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Rtd208

June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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2nd highest winds of month here on the South Shore with gusts around 40 mph. The strongest winds were a few weeks back with the 50 mph thunderstorm gusts.

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19 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Must be very windy at Citifield. Alonso hit his 23rd home run which went to 450+ feet!

judge ball last year went even further...

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Today was fantastic, spent 10 hours on the roof with some friends. I'm glad the GFS has backed off the 90s for next week, even if it comes at the price of some more rainy days.

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Next 8 days averaging 73degs., or 0.5deg. AN.

Month to date is  -0.8[68.6].        Should be  -0.3[70.1], by the 24th.

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These muted high temperatures through the solstice are unusual by 2010’s standards. Lowest maximum temperature for this decade at EWR and NYC. 2nd coolest at LGA.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 21
Missing Count
1 2019-06-21 90 6
2 2014-06-21 92 0
3 2015-06-21 93 0
4 2013-06-21 94 0
5 2010-06-21 95 0
6 2018-06-21 96 0
- 2016-06-21 96 0
8 2017-06-21 99 0
- 2012-06-21 99 0
10 2011-06-21 102 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 21
Missing Count
1 2019-06-21 86 6
2 2015-06-21 89 0
- 2014-06-21 89 0
4 2013-06-21 90 0
5 2018-06-21 92 0
- 2016-06-21 92 0
- 2010-06-21 92 0
8 2017-06-21 94 0
- 2012-06-21 94 0
10 2011-06-21 95 0

 

Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 21
Missing Count
1 2014-06-21 88 0
2 2019-06-21 89 6
3 2016-06-21 92 0
- 2015-06-21 92 0
5 2018-06-21 93 0
- 2013-06-21 93 0
7 2010-06-21 94 0
8 2011-06-21 97 0
9 2012-06-21 98 0
10 2017-06-21 101 0

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The SPC has places most of this forum in a marginal risk for severe weather today. To our south / southwest, there is a slight risk of severe weather. SPC has also included a 2% chance of tornadoes to our south. The sun is peaking out in brooklyn but that cloud cover to the west is moving in fast. I may head down to south jersey in a few hours depending on how much instability they can achieve. 

doGSLP7.jpg

FIoZwsi.gif

 

 

 

Mt Holly discussion is worth the read as well but its long so I won't copy and paste it. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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15 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

The SPC has places most of this forum in a marginal risk for severe weather today. To our south / southwest, there is a slight risk of severe weather. SPC has also included a 2% chance of tornadoes to our south. The sun is peaking out in brooklyn but that cloud cover to the west is moving in fast. I may head down to south jersey in a few hours depending on how much instability they can achieve. 

doGSLP7.jpg

FIoZwsi.gif

 

 


 

Mt Holly discussion is worth the read as well but its long so I won't copy and paste it. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

It would not surprise me to see the slight risk area expanded and shifted north. Whether the NYC metro area makes it into the slight risk is another story but at the very least the marginal should hold serve.

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3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It would not surprise me to see the slight risk area expanded and shifted north. Whether the NYC metro area makes it into the slight risk is another story but at the very least the marginal should hold serve.

Yeah, same. The models did a piss poor job yesterday with this setup to our west. I think we have a nice day of storms ahead. And we do it all again tomorrow. 

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1 minute ago, NycStormChaser said:

Yeah, same. The models did a piss poor job yesterday with this setup to our west. I think we have a nice day of storms ahead. And we do it all again tomorrow. 

The entire week should feature several bouts of heavy rain/severe weather, some days more then others.

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Yesterday saw a high temperature of 81° in New York City. Overall, the June 1-15 temperature averaged 68.6°, which was 0.7° below normal. The probability that June will finish somewhat warmer than normal has diminished, but remains plausible. A wetter than normal June remains well on course.

Some photos from Pike County, Pennsylvania yesterday where rainfall totals have been much above normal recently. The photos were taken in the Dingmans Falls area (Dingmans Falls is the larger waterfall and Silver Thread Falls is the smaller one). Temperatures were in the upper 70s there and rain showers passed near the area during the evening.

Dingmans-Falls06152019-2.jpg

Dingmans-Falls06152019-4.jpg

Dingmans-Falls06152019-5.jpg

Silver-Thread-Falls06152019-1.jpg

Silver-Thread-Falls06152019-2.jpg

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It has been soggy here all day. In and out rain, sometimes light sometimes moderate. The fog has been in and out too as the temp fluctuates between rain periods. Right now it's drizzly and very humid. Happy mud day ;) 

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Finally got some sun a few hours ago to get temp to 83°. Down to 73° now after 0.06" of rain....Euro still very wet next week but timing and placement remains difficult.

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Excessive rainfall totals were recorded over the past 24 hours in the Ohio Valley. Locations near Cincinnati picked up more than 5" rain. Over the next several days, parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be in line for above to possibly much above normal rainfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -3.66 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.376. The AO could go positive in coming days. However, that period could be short-lived as renewed blocking develops.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On June 15, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.423 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.115.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 46%.

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Flash Flood Watch is effect here from noon today thru late tonight but I think the best heavy rain/storms may be from Philly south but we will see how the day plays out.

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This is the kind of pattern where someone could get 5"+ and someone could see nothing. 

Best chance for widespread heavy rain will be later this week. 

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Next 8 days are averaging 74degs., or 1.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.7[68.8].       Should be just Normal  0.0[70.6], by the 25th.

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No surprise that the front is stalled out near 40N with a SST gradient like this. The cold pool east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes set a new record coldest SST’s for the month of May.

 

A0CB3989-D858-49CA-8E52-240189CDAC37.gif.937328ab826ce7a371d54725902093dc.gif

9EEC807D-DB9A-4661-B46F-6DA30A316354.png.2c735f32ee8a4350d4882c14058cb3e1.png

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