHL, DCA among others, use Central Park as the benchmark for New York City. They then attempt to do analyses based on this flawed data. For example, trying to explain why as of June 28 NY City still had not reached 90 (it had, just not in Central Park) or why New York had fewer 90+ days in 2018 than Boston did (in reality LGA had substantially more).

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6 hours ago, mjr said:

Unfortunately, even top level meteorologists on the Accuweather Professional website, when doing comparisons of 90+ days in the east, BOS, NYC, PHL, DCA among others, use Central Park as the benchmark for New York City. They then attempt to do analyses based on this flawed data. For example, trying to explain why as of June 28 NY City still had not reached 90 (it had, just not in Central Park) or why New York had fewer 90+ days in 2018 than Boston did (in reality LGA had substantially more).

There is logic in the decision to retain the Central Park benchmark. The aim is to report the weather rather than to measure urban heat island effects.

I have no doubt that the concrete jungles we live in are hotter than the relatively green acres of Central Park, but that does not make the Central park data 'flawed'.

 

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The next 8 days continue to average 79degs., or about 2.5degs., AN.

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3 hours ago, etudiant said:

There is logic in the decision to retain the Central Park benchmark. The aim is to report the weather rather than to measure urban heat island effects.

I have no doubt that the concrete jungles we live in are hotter than the relatively green acres of Central Park, but that does not make the Central park data 'flawed'.

 

The Central Park data is flawed due to the sensor being blocked by trees and foliage from sunlight and open airflow. Not because it’s located in a park. The open areas of the park  are probably 1-3 degrees warmer for highs than the sensor area that is blocked. The old sensor was in an open area before 1996 with no obstructions. This is why NYC has an artificial 90 degree day cooling trend with more 90 degree days in 1991 and 1993 than 2010.

Place sensors at a horizontal distance of 2 times the height of the nearest object (tree,
structure, etc). [Example: 40 feet away from a 20 foot tall tree].

B7509AEE-1193-47DD-BB7C-C32CDA95FB26.thumb.jpeg.7adacd001697a5cb2101a8e65ca190ac.jpeg

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My observation for this morning is that it's absolutely beautiful outside. I've been working around the yard and garden for the last hour or so and it feels great. If the weather was just like this, no warmer and no cooler, for 6 months a year it would be wonderful. We had a super thick dew this morning and the fog watered the foliage sufficiently for the day pretty much like in the coastal range areas of the Pacific coast where Redwoods grow a few hundred feet tall with ~20" of rain a year. While I'd love to live in the coast range chances are it will never happen so if anyone can figure out a way to keep the weather like this here I'm in for support :) 

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The warmer temperatures showing up in all the extended guidance will only reinforce the 80-90% above normal July temperature streak for the 2010’s. The departure increase from June into July has been a common feature.

July......EWR....NYC...LGA

2018....+0.8....+1.1.....+2.4

2017....-0.1.....+0.3.....+0.7

2016...+2.5.....+2.2.....+3.7

2015...+1.6.....+2.3.....+1.8

2014....-0.4.....-0.4.......-0.4

2013....+3.5...+3.3......+3.8

2012....+3.4...+2.3......+3.0

2011....+5.3...+3.7......+3.0

2010...+4.9....+4.8......+5.4

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

My observation for this morning is that it's absolutely beautiful outside. I've been working around the yard and garden for the last hour or so and it feels great. If the weather was just like this, no warmer and no cooler, for 6 months a year it would be wonderful. We had a super thick dew this morning and the fog watered the foliage sufficiently for the day pretty much like in the coastal range areas of the Pacific coast where Redwoods grow a few hundred feet tall with ~20" of rain a year. While I'd love to live in the coast range chances are it will never happen so if anyone can figure out a way to keep the weather like this here I'm in for support :) 

Dew Is rare in my little corner of the concrete/asphalt inner city. My usual and often only relief for the backyard in summer is a hose in hand or a cooperative congested cumulus. As always ......

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Caveat to next week's strong heat would be the remnants of any Tropical system moving north out of the GOM and  subsequent slow treck east.  Liekly means some persistent rains into the MS valley for several days ahead of ejecting east.  But ahead of that today should fetch more 90s for the metro area.

 

11Am Roundup:

JFK: 85
EWR: 85
ISP: 84
TEB: 84
New Brunswck: 83
LGA: 83
BLM: 82
ACY: 82
PHL: 81
NYC: 81
TTN: 79

 

 

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