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Rtd208

June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Record 17 consecutive months with at least 3.00” of precipitation in NYC. Can NYC extend the streak into 2020? Stay tuned....

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55
2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 3.15 M M M M M M
 
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At 8 pm, an area of rain was moving away from the greater New York City area. Additional areas of showers and thunderstorms stretched from northeast of Macon to Annapolis. Overnight, things should quiet down, but additional showers and thundershowers are likely across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas tomorrow.

Through 8 pm, year-to-date precipitation at Allentown stood at 29.53", which surpassed the 28.76" that fell in 1941 (driest year on record). At Newark, year-to-date precipitation was 26.34", which surpassed the 26.09" that fell in 1965 (driest year on record).

At New York City, year-to-date precipitation was 25.35". Select probabilities for annual precipitation amounts included: 45" or more: 86%; 50" or more: 65%; 55" or more: 39%.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -7.41 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.492. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the previous round in terms of magnitude.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°.

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On June 17, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.505 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.850.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City has increased to 53%.

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0.64” here. 2.13” for the month so far.

Suffolk turning drier than inland areas as we now rely on convective precipitation for the next several months.

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5 hours ago, Cfa said:

0.64” here. 2.13” for the month so far.

Suffolk turning drier than inland areas as we now rely on convective precipitation for the next several months.

Yeah that’s the typical summer pattern. We need warm fronts or synoptic stratiform rains to get it done for now. We do better with convection in August when water temps are above 70. Something about water temps in 60s really zaps convection 

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Next 8 days averaging 76degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.7[69.1].         Should be +0.4[71.2], by the 27th. 

June 25---July 03 should have our first 90* day(s).      There is ridgeing, but is it oriented properly is the issue.

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Only the 11th time that Newark didn’t reach 90 in June by the solstice. Models attempt to warm the pattern next week. So it will be interesting to see if Newark can score a post solstice June 90 degree day. Very rare for Newark to go the whole month of June without at least 1 day reaching 90. It has only happened 3 years.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 21
Missing Count
1 2009-06-21 83 0
2 2003-06-21 85 0
3 1985-06-21 86 0
- 1948-06-21 86 0
4 2019-06-21 87 3
- 1990-06-21 87 0
- 1980-06-21 87 0
5 1998-06-21 88 0
- 1977-06-21 88 0
- 1972-06-21 88 0
- 1958-06-21 88 0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1972 88 0
2 2009 89 0
- 1985 89 0

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20 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Anyone have cloud statistics ready available? I have yet to find anyone including the NWS that keeps records for cloud cover etc. Looking at the data available though this has been an excessively cloudy spring. 

Very close to the spring record for overcast conditions at noon. Most of our stations had 2 out of 3 spring months with around 50% overcast conditions at noon. Climo is generally in the mid 30’s.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=LGA&hour=12&year=2019&month=3&dpi=100&_fmt=png

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very close to the spring record for overcast conditions at noon. Most of our stations had 2 out of 3 spring months with around 50% overcast conditions at noon.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=LGA&hour=12&year=2019&month=3&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Interesting it seems that when I use location in Maryland,  you guys up there have been cloudier. However June on pace to go above climo cloudy this way looking at my chart. 

network:MD_ASOS::zstation:ADW::hour:12::year:2019::month:3::dpi:100.png

 

 

 

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