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Rtd208

June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Pretty significant flooding event unfolding across the Reading area. Radar estimates 4 inch of rain fell in one hour with more on the way tonight. Areas south of Philly have received a similar amount. 8fde77be29160f6c1a3cf718577e7ada.jpg

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3 hours ago, NycStormChaser said:

Pretty significant flooding event unfolding across the Reading area. Radar estimates 4 inch of rain fell in one hour with more on the way tonight. Areas south of Philly have received a similar amount.

Northwest of Philly under the gun now. Serious rainfall rates.

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Next 8 days averaging 76degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.9[69.1].       Should be +0.3[71.1], by the 28th.

Next week looks like a modified version of this week with higher temps. and lower precip. chances---week 2 really looks drier.

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This non stop rain is getting insane. It’s not the quantity (at least on the uws) but the duration. It has rained a good portion of the last few days. I would much rather be south of the boundary with occasional convection then this non stop stratiform rain. I will say, the lawns here on campus are looking the best they ever have!

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Early indications are that at least the beginning of July will continue with the cool trough east of New England. Tough to go against that record cold pool.

 

F03BED1A-DD45-4BCB-BC38-8A97B153DEB9.thumb.png.22cd7cf9871777414d08d93ef7038453.png

3999747A-7ABA-4DE9-A608-DA8B96F30C2C.gif.005e10ae3697257b28aa9c2714a7bfa8.gif

 

 

Back door after back door. Bring it on...

lets see if we can get some sun for destabilization. If we stay socked in the chances for any decent thunderstorms will be crushed 

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16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Back door after back door. Bring it on...

lets see if we can get some sun for destabilization. If we stay socked in the chances for any decent thunderstorms will be crushed 

The one consolation prize looks to be a dry NW flow weekend with lower dewpoints.

 

EEF3184F-D5D0-4144-958B-4A1DA045DA5D.thumb.gif.902a4e869de4c00473c5120bf8340eb9.gif

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Back door after back door. Bring it on...

lets see if we can get some sun for destabilization. If we stay socked in the chances for any decent thunderstorms will be crushed 

For me Id rather stay socked in because I have a doubleheader for softball later at 630/730.  We have had 4 rainouts we don't need more! :)

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15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hasn't even cleared central nj yet...long way to go

That  seems to be the theme it's season...often times we'll  see the warm front jump north just ahead of the cold front, but that doesn't give much time for destabilization.

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Would seem so

Just before nine it started to brighten in the 11231 area.

In the winter there was always a temptation, on my part, to wish cast for snow. I never thought I could do it during meteorological summer for sunshine. As always ......

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22 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

So that would mean more hours of overcast skies?

Personally I think by the early afternoon hours Central NJ on south is clear. You can see the clearing already starting to happen to our west / south west. Lower to mid 70s dew points are moving north through New Jersey into NYC and once areas get daytime heating CAPE values should be in the 2000-3000 J/KG. I do think this will be a mostly Hudson River on west day though with some severe storms thunderstormspopping up throughout the late afternoon and evening. 

(Might have to click play on the GIF)

W3BaLOg.gif

 

 

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More than a month of rainfall in just 3 hours around Philly.

https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1141329701178368000

Philadelphia has received more than 4 inches of rain in the past 3 hours. Normal rainfall for the entire month of June is 3.43 inches. Several Flash Flood Warnings are in effect, please heed them

https://mobile.twitter.com/Maxar_Weather/status/1141673939468529664

The 4.04" that Philly saw within a three-hour span overnight has an annual exceedance probability of 1%, or a so-called "100-year flood"

 

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It looks like it's trying to brighten outside looking south. Also the fog has lifted above 30th fl window in lower manhattan and I can see outside again.  

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Keep in mind it was the warm front that produced the flooding in NJ/PHL last evening. The small circulation currently in southern PA will help produce fairly numerous storms along the warm front this afternoon, which will likely be right over the city. The setup is different from yesterday and the day before, but I think we should see fairly numerous thunderstorms ~2-7PM. Already getting development in NJ/PA.

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7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Keep in mind it was the warm front that produced the flooding in NJ/PHL last evening. The small circulation currently in southern PA will help produce fairly numerous storms along the warm front this afternoon, which will likely be right over the city. The setup is different from yesterday and the day before, but I think we should see fairly numerous thunderstorms ~2-7PM. Already getting development in NJ/PA.

HRDPS is showing your thoughts also.

 

image.png

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12 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Keep in mind it was the warm front that produced the flooding in NJ/PHL last evening. The small circulation currently in southern PA will help produce fairly numerous storms along the warm front this afternoon, which will likely be right over the city. The setup is different from yesterday and the day before, but I think we should see fairly numerous thunderstorms ~2-7PM. Already getting development in NJ/PA.

So where is the warm front currently.  What about up in the Lower Hudson Valley?

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

 

Northern PA/NJ/NY into New England...
   Persistent cloud cover is limiting heating/destabilization from
   northern PA/NJ northward into New England.  Despite the limited
   thermodynamic environment, model guidance and recent radar trends
   suggest the potential for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. 
   Forecast soundings show very favorable vertical shear profiles for
   organized or even rotating storms capable of gusty winds and perhaps
   a tornado.  However, given the weak CAPE profiles, it appears that
   the severe risk in this area will remain widely spaced and primarily
   marginal. Nevertheless, have extended the SLGT risk area northward
   into central NY ahead of ongoing strong activity.

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3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

 

Northern PA/NJ/NY into New England...
   Persistent cloud cover is limiting heating/destabilization from
   northern PA/NJ northward into New England.  Despite the limited
   thermodynamic environment, model guidance and recent radar trends
   suggest the potential for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. 
   Forecast soundings show very favorable vertical shear profiles for
   organized or even rotating storms capable of gusty winds and perhaps
   a tornado.  However, given the weak CAPE profiles, it appears that
   the severe risk in this area will remain widely spaced and primarily
   marginal. Nevertheless, have extended the SLGT risk area northward
   into central NY ahead of ongoing strong activity.

The SPC also added a 2% tornado risk for the upstate ny / new england area. The HRRR has been showing a chance of tornado up there for the last 12 runs so SPC must feel it is on to something. If there is a tornado up there it will be embedded in that messy line. I think the EPA / South Jersey area will cash in like they always do. 

XUc7xKp.png

 

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