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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

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35 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I think that positively titled trough to the west will kick it NE too late for us.  Needs to be neutral negative is my thought.  

As of today yes. But that 500 look to my untrained eye looks like it has massive potential for the east coast.

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

As of today yes. But that 500 look to my untrained eye looks like it has massive potential for the east coast.

Agree.  Potential is there.  I wont say "massive" until at least Saturday or Sunday.  Nope, wont do it... not even for you W-dog. 

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Both 12z icon and 6z FV3 looked decent at h5 imo and not  far from the ( Showmethesnow:D) storm. I mean...for 7/8 days out not bad...  Right?

6z FV3 actually closes off for a time later on 

fv3p_z500_vort_namer_34.png

Icon is neutral at 180

icon_z500_vort_namer_61.png

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I’ll say this...the h5 solutions on the 12z guidance are crazy and definitely enough to keep me interested a while longer. So far nothing is really bringing it together at the surface. Sloppy phases. Weird fujiwara solutions. Crazy ways to fail with actually a great h5 setup...lol. 

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Things are trending exactly as I said they would. +PNA is dampened, too much NAO, but it's basing out of the AO. The ENSO subsurface is now trending away from El Nino.  It looks like +PNA breaks down to a more mild Spring pattern already by day 15 on GFS ensembles. These stick, in my experience. 

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3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Things are trending exactly as I said they would. +PNA is dampened, too much NAO, but it's basing out of the AO. The ENSO subsurface is now trending away from El Nino.  It looks like +PNA breaks down to a more mild Spring pattern already by day 15 on GFS ensembles. These stick, in my experience. 

Sweet, maybe the whole subforum can cash out at once. What an exit.

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Problem is there's not enough cold air behind this system and the high ahead of it is too far south. Sets us up for a cold air moves out then precip moves in scenario.  Still a lot of time for things to change.

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20 minutes ago, Amped said:

Problem is there's not enough cold air behind this system and the high ahead of it is too far south. Sets us up for a cold air moves out then precip moves in scenario.  Still a lot of time for things to change.

True at this juncture. Things definitely have to change before we can cash in.

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1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

True at this juncture. Things definitely have to change before we can cash in.

On 3/12/2019 at 2:56 PM, psuhoffman said:

euro laughs at us... 1005 mb low near Bermuda LOL

Flow is way too progressive in the northern stream on the euro.  

is it me or was that the worst run  of the euro this season?

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11 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Euro tracks our storm over the Grand Bahamas or about 1400 km south of where we want it

At least its setting up the pattern for the March 32nd snowstorm

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Tragic ending

I’m sure you didn’t really think we’d get a parting HECS.  It’s just not in the cards this winter.  We’ll get em next season. 

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35 minutes ago, Ji said:

Tragic ending

Man cut it out...ya got a foot in January and are probably above average. Acting like this winter was as bad as 2017 or 2011-12 or something...smh

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man cut it out...ya got a foot in January and are probably above average. Acting like this winter was as bad as 2017 or 2011-12 or something...smh

In his defense for a climo plus winter it seemed much worse.  I can’t figure out why.  Maybe unrealistic expectations. If it was progged to be a disaster maybe it would feel different.  

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19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

In his defense for a climo plus winter it seemed much worse.  I can’t figure out why.  Maybe unrealistic expectations. If it was progged to be a disaster maybe it would feel different.  

To me, this winter did not feel as bad as last year or the year before did (and I haven't hit average...and likely won't unless next week becomes a legit threat, lol). It was literally average...Close misses and and no hits to make up for them make a winter much worse in my mind. This year, the only real painful miss was early December. After that, the opportunities were few, but the few we got we maximized (and had some nice "deep winter" moments). So I guess I'd put it in the "okay" category because of that!

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

Tragic ending

Fitting.  There is still time for a sneak attack. 

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

I’m sure you didn’t really think we’d get a parting HECS.  It’s just not in the cards this winter.  We’ll get em next season. 

No, we won't.  It's now or never. According to AOC, we only have 12 years left. These models are going to show all kinds of outcomes in the next three days. On Saturday we will begin to see clarity once the front moves thru.

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs March 1999 clipper monday?

Didn’t we get like 6-8 inches from that.  Doesn’t look like that event.  

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Didn’t we get like 6-8 inches from that.  Doesn’t look like that event.  
That's the only March clipper I can remember. We got 8-12

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:
6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
Didn’t we get like 6-8 inches from that.  Doesn’t look like that event.  

That's the only March clipper I can remember. We got 8-12

Wow.  Yes it just kept snowing.  Over performer.  The good old days.  

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, BristowWx said:
Didn’t we get like 6-8 inches from that.  Doesn’t look like that event.  

That's the only March clipper I can remember. We got 8-12

I’ll never forget that one. Definitely an overperformer. I was 8 months pregnant and driving from Fairfax to GT hospital for a job (I’m an interpreter). It was pouring snow here but I called my office in Silver Spring and it was barely doing anything there. I think we had over a foot in some areas. By the afternoon it was over and the roads were already melting. 

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4 hours ago, Ji said:
4 hours ago, BristowWx said:
Didn’t we get like 6-8 inches from that.  Doesn’t look like that event.  

That's the only March clipper I can remember. We got 8-12

Nope, there was another one in March 2007. Not as impressive. 1-3”.

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