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Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

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I was bored so I figured i'd see what meso models were doing with tonights  snow up here and such..  rgem caught my eye and it seemed to handle tonight's well up here and its sure been sexy for this storm for about 3 runs now.  NAM sure went more the way of rgem I was salivating at.

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

0z hrrr seems pretty warm compared to most guidance which is around 33-34. That has temps nearing 40 which I think is unlikely this north

Don't underestimate the strong WAA again...

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

0z hrrr seems pretty warm compared to most guidance which is around 33-34. That has temps nearing 40 which I think is unlikely this north

I'll be honest....I'd love to get some liquid precip ahead of the wind and arctic air to lock down this pixie dust. I don't want to be snow blowing when it's -20 with 20MPH wind.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Don't underestimate the strong WAA again...

Exactly.  I'd bet money it is more realistic with warm sector temps than the coldest models.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Don't underestimate the strong WAA again...

I'm not? Hrrr was running hot last time. Ended up hitting like 35 max but overall was around 33-34 all day. WAA with that last system was deep. Doesn't seem as deep with this system imo and doesn't get as north

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6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z GFS coming in a bit south early on.

Ends up running just north of the IL/WI border.

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I would question the rainfall depiction on that HRRR even if the track verified, it would likely be mostly snow and just very small amounts of rain. But I also don't think the track will verify that far north. 

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1 hour ago, DaveNay said:

I'll be honest....I'd love to get some liquid precip ahead of the wind and arctic air to lock down this pixie dust. I don't want to be snow blowing when it's -20 with 20MPH wind.

Was kind of thinking the same.  The past two clippers layed down quite a bit of fluff on top of an already blow-able snow.  If we can get a brief period of rain/freezing rain it would make the 3rd layer of ice within the snow pack lol.

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6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I would question the rainfall depiction on that HRRR even if the track verified, it would likely be mostly snow and just very small amounts of rain. But I also don't think the track will verify that far north. 

Thanks for the insight..How far south are you thinking?

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Was kind of thinking the same.  The past two clippers layed down quite a bit of fluff on top of an already blow-able snow.  If we can get a brief period of rain/freezing rain it would make the 3rd layer of ice within the snow pack lol.

Must be nice to discuss options on your Ferrari instead of just being happy you have one lmao:D 

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13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I would question the rainfall depiction on that HRRR even if the track verified, it would likely be mostly snow and just very small amounts of rain. But I also don't think the track will verify that far north. 

Even if it is mostly snow, temps warming above freezing would slow accumulation rate.

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The Canadian come a bit south with the heavier snow!  Maybe since the storm is coming from Canada, it's the go to model??  I like the OOZ trends this evening in the Michiana area.  

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6 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Must be nice to discuss options on your Ferrari instead of just being happy you have one lmao:D 

Gucci interior or Vuitton?

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Just now, Frog Town said:

The Canadian come a bit south with the heavier snow!  Maybe since the storm is coming from Canada, it's the go to model??  I like the OOZ trends this evening in the Michiana area.  

Have actually seen people say that the Canadian does better on systems coming from Canada.  Sounds like one of those things that should be a myth. 

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With the system now on land and if you want more southern shifts, you have to hope that the behavior starts to depart a little bit from the model progs at 6 hrs, 12 hrs, etc. and that the models play "catch up."  One of the things I will be watching is where it enters the US.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

With the system now on land and if you want more southern shifts, you have to hope that the behavior starts to depart a little bit from the model progs at 6 hrs, 12 hrs, etc. and that the models play "catch up."  One of the things I will be watching is where it enters the US.

Pretty good consensus along the state line which is rare at this point.

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