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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Not Over Until the Fat Lady Sings....all of the models are showing low pressure in various places middle-end of next week.  Enjoy the last 10 days of tracking!!!!!

I got one more in me.  11th hour blizzard would be memorable just when the regular world thought it was over. 

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7 hours ago, das said:

Some of the experimental work to assess the impact of MJO on tangible North American weather is yielding interesting results.  For example, typically, Phase 8 of the MJO is typically cold in the east DJF but, when the experimental Multivariate PNA (MVP) is negative, it actually trends warm.  MVP is assessing OLR as a decent proxy for tropical convection in the MJO domains as well as streamwaves at 850 and 200 hPA in near real time .  If you look at the MVP plot for the last 90 days, you can see it has indeed been negative during the time period we expected the best outcomes according to the ENSO and MJO forecasts.  

849375815_90DayMVP.thumb.jpg.83e7083c75fd65c104d80c5e2714e5f5.jpg

 

If y'all want to dig into MVP a bit, here's some decent reading.  

Peer-reviewed, evidenced-based paper:

mwr-d-13-00118.1.pdf

White paper inject for NWS staff:

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/37CDPW/37cdpw-cschreck.pdf

Easy-to-digest slide deck from the researchers:

https://slideplayer.com/slide/13103907/

Link to real-time Multivariate PNA outputs:

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/extratropics/

BTW, click around that site if you are interested in tropical forcing outputs.  There's an absolute treasure trove of MJO & tropical forcing data there.

Was interested to note at in the slide deck how the infamous Morch 2012 was preceded by some not-bad looking MJO history.  Most of February spent in 8 -1- 2.

 

image.png.7f896a5f2f5c74b4138c82402e4ace56.png

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13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Glad you differentiated between the regular world and the bizarro world that makes up this forum.

Yes.  We all share insanity as a common trait. Too old to change now so might as well embrace the fact there are others like me...and you

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