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Baum

Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I wouldn't worry about the RAP or HRRR, as they're severely lagging. Each run they have been making a decent correction west/south.

The RAP and HRRR don't even have data coverage in much of Canada, so yeah, would not be too concerned about them yet.  System is getting closer to the US and they should keep correcting.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The RAP and HRRR don't even have data coverage in much of Canada, so yeah, would not be too concerned about them yet.  System is getting closer to the US and they should keep correcting.

Oh wow, that's interesting.  Learn something new everyday lol.

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Seems like a number of us are in the same boat... how much precip on the southern end and how fast do temps warm above freezing?  The 12z runs were not discouraging, and I'm starting to entertain the possibility of 5-6" even here if the rise above freezing can be delayed by just 2-3 hours... not entirely sold yet though.  

The thing about this is that past experience is not too helpful.  Normally you are screwed south of a clipper track but this isn't a typical setup.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The RAP and HRRR don't even have data coverage in much of Canada, so yeah, would not be too concerned about them yet.  System is getting closer to the US and they should keep correcting.

Also the last few systems they’ve played catch up big time leading up to an event 

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8 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Think LOT will have to extend warnings south a tier?

I would guess they will wait for the euro, but if it follows the trend, then you can probably fairly confidently add another row of counties

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1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I would guess they will wait for the euro, but if it follows continues setting the trend, then you can probably fairly confidently add another row of counties

Fixed that for you ^^

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Anecdotally our boy RC and Skilling were seemingly reluctant to rely on models for this one. Skilling especially always had this one tracking south. We will see.

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Just now, King James said:

Anecdotally our boy RC and Skilling were seemingly reluctant to rely on models for this one. Skilling especially always had this one tracking south. We will see.

And that why they are the last true "forecasters" left.  Seems as if everyone just hinge on the latest model runs these days

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Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

TWC now calling for 6-11 here 

Interesting.  Usually not a fan of there tactics but definitely a sign of a trend south.  You think that's a little excessive?  I was thinking more like 5-6" between Toledo and Hillsdale  

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Just now, ChiTownSnow said:

And that why they are the last true "forecasters" left.  Seems as if everyone just hinge on the latest model runs these days

am I missing something. I see there has been a slight shift south by the GFS. But it's not like this is tracking over Moline and than over Terre Haute. Majority of models still favor a track north of Chicago.

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8 minutes ago, Baum said:

am I missing something. I see there has been a slight shift south by the GFS. But it's not like this is tracking over Moline and than over Terre Haute. Majority of models still favor a track north of Chicago.

A few days ago when the track was through central Wisconsin, Skilling put out a map that was 100 miles south of that and stuck to it. He went against the models

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Just now, Malacka11 said:

Ok but how does the storm's current location match up to what models were forecasting the last few runs?

Fairly close.  GFS came a bit further south though.

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6 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

A few days ago when the track was through central Wisconsin, Skilling put out a map that was 100 miles south of that and stuck to it. He went against the models

Maybe it's tracking fatigue but outside of a rogue run or two, I don't remember the surface low track being shown that far north.  Consensus on southern WI/northern IL has been pretty solid for a while.

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7 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

A few days ago when the track was through central Wisconsin, Skilling put out a map that was 100 miles south of that and stuck to it. He went against the models

Yes. I commented on it. 

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Maybe it's tracking fatigue but outside of a rogue run or two, I don't remember the surface low track being shown that far north.  Consensus on southern WI/northern IL has been pretty solid for a while.

I agree however the models are taking the low farther south in Iowa before hooking and existing IL near Waukegan

 

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1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said:

GRR should already have warnings up in its southern most counties but GRR apparently is using different warning criteria than the rest of the country these days. 

Thank you! Extremely frustrating office, especially for one who lives along their SE most counties where we've been hit twice by 6-10" storms and no watch issued.

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Reviewing 12z data including short range ensembles and SREF plumes... really thinking it’s going to be tough to get more than 2-5” out of this for areas east of and south of I-69 due to the dry slot unless this pulls a fast one and is further south. However... this isn’t your average storm. And I should also add that there is absolutely no consensus on the SREF plumes - literally shows anything from 0.5” to 12.5” with no tightening to show a slight agreement. NWS’s have their work cut out for them again on this one. 

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