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Baum

Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

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47 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

If the RGEM is right, things are looking good for us.

We must have got close to 4" in my neighbourhood this morning.

YYZ officially reporting 4" on the nose from last night.  Honestly, it may be tough to beat that tomorrow.  This ul energy sort of blows its load over the western lakes, and we're left with the scraps as it dissolves into the descending PV.

Could get some lake enhancement though early on.  I'd go with 3-6" for tomorrow.  The more contribution from Lake Ontario, the closer we get to the high end of that. 

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6 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Given the 12z Euro, I don’t think there’s enough support for LOT to shift the warning area south. 

I think there good. Though there has been a trend south  as the GFS came a touch south, and the Euro (which was a south outlier) a hair north to reach a consensus track just north of me.

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1 minute ago, Baum said:

I think there good. Though there has been a trend south  as the GFS came a touch south, and the Euro (which was a south outlier) a hair north to reach a consensus track just north of me.

“Warning” is 6 inches in 6 hours or 8 inches in 12 hours right? Wind impacts = Blizzard headlines correct? Believe we are supposed to get some wind with this but not enough to meet criteria?

I’m right on the LOT 4-6/6-8 line and the timing of this is going to be awful for AM commute and school. 

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4 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

“Warning” is 6 inches in 6 hours or 8 inches in 12 hours right? Wind impacts = Blizzard headlines correct? Believe we are supposed to get some wind with this but not enough to meet criteria?

I’m right on the LOT 4-6/6-8 line and the timing of this is going to be awful for AM commute and school. 

From LOT's aviation update: 

"very little change from previuos thinking"

and that's Izzi who is a master at making changes.

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MKE update

 

National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1200 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

.UPDATE...
Most of the 12z suite of model output is available. The biggest
differences of note are the RAP/HRRR/ARW/NMM being northern
outliers with the surface low track (across southern WI), while
the NAM/GFS/GEM/00z ECMWF move the low across northern Illinois.
Always challenging to have such differences this close to the
event, but the do dictate where the heaviest band of snow will set
up. Ensemble means still ride the state line at this point. Will
continue to update QPF/Snow totals early this afternoon with
updates out shortly thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Major winter storm will affect the region tonight and Monday. No
major changes to snow start time, beginning roughly 01-03 UTC over
western portions of the area (MSN) and 03-05 UTC over the eastern
half of the area (UES/MKE/ENW). One to two inch per hour snowfall
rates are possible late this evening through the overnight hours.
Biggest change to the forecast was to keep snow longer during the
morning hours, ending by mid afternoon. More tweaks to the end
timing are likely. Expect IFR/LIFR with the heavy snow overnight,
gradually improving late Monday morning and afternoon.

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25 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Reviewing 12z data including short range ensembles and SREF plumes... really thinking it’s going to be tough to get more than 2-5” out of this for areas east of and south of I-69 due to the dry slot unless this pulls a fast one and is further south. However... this isn’t your average storm. And I should also add that there is absolutely no consensus on the SREF plumes - literally shows anything from 0.5” to 12.5” with no tightening to show a slight agreement. NWS’s have their work cut out for them again on this one. 

Same story of this season - we ride a last-minute edge here!

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Kind of the opposite I thought would happen given 12z guidance trends, is for the 12z ECMWF to come a bit north.


.

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36 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Reviewing 12z data including short range ensembles and SREF plumes... really thinking it’s going to be tough to get more than 2-5” out of this for areas east of and south of I-69 due to the dry slot unless this pulls a fast one and is further south. However... this isn’t your average storm. And I should also add that there is absolutely no consensus on the SREF plumes - literally shows anything from 0.5” to 12.5” with no tightening to show a slight agreement. NWS’s have their work cut out for them again on this one. 

 Still lots of discrepancy in the northern and Southern edges of this thing. Glad we got a good surprise snow last night because I expect to be on the lower end tomorrow, still should see a good thump though.

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33 minutes ago, WinterStorm294 said:

Euro shifted the heavy snow about 30 miles north in SEMI. Still have hope for a south shift but worried about getting dry slotted like the NAM shows. 

 

They've been backing off on the dry slotting some, so I think it should be fine knock on wood for you all.

