Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
bluewave

July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

Looks like more heat similar to what we just had coming up mid/late this week with a chance of rain/storms. 

 

Mt.Holly:

 

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
   
  Synoptic Overview: 
   
  The mid-lvl low will have cleared the area by the start of the 
  period, and generally zonal mid-lvl flow will then prevail for  
  most of the extended as the area finds itself on the northern  
  periphery of an increasing flat ridge centered over the SE US.  
  Active weather will largely be driven diurnally-driven 
  convection aided by weak convectively- enhanced waves  
  interacting with nearby weak thermal boundaries.  
   
  Specifics regarding precipitation chances are difficult in this  
  regime as precipitation will largely be in the form of diurnal  
  convection with dynamic forcing being weak due to a lack of  
  appreciable height/temperature gradients (and resulting flow). 
   
  Dailies: 
   
  Monday... Monday will likely be the nicest day of the week as  
  high pressure briefly builds in SW of the area. High  
  temperatures will generally be in the 80s (with dewpoints only  
  reaching around 60) with limited clouds, and fairly light winds. 
   
  Tuesday... A weak shortwave will approach the area on Tuesday  
  bringing a chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Last 
  night`s 00Z guidance were in fairly good agreement that this 
  system would be fairly weak and arrive Tuesday morning. The  
  Euro and Canadian still retain this solution, however the NAM  
  and GFS have trended slower with the system, holding off until  
  Tuesday afternoon/evening. This would potentially lead to 
  stronger precipitation due to better diurnal-convective timing. 
  Although I added slight Chc.PoPs Tuesday PM to account for  
  these new solutions, generally left higher PoPs (still only  
  Chc.) for Tuesday AM. High temperatures will run about 5 degrees 
  warmer than Monday with winds remaining light. 
   
  Wednesday... Moisture will be on the increase into Wednesday  
  however guidance is not in agreement on if it will yet be  
  sufficient to initiate diurnal convection Wednesday PM  
  (therefore went with only Slight Chc. PoPs) Temperatures will  
  remain warm with highs generally in the 90s outside of the  
  coast and higher elevation areas. 
   
  Thursday-Saturday... Sufficient Moisture (PWATs near or above 2 
  inches, dewpoints at or above 70) should be present by the end 
  of the week to support (at least) scattered afternoon 
  thunderstorms each day. It will also become increasing muggy  
  and heat indices approaching 100 will be possible for portions  
  of the urban corridor Friday and Saturday. On the plus side  
  (after the last couple of days) the organized severe threat  
  looks limited due to very weak flow (at all levels). Given the 
  abundant moisture and weak flow there may be somewhat of a hydro 
  threat, however, it is currently too far out to say for sure. 
   
  && 

Upton:

 

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Region will be on the northern edge of southern ridging, with a
relatively active flow mid to late week. Models signaling
flattening of the ridge this weekend as Hudson`s Bay low begins
to slide into Quebec and exert more influence on Great lakes and
Northeast.

Generally increasingly warm and humid conditions Wed through
Fri, with a low to moderate potential for heat indices to reach
95 degrees for NYC/NJ metro and surroundings Thursday thru
Saturday.

Potential for afternoon convection Thu and Fri. At this
point, the bulk of this convective activity and even possible
MCS`s appear more likely to the south of the area, based on
ridge orientation, but will have to monitor. Better chance for
organized convection may come next weekend with approach of cold
front, but low predictability this far out.

&&
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The first 8 days of July are averaging 79.5degs., or 4degs. AN.

Top Ten territory for July is 79.6 to 81.4, or +3.1 to +4.9.    Average is 76.5.

67.3* here at 6am.  73.5* by 10am.   77.5* by Noon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last year on this day I hit 99°, with dews in the mid 70’s my heat index peaked at 115°.

Currently 84/63, stark difference.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weather for the 4th looking pretty good for outdoor plans, other than the fact that it will be uncomfortable with the humidity. Models are showing just isolated t-storms, and mainly well west of NYC. Should be dry for cookouts and fireworks in most areas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Weather for the 4th looking pretty good for outdoor plans, other than the fact that it will be uncomfortable with the humidity. Models are showing just isolated t-storms, and mainly well west of NYC. Should be dry for cookouts and fireworks in most areas.

