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Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29


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Just now, Hoosier said:

It does look like there's going to be a zone that gets thumped with heavy snow, changes to rain for a while, and then changes back to snow.

Yea I noticed that. I get a front end thump on gfs and then rain and then back to snow

 

Just now, geddyweather said:

Curious how the thermals play out with this one. 00z NAM/GFS get anywhere from mid 30s to low 40s up as far north as the I-80/I-90 corridor in IN/OH. Not getting too out of shape about it just yet at 96 hours, but something to watch. 

I think thermals may be overdone given where this system is originating and the fact there isn't a lot of warm air near it to pull north. But it does have a robust llj so that could do it

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4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

To me the track should keep going se along the baroclinic zone. It's like right before it gets into IL it turns east. It's weird. It taking that more easterly turn always the "warmer" air south to creep more north

The idea of an east turn seems reasonable to me.  The gyre in southeast Canada starts to lift out, which gives an opening.  Where the east turn happens could change of course.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

The idea of an east turn seems reasonable to me.  The gyre in southeast Canada starts to lift out, which gives an opening.  Where the east turn happens could change of course.

True. Didn't think of that. Wpc has it turn east further south on their map. Closer to I72 versus I80 on gfs

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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12-18" IL/WI border.

Normally being in the bullseye this far off is a sure bet for disappointment but there doesn’t seem like there really is a huge spread/range for this thing to move. A storm like this followed by such cold would be a huge 3 day weather event wherever it does occur. 

How wide is the significant snow band?

 

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1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Well my bad. Guess I didn't pay enough attention to that. You think we will see a south trend with this as we get closer? 

We seem to be seeing agreement on an SLP track somewhere around I-80.

While sampling won't be until 0z Saturday evening runs, tomorrow might be the last shot to keep you in the game given trends.

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21 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

Normally being in the bullseye this far off is a sure bet for disappointment but there doesn’t seem like there really is a huge spread/range for this thing to move. A storm like this followed by such cold would be a huge 3 day weather event wherever it does occur. 

How wide is the significant snow band?

 

On the ECMWF the 12"+ axis is the two northern tiers of counties in N. IL and the two southern tier in S. WI...So fairly wide.

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6 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I'd like it to ideally come back a bit south. Getting a wee bit north for my liking, but I won't complain. Still a 6" system in IC.

Yeah it'd be great to see the track from the 12z Euro verify.  A combo of the 12z Euro track and the strength of the new 00z would be perfect for both our areas.  Gonna be another fun period of model tracking over the next 48hrs.  I'm not even gonna bother to guess what we'll get with this storm since my forecasts have sucked ass the past few events.

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15 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Would like to see a shift back south at 12z. The trend north in guidance is a bit unnerving.

Optimistic though given what we saw with the previous two systems.

A lot of people were thinking this was going South but all the last models have been wagons North. Still looks good here but I too would not mind a nudge South. 6z GEFS is perfect.

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