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21 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

“Warning” is 6 inches in 6 hours or 8 inches in 12 hours right? Wind impacts = Blizzard headlines correct? Believe we are supposed to get some wind with this but not enough to meet criteria?

I’m right on the LOT 4-6/6-8 line and the timing of this is going to be awful for AM commute and school. 

6 in 12 hours or 8 in 24.  Of course this criteria is bent sometimes.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Kind of the opposite I thought would happen given 12z guidance trends, is for the 12z ECMWF to come a bit north.


.

Agree, has been confounding to say the least. 

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5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Still lots of discrepancy in the northern and Southern edges of this thing. Glad we got a good surprise snow last night because I expect to be on the lower end tomorrow, still should see a good thump though.

Can you imagine if the 12z GEM verified? Haha less is more and more is less!

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Just now, Harry Perry said:

Can you imagine if the 12z GEM verified? Haha less is more and more is less!

The storm is coming from Canada, Eh!

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I’ve been constantly reminded over the last 4-5 years just how terrible our snow climo is. Fully expecting to lose snowpack tomorrow as temps rise 35-36 degrees with a howling wind. Congrats to Chicago and the crew up north. 

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The latest HRRR has come up a bit to 0.25" in Cedar Rapids, which is also what the Euro has stabilized at, so that's probably a pretty good guess.  I think the 0.50" GFS and GEM are out to lunch.

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10 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

They've been backing off on the dry slotting some, so I think it should be fine knock on wood for you all.

Yeah hopefully they continue to back off. Either way, it should be the biggest snowfall of the season here so far. And we'll have a fresh snowpack which should help to maximize the cold.

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6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Kind of funny that Euro nudged north when it has been one of the most south models meanwhile other models bumped south

If you look at all the members and their SLP track and precipitation shield - you wouldn’t believe how much this low pressure is waivering around. Certainly not your normal every day low pressure. Most do have the low riding along the IL/WI border and then along the I-94 corridor ending up north of Detroit. 

 

One thing is for certain. It will snow and it’ll be heavy for a few hours. 

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4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Kind of funny that Euro nudged north when it has been one of the most south models meanwhile other models bumped south

Euro's been known to be stubborn, only yielding at the last hour. Has bit me here on several storms. Dec '12 bliz for a prime example

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Just now, Harry Perry said:

If you look at all the members and their SLP track and precipitation shield - you wouldn’t believe how much this low pressure is waivering around. Certainly not your normal every day low pressure. Most do have the low riding along the IL/WI border and then along the I-94 corridor through Detroit. 

 

One thing is for certain. It will snow and it’ll be heavy for a few hours. 

Front-end thumpers are nice, just had higher hopes for this based on where guidance began 5-7 days out.

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We're in process of upgrading Ogle county to WSW and holding WWA east of there for now. May revisit the decision again before 3pm.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Just now, Harry Perry said:

If you look at all the members and their SLP track and precipitation shield - you wouldn’t believe how much this low pressure is waivering around. Certainly not your normal every day low pressure. Most do have the low riding along the IL/WI border and then along the I-94 corridor ending up north of Detroit. 

 

One thing is for certain. It will snow and it’ll be heavy for a few hours. 

 

Just now, RogueWaves said:

Euro's been known to be stubborn, only yielding at the last hour. Has bit me here on several storms. Dec '12 bliz for a prime example

Yea Euro sometimes can really be out on it's own and nail it and other times it is out to lunch. I feel this will track near IL-WI border like most models have it. Maybe close to I88. Just hoping I can avoid getting too much rain here

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

 

Yea Euro sometimes can really be out on it's own and nail it and other times it is out to lunch. I feel this will track near IL-WI border like most models have it. Maybe close to I88. Just hoping I can avoid getting too much rain here

Hard to believe talking about rain and then -25 about 36 hours from them. 

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18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The latest HRRR has come up a bit to 0.25" in Cedar Rapids, which is also what the Euro has stabilized at, so that's probably a pretty good guess.  I think the 0.50" GFS and GEM are out to lunch.

Yeah it looks that way.  Hopefully the HRRR/RAP can keep trending upwards, but it's certainly looking like the 0.5" for CR/QC will be way too much.  Still a nice 3-5" event though, if we can get LSRs over 13:1, which I think is possible.  

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