mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, Baum said: storm threads are not just for your back yard. I think you’re a little biased in this matter :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, mimillman said: I think you’re a little biased in this matter :p the GFS shows 5.2 at your place on today's 12Z. That's not a shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 So if I am understanding all this correctly, there is still some disagreement among the models then. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Still pretty sizable spread on the GEFS. The operational model trends except for UKMET are what they are today, though not gonna punt this for northern IL. This synoptic setup is a tough one for the models to nail and some of the important features are in a data void area. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Thanks RC. E3/E20 are how I see this eventually unfolding, favoring the IL/WI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 If you're south of the track, there could be a little consolation prize in the form of a burst of accumulating snow along/behind the cold front. Plenty of model signals for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Longevity of the most severe cold has definitely trended back to a significant degree. Yeah, I saw that, was just being a smarta$$. I honestly would not want the intrusion to be as prolonged as was earlier depicted. Just brutal and life-threatening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 To RCNY point above the 12Z operational GFS was north of the 6z but the 12Z GEFS is better than the 6z GEFS Good point. Spread actually increased on 12z GEFS vs 06z GEFS, showing the sensitive nature of the pattern evolution for this hybrid. We have 2 PV pieces dropping south over Canada that will play a role, another northern stream wave dropping southeast over Canada, and the parent short wave is well out over Pacific in the Gulf of AK. It won't be fully ashore into northern BC until tomorrow afternoon/evening. I think it is probably safe to say that areas south of I-80 are less likely to get into the potential 6"+ snow swath at this point but areas north still certainly in the game. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Thanks RC. E3/E20 are how I see this eventually unfolding, favoring the IL/WI border. and that is at 10:1 ratio so snowfall should be higher. Just trying to stay positive trends today have not been our friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I always get a kick out of how storm threads are a roller coaster based on the models. 1st everyone was saying this was going to go South South South because of previous clipper tracks, cold, etc, and now its North, has Wisconsin special written all over it, etc.. If the models were people they would get a kick out of how they play with our minds. I personally would like a little nudge South on the models. Doing OK right now, but GFS is a little too far North for my liking. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12z Euro coming in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Euro 72hr 998 SE IOWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: Euro 72hr 998 SE IOWA Not going to be as far north as most other 12z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Big hit I-80 and north. Good to see but also doesn't change the fact that nothing is set in stone with so many moving parts. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 One thing I noticed and this is in the mesoscale so it has a chance to change but the areas on the NAM and GFS that get rain, are below freezing as soon as 950mb. The surface warmth is very shallow and only getting a couple degrees above freezing at most. To me that tells me heavy wet snow over rain. Obviously this is more of a detail that is highly subject to change but just looking at the current projections in the here and now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 The 12z ECMWF was south of the 6z run.10-15” across N. Illinois this run.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: The 12z ECMWF was south of the 6z run. 10-15” across N. Illinois this run. . How about Iowa? More importantly, where does the cutoff reside? I’m expecting somewhat similar placement, but more robust than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Even a solid 6" down to Kankakee. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 How about Iowa? More importantly, where does the cutoff reside? I’m expecting somewhat similar placement, but more robust than 00z.6-9” CID, 3-6” IOW. So right around there is the gradient.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 6-9” CID, 3-6” IOW. So right around there is the gradient. . Tooooo close. Got a really strong feeling this goes north of my area. Possible mixing issues as well. Though a south trend of 50-75 miles would make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The 12z ECMWF was south of the 6z run. 10-15” across N. Illinois this run. . Looked a bit south of 00z even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Not looking forward to the fluff to cement scenario. Especially with the cold behind the storm. Will be a rough clean up I'm thinking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 WPC update: --18Z UPDATE--- No change to the initial model preference. The 12Z ECMWF slowed down the trough over the Gulf further, but the same preference in that area (timing compromise) is still preferred. With the clipper system, the 12Z UKMET trended closer to the GFS for the low track, but the ECMWF remained closer south and was joined by the GEFS Mean. The preference there is to continue with a non-NAM blend, with a slightly higher weight on the GFS. The GEFS is in more agreement with the Euro according to them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 8-14" for Grand Rapids 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 IWX says all the weighted ensemble means remain south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Most 12z ECMWF ENS's are around or to the south of the OP track. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 24 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: IWX says all the weighted ensemble means remain south IWX now mentioning potential of heavy snow accumulations in their zone forecast product too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Stebo said: One thing I noticed and this is in the mesoscale so it has a chance to change but the areas on the NAM and GFS that get rain, are below freezing as soon as 950mb. The surface warmth is very shallow and only getting a couple degrees above freezing at most. To me that tells me heavy wet snow over rain. Obviously this is more of a detail that is highly subject to change but just looking at the current projections in the here and now. Very good point, I have been wondering about this too. I also think its unlikely that we see areas in the "warm sector" get to or above 40 despite what the GFS suggests. One of the finer details that will become clearer as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Even a solid 6" down to Kankakee.As long as I’m in the game, thanks for the update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 NWS Chicago just now on Twitter... I'll take these odds... "Significant snow is possible beginning on Sunday in the late aftn to early evening hours. Right now, areas north of I-88 have a greater than 50% chance of seeing at least 6 inches of snow. Stay tuned to the forecast for the latest updates. amounts across the area." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Looks like 18z NAM may be coming in a tad south but we’ll see EDIT: nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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