Pway puts on a pretty nice display for the 4th. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We should get a break from the typical first week of July major heat. The only years this decade that didn’t go 95+ at Newark were 2017 and 2015.

Newark, NJ
   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Tstrms   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy
   68/89    72/91    72/89    73/89    74/90    73/87    69/85
    00/30    40/30    30/30    30/50    50/40    40/40    40/30
Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 7
Missing Count
2018-07-07 98 0
2017-07-07 90 0
2016-07-07 95 0
2015-07-07 91 0
2014-07-07 96 0
2013-07-07 96 0
2012-07-07 102 0
2011-07-07 97 0
2010-07-07 103 0

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Next 8 days averaging 79degs., or 3.5degs. AN.

70.3* here at 6am.     86.5* by 2pm and mostly overcast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We just tied the record for longest -NAO streak on record at 68 days so far. All the high pressure to our north will allow a SE onshore flow July 4th. Instead of the major 95+ heat than can be typical on a SW to W flow around the 4th at places like EWR and LGA.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1145949327103336450

Today marks the 68th day of negative North Atlantic Oscillation period. Among with 2011, this is the longest -NAO stretch on record (thread below).

5EB47233-2355-4FA1-8CA2-014A50A10BDA.thumb.png.4ec6736995909c119536be8839ff7c5c.png

1F50582B-39A6-4028-90C0-C9C3BB464EAB.thumb.gif.9c9a65b24bd8137e274997da40a66890.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Power crews and tree crews making slow progress still. On my way out of my hood this morning:

 

5E19FAA1-73D7-42BD-9EFE-6E8DB0F0EBC0.png

Just imagine if a hurricane hit the island. Amazing how long it takes utility crews to get a localized area back up and running after a tstorm.  Question whether anything was learned from Sandy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Just imagine if a hurricane hit the island. Amazing how long it takes utility crews to get a localized area back up and running after a tstorm.  Question whether anything was learned from Sandy.

Yea i mean you have a small 25 square mile area that was hit, at best, probably closer to 20 sq miles, the worst areas probably in a 15 sq mile radius, in the largest metro area in the country, and it takes this long? Something isnt right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the negative nao continues...I think it's the longest negative streak in a long time...the 1960's had a few long streaks but it was during the winter months...the greatest neg run looks like it started on Nov. 29th 1968 to March 27th 1969...116 of 119 days with a neg nao...only Dec 13th 1968 and Feb 9th-10th 1969 were positive days...Feb 9th-10th, 1969 was the date of the Lindsay storm that gave JFK over 20" of cement...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the negative nao continues...I think it's the longest negative streak in a long time...the 1960's had a few long streaks but it was during the winter months...the greatest neg run looks like it started on Nov. 29th 1968 to March 27th 1969...116 of 119 days with a neg nao...only Dec 13th 1968 and Feb 9th-10th 1969 were positive days...Feb 9th-10th, 1969 was the date of the Lindsay storm that gave JFK over 20" of cement...

This is the new record. I posted the link above. Another big -NAO drop coming up.

 

027FF105-D80E-40A9-9AB4-E71BBA7493E1.thumb.gif.b1bdb3b6327d84411aa409feb4f6218e.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

can't wait for the NAO to go strongly positive 12/1.....

Wouldn't that be great---Lets see if we can have a warm, snowfree winter.  That would be tremendous

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

A record-setting -NAO in May and June is quite the nasty gut punch after the garbage winter we had.

Just as a cake needs more than flour to be a cake, we'd need more than just a -NAO to get a cold and snowy winter.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Wouldn't that be great---Lets see if we can have a warm, snowfree winter.  That would be tremendous

some heads will pop off here if there's 2 garbage winters in a row...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

a neg nao is no guarantee the winter will be snowy...the 1962-63 winter is a good example of that...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

some heads will pop off here if there's 2 garbage winters in a row...

Just as long as it doesn't snow before December 1, we'll be fine. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, uncle W said:

a neg nao is no guarantee the winter will be snowy...the 1962-63 winter is a good example of that...

The consolation is we haven’t had very cold and dry winters in recent times. All our colder winters since 2000-2001 have been snowy. We were so dry in the 60’s, that a really cold winter 62-63 could turn out with below average snowfall. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×