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Rtd208

June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Bright sunshine and very windy. Howling downtown. Clouds are racing across the sky, interesting to see but was that forecasted?

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38 minutes ago, dWave said:

Bright sunshine and very windy. Howling downtown. Clouds are racing across the sky, interesting to see but was that forecasted?

I believe there was a 30% chance of racing clouds 

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Euro has multiple rounds of convection beginning Sunday and lasting well into next week. Several waves of low pressure ride the stalled out warm front across the area. So no let up in sight for this wet pattern.

 

912200E3-E4ED-4709-9023-307F9B290AF9.thumb.png.881b87e298cc876bf64a4366be0d994f.png

12D2F08C-2613-4F98-A91B-F5EA9A8E312F.thumb.png.0231c1152b5a7bce5e78983c9b962f14.png

E3B117F4-C942-461C-A48D-62BAAB315880.thumb.png.6543591f28e78f63ef34cfb085a98cfa.png

FFFA0882-99F4-4B58-9A0A-AA12AED75B95.thumb.png.225a6412b42cae7993f9a2180fb99576.png

7ADFBCEE-9BD4-4FE4-8774-9FB387545CB2.thumb.png.238b8d5912e9414ee8a45191f4562ce0.png

 

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52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro has multiple rounds of convection beginning Sunday and lasting well into next week. Several waves of low pressure ride the stalled out warm front across the area. So no let up in sight for this wet pattern.

 

912200E3-E4ED-4709-9023-307F9B290AF9.thumb.png.881b87e298cc876bf64a4366be0d994f.png

12D2F08C-2613-4F98-A91B-F5EA9A8E312F.thumb.png.0231c1152b5a7bce5e78983c9b962f14.png

E3B117F4-C942-461C-A48D-62BAAB315880.thumb.png.6543591f28e78f63ef34cfb085a98cfa.png

FFFA0882-99F4-4B58-9A0A-AA12AED75B95.thumb.png.225a6412b42cae7993f9a2180fb99576.png

7ADFBCEE-9BD4-4FE4-8774-9FB387545CB2.thumb.png.238b8d5912e9414ee8a45191f4562ce0.png

 

Fantastic! Waves and no watering at work. 

Waiting to see if any of that convention over western Pa makes it

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There's decent synoptic support for convection now in the DC area to ride the northward-retreating warm front into the metro later this evening. The 500 vort and associated jet max are impressive for this time of year:

floop-nam4km-2019061318.500wh.us_ma.gif.c101020d6fb710b9b272aca19e859132.gif

These features have strong lift associated with them, so they'll take advantage of seemingly minor instability. We still have several hours of sun and a developing seabreeze behind this morning's low to help bring the effective warm sector back to most of the Jersey Shore and perhaps the south shore of LI. It's probably too little too late to get the best activity into the city, but I think a good chunk of central/southern NJ is in for a good thunderstorm this evening. Can't rule out some good cloud-to-cloud lightning south of here around 9 or 10 this evening.

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are entering the time of year when one these stalled front set ups could deliver a surprise localized  5”+ event. But  the exact location that jackpots in the region is tough to know ahead of time. Mostly a nowcasters special where the best training sets up.

Mt.Holly was hinting at that in their discussion basically saying that flooding concerns for next week could go beyond the typical nuisance type flooding depending how things play out.

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wet Junes are not that unusual these days...the top three wettest Junes in NYC came after 2003...

wettest Junes...

10.27 2003

10.10 2013
10.06 2009
9.78 1903
9.30 1972
8.79 1989
8.55 2006
7.76 1887
7.58 1975
7.13 1938
7.05 1871
7.04 1928
6.88 1922

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Earlier today, the temperature fell to 55° in New York City. That was the coolest reading since May 25 when the temperature also fell to 55°. It was also the coolest temperature June 10 or later since June 14, 2013 when the temperature fell to 53°. Milder conditions are likely across the Middle Atlantic region for the remainder of the week and through the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +5.62 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.077. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993.

On June 12, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.715 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the June 11-adjusted figure of 0.679.

Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 68.7° (0.6° below normal).

The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. However, exceptional warmth currently appears unlikely. Nevertheless, there remains a distinct possibility that the 90° isotherm will reach New York City at some point before June ends. In addition, this period could feature above to possibly much above normal precipitation in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 55%.

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Year-to-date precipitation figures and anomalies through 8:38 pm included:

Allentown: 27.69" (+9.01")
Baltimore: 19.58" (+0.98")
Boston: 21.33" (+1.33")
Bridgeport: 22.75" (+3.05")
Harrisburg: 24.01" (+6.92")
Islip: 23.13" (+1.55")
New York City: 24.37" (+2.50")
Newark: 24.96" (+4.22")
Philadelphia: 22.17" (+3.88")
Providence: 26.08" (+4.18")
Scranton: 20.73" (+5.12")
Washington, DC: 19.79" (+2.20")

New York City picked up 0.44" rain. Yesterday's 12z run of the FV3 forecast only 0.10". The implied probability of New York City's reaching 50" or more annual precipitation is 64%.

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Just now, Rtd208 said:

Pretty good slug for rain/storms moving into the NYC metro.

Don't know if they're going to be able to finish the Mets game...

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8 hours ago, nzucker said:

63 and breezy, feels more like early May. Cool start to June, but that's been typical in recent years. Summer heat lingers well into fall but starts out mild.

I agree with that overall, but this year the heat has been exceptionally muted.  Still no air conditioning yet, which is incredibly rare at this point (last year was early May for comparison). 

The thing that's been different about this year is that we get warmer periods interspersed with very cool days.  Last month there were a lot of days with low high temps, and the average is deceiving because of warm mins.

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28 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I agree with that overall, but this year the heat has been exceptionally muted.  Still no air conditioning yet, which is incredibly rare at this point (last year was early May for comparison). 

The thing that's been different about this year is that we get warmer periods interspersed with very cool days.  Last month there were a lot of days with low high temps, and the average is deceiving because of warm mins.

My windows have been open numerous times May-June, which is very rare.

The dews and even the mins on several days have been very comfortable too tho that's likely to change as we get into the thick of summer. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

My windows have been open numerous times May-June, which is very rare.

The dews and even the mins on several days have been very comfortable too tho that's likely to change as we get into the thick of summer. 

Yeah, very few days that were hot and humid.  For the most part it's been average or below with lots of cloudy days and rain (at least here).

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Next 8 days averaging 73degs., or 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  -0.3[68.7].        Should be +0.2[70.3], by the 22nd.

Still did not reach 61* by 7am, here.

Made it to 70* by 2pm., but too many cumulus clouds and too breezy for beach.

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