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About Moosey2323

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Location:
    Southeast Michigan

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  1. NAM with a kill shot for Southeast Michigan. I don't want to get my hopes up but...
  2. I think the general rule of thumb is to underestimate the northward extent of the warm front, especially in situations with convection to the south. The Euro/Canadian seems to place the warm front too far north. I think the NAM 3km is the better solution.
  3. The Euro is still a lot warmer than the NAM. That warm front placement is still very uncertain and will dictate the precipitation for Michigan especially
  4. At forecast hour 12, the Euro is already 10 degrees warmer than the NAM 3km
  5. Not sure if this has been posted yet, but an excellent read from the LOT AFD about the ice numbers shown on model output.
  6. To illustrate the differences in the warm front placement...Taken at the same time for NAM and RDPS
  7. There are still significant differences in terms of the placement of the warm front in Michigan. The NAM and GFS don't have any of the 40s or 50s getting into Michigan before the main precip while the Canadian models show warm temps making it up. This is a major difference because it determines whether the ground will be warm enough to avoid ice accumulation.
  8. In terms of headlines, would any watches go out tomorrow? Or Friday?
  9. Updated WPC forecast for ice meeting warning conditions
  10. The main issue with this freezing rain is going to be anything that is elevated. Trees and powerlines are going to take most of the ice.
  11. Interesting that the op GFS is the extreme with regards to temperature.
  12. Yes, but nothing compared to the numbers on the NAM. Even the LOT AFD acknowledged this was likely erroneous.
  13. I still think the icing needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The precip rates are going to be quite high. The NAM is definitely overdoing it.