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Rtd208

June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It seems like all the record Pacific SST warmth west of the dateline produced more of La Niña response from the SOI, MJO, and Pacific Jet.

Are you focusing at all on the area of warmth East of Aussie ?

Some stated that contributed, and or supported,  the robust High Pressure system in the central Pac which in turn how some effected on the WAR over in the Atlantic.

I know both you and Tip from the New England forum mentioned the vastness of the warmth in the Pac, but a lack of a single focused warm area as an issue.

Comparing it to a warm bathtub, just warmth everywhere and sloshing around. 

Lastly, the ability to couple the ocean and the atmosphere as Don S and Isotherm mentioned a few times as well. 

 

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54 minutes ago, frd said:

Are you focusing at all on the area of warmth East of Aussie ?

Some stated that contributed, and or supported,  the robust High Pressure system in the central Pac which in turn how some effected on the WAR over in the Atlantic.

I know both you and Tip from the New England forum mentioned the vastness of the warmth in the Pac, but a lack of a single focused warm area as an issue.

Comparing it to a warm bathtub, just warmth everywhere and sloshing around. 

Lastly, the ability to couple the ocean and the atmosphere as Don S and Isotherm mentioned a few times as well. 

 

Yeah, the entire Pacific Basin west of the dateline.

D1C4DB22-4040-4F82-B9B9-0C64F27984F9.png.9230d989b3d059bcf1d929c146acae9c.png

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At 12z the FV3 replaced the GFS. As for as NYC is concerned, the guidance is now colder throughout the MEX MOS vs. the 0z run (prior version). A similar cooling was visible on the MEX MOS forecast for San Francisco.

Forecast precipitation for Thursday-Friday has diverged both from the prior GFS runs and the NAM runs (through 12z), with the FV3 showing only 0.10" rain.

The 12z NAM shows approximately 0.70". The 12z GGEM shows approximately 0.90".

With the last rainstorm, the consensus was 0.50"-1.50" and 1.07" fell. The FV3 showed much higher amounts. As with the last storm, I suspect NYC will pick up 0.50"-1.50" rain. If so, the FV3 will record another big "miss" within a less than one-week period.

 

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Another system could bring another 0.50" to 1.50" precipitation to parts of the region tomorrow into Friday. The heaviest rain appears likely to fall in an area running from near Washington, DC northeastward across southeastern Pennsylvania into adjacent New Jersey.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +9.14 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.179. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region.

On June 11, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.679 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the June 10-adjusted figure of 0.816.

Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 68.7° (0.6° below normal).

The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. However, exceptional warmth currently appears unlikely. Nevertheless, there remains a distinct possibility that the 90° isotherm will reach New York City at some point before June ends.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City remains near 60%.

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Looks like most of NJ and the NYC metro area is in the doughnut hole with a swath of moderate to heavy rain to our east and west.

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30 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like most of NJ and the NYC metro area is in the doughnut hole with a swath of moderate to heavy rain to our east and west.

Yeah we ain't getting much from this.

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Next 8 days are averaging 72degs., or just Normal.

Month to date is  +0.5[69.4].     Should be +0.3[70.4], by the 21st.

We are about to start the 80/80 period, meaning 80 straight days of highs at least 80*+, peaking near 85* on July 23.    July 21 has been the most likely day for 100* in NYC.

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3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like most of NJ and the NYC metro area is in the doughnut hole with a swath of moderate to heavy rain to our east and west.

the ol 7-10 split--models showed this nicely last couple of days...

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Only the 2nd time this decade that LGA hasn’t reached 90 degrees by June 13th. Less warm is the new cool as our high temperature potential remains muted. 

Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 13
Missing Count
1 2014-06-13 87 0
2 2019-06-13 89 1
3 2012-06-13 90 0
4 2016-06-13 92 0
- 2015-06-13 92 0
6 2018-06-13 93 0
- 2013-06-13 93 0
8 2010-06-13 94 0
9 2011-06-13 97 0
10 2017-06-13 101 0
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4 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

52 and rain.  Not bad for April 13th...oh wait.

The near record 588 DM ridge was over Greenland instead of our area. 

 

E1F177E2-9E61-4CFB-9E8B-5B2382119C3B.png.087a8df054be434fe2a863e7d671bb06.png

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The heaviest rain looks to be out of the area in the next hour 

 

inxr1Kphla_h.gif

 

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As of 10 am, NYC (Central Park) had received 0.25" rain. Already, that's well above the yesterday's 12z FV3, which was a low outlier.

Yesterday, following the 12z runs, I had noted that with the implementation of the FV3, forecast precipitation for today into tomorrow had diverged both from the prior GFS runs and the NAM runs (through 12z), with the FV3 showing only 0.10" rain.

It appears that this event could be the FV3's second large miss on qpf within 24 hours of an event for NYC for the second time this week.

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7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah we ain't getting much from this.

 

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

the ol 7-10 split--models showed this nicely last couple of days...

Who is winning the game tonight? Cant wait to make bank on the opposite bet.

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26 minutes ago, uncle W said:

0,60" so far...it's almost over...

Looks like NYC will continue the record setting monthly 3.00” streak which began in February 2018. This should be the 17th consecutive month with no end in sight.  NYC could even do it next week with all the convection in the forecast.

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55
2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 1.97
 

 

B214B284-CDBE-4179-9BBB-50D258910ACB.thumb.png.dcfab68f98cb8e8cb8393275f9e5f651.png

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2 hours ago, BxEngine said:

 

Who is winning the game tonight? Cant wait to make bank on the opposite bet.

got about .30 here   That's not much.  Models showed the dryslot pretty well the last 2 days....

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