• Member Statistics

    15,858
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Waltzman
    Newest Member
    Waltzman
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Baum

Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

Recommended Posts

Think it makes sense to isolate this particular event away from the clipper train thread as it seems it has the potential to be somewhat more impactful. These type of events are some of my favorite as they are already moving into a bitterly cold arctic air mass and have the ability to pull both pacific and gulf moisture into the cold air mass creating a high ratio snow event and many times a fairly long duration snow event. Further, they posses the ability to provide wide areas of the forum a decent snowfall not as zone centric as some of this years previous storms. Last I recall of this type was the opening first few days of January 2014 that provided a similar storm followed by some brutally chilly air in the midwest....if memory serves me correct. We are still 4 days out so plenty can change but feel a thread highlighting this event is warranted.

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good call on forming this tread @Baum

These are typically good for lots of folks in the Sub, and pave the way for some nice cold.  One thing I do recall with these events is a strong dry slot and tight gradients, especially the stronger they are.  We shall see!  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NWS Chicago AFD highlighted "uncertainties are a bit lower then average" which is wording they don't use often... It is going to be an interesting next 10 days... If N IL does get more snow and the cold is as bad as it seems (with the wind chills), I could see a few days off school for kids next week... 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

18z GFS is a bit north.

And you get the prize for the first "directional shift" post in this thread (that will likely grow to the hundreds of posts very shortly...) ;-)

  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But for real, I agree with Andy’s last post in the other thread. Think there’s more potential with this system. We watch and wait...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Overall consistency from the models since Monday regarding this storm is actually pretty remarkable.  Also getting excited about a pretty strong LES signal (although details yet to be pinned down).

Still 96+ hours out, but so far looking good for our first 6"+ storm of the season.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, michaelmantis said:

And you get the prize for the first "directional shift" post in this thread (that will likely grow to the hundreds of posts very shortly...) ;-)

When do we see the 1st post where within minutes of each other one poster "insert model name looks north" while another 1 says of that same model "insert model name looks South"

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm looking forward to this system. Barring a complete miss I will be happy.  There is some frozen snow outside but those bare spots thanks to yesterday have to go. It's easy to be jealous of the deeper snow in eastern IA and western IL, but we cant jackpot every Winter. As long as a fresh looking winter wonderland returns for the record cold blast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Considering we are still a good ways out and within an envelope of 100ish miles, that’s a good signal. 

I would be cautiously optimistic if you are sitting north of I-80 to the WI border in IL. The real question is can this storm tap its full potential. Do we have a high end hybrid clipper, or one we can add to the “top storms” list. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Considering we are still a good ways out and within an envelope of 100ish miles, that’s a good signal. 

I would be cautiously optimistic if you are sitting north of I-80 to the WI border in IL. The real question is can this storm tap its full potential. Do we have a high end hybrid clipper, or one we can add to the “top storms” list. 

What these weak systems should do is reinforce the baroclinic zone and try to keep it farther south. Especially if one of these waves comes in stronger.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm surprised some are anxious to see the 84 hour nam. That's about as accurate as the 180 hour gfs lol

Lol I know it is a long shot. But hey it can't be worse than goofus right? ;)

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm looking forward to this system. Barring a complete miss I will be happy.  There is some frozen snow outside but those bare spots thanks to yesterday have to go. It's easy to be jealous of the deeper snow in eastern IA and western IL, but we cant jackpot every Winter. As long as a fresh looking winter wonderland returns for the record cold blast.

My thoughts exactly.  Not gonna be greedy.  Just want to be hospitable when his majesty from the North comes for a visit.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just unbelievable to think how this storm will be further priming an already favorable setup for historic cold. I think we are going to see a lot of records shattered. I can't even fathom wind chills of -40 and lower. Last year we got into wind chills well into the -20's and that was awful

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Just unbelievable to think how this storm will be further priming an already favorable setup for historic cold. I think we are going to see a lot of records shattered. I can't even fathom wind chills of -40 and lower. Last year we got into wind chills well into the -20's and that was awful

January 2014 featured -50°F to -60°F wind chill temperatures here in Northwest Ohio.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Jim Martin said:

January 2014 featured -50°F to -60°F wind chill temperatures here in Northwest Ohio.

I think that's the cold snap I'm thinking of that was unprecedented before this one. That one also featured a piece of the polar vortex coming very far south

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My plan is to go out in a t-shirt on my driveway for thirty seconds so that I can appreciate just how cold it really is, simply because who knows when we'll be able to experience it again (if this outbreak is really as severe as is currently shown to be possible). /s

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Malacka11 said:

My plan is to go out in a t-shirt on my driveway for thirty seconds so that I can appreciate just how cold it really is, simply because who knows when we'll be able to experience it again (if this outbreak is really as severe as is currently shown to be possible). /s

I think you will regret that instantly. Try for a polar plunge or a snow angel. Lol. I'm definitely going to do the infamous boiling water to ice crystals. Sorry to get off topic

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I think you will regret that instantly. Try for a polar plunge or a snow angel. Lol. I'm definitely going to do the infamous boiling water to ice crystals. Sorry to get off topic

Hey... That's actually a great idea! I've seen so many videos of it but doing it myself would be something else. As long as I don't scald my a** in the process. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Huh! Lot's of chatta but not one eye-candy map. I like the restraint of this sub! Guess we're saving 'em for closer in. Well then..

Yea still too early ;) 0z nam had a track similar to 18z gfs. But gfs has been all over the place and that's nam's long range so not really reliable at this point

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.