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About sokolow

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  1. This forecasting exercise will come up, so I figured I would post it embedded as this guy works through the inbuilt assumptions. Click thru show thread, 20 odd tweets in chain, no 1-page collated version because thread aggregator was janky for me. Must read for model lovers, cause for cautious optimism and serious concern
  2. if your employer has a closet full of PPE sitting around if you yourself have an open box of n95s or what have you, check with all the cops, EMTs, fire rescue, RNs and doctors you personally know & make sure they got a stash. they’re already rationing PPE at my wifes workplace and i have been told it makes a huge difference to know you have a new clean mask, bunny suit, whatever waiting if the one you’ve got gets soiled beyond use; an emergency airway w patient in distress eg is not a clean affair same with niosh rated half / full mask painting & remediation gear if they’re in good condition and you have spare clean filter sets
  3. Ran across that because a friend sent me to this thread by @kakape about what expert observers thought were plausible and probable near term scenarios before the current outbreak
  4. Anyway came here to post this Click to embiggen
  5. Absolutely not, we should absolutely refuse to accept an outlook where inhumanity starts and ends with the actions of our perceived enemies. If we’re going to count up the mountains of skulls, the armies of widows and orphans, the misery we make with political and economic actions or failures to act we need to put the USA, the British empire, and all the colonial powers in the same bin to be judged. We should not permit our own governments to get away with having “sinned quietly” by comparison, because for whatever reason it is convenient and comfortable to start history after 1857 or 1907 or 1957. I say “sinned quietly” because the person who wrote it made a deliberate choice to carry out policy he knew he should revile, when he damn well knew better We have to apply minimally *the same or higher* standards and hold our own “regimes” to higher levels of scrutiny and humanitarian standard whether historical or contemporary. btw as far as it goes for me this is not about like, equivocating or to excuse, to run an exercise in apologetics for a foreign government. its historical honesty we need to have about ourselves if we want a better future
  6. @RCNYILWX I think it is important to recognize that China is not an evil and monolithic orwellian total state with iron control over an antlike brainwashed populace; geopolitically it’s a modern state-capitalist superpower with a strong centralized government that has foreign, domestic, and economic policy priorities different to those of the USA. Those priorities don’t rate some individual rights as highly, and do rate some collective rights more highly. Nonetheless the level of active surveillance power & coercive intrusion the central government can apply is probably less than the DDR had at its height and likely less than the USA can apply to you or me if it thinks we’re a national security threat If I wanted to round up a dozen candid accounts & frank opinions from Chinese nationals all I’d have to do is just ask a bunch of friends and I’d probably get answers within a day
  7. Anyway I think if there’s one area PRC public health authorities might be keeping quiet that’d be real positive if there was glaring transparency, it’d be what they know or don’t know about asymptomatic carriers & transmission. AFAICT from what my spouse says, even her major research institution is grappling with the issue. Also if you can help now is a great time to call down your phone tree and make sure your family, friends, neighbors, church members, coworkers all are gonna be able to make rent & fill their pantries. Check with your local food bank
  8. Even if we want to pretend China was 100% maliciously covering it up or first and foremost covering its own incompetence or whatever — if we are seriously indicting China my god the magnitude of blame the USA deserves for how we failed to use our seven weeks to prepare to save lives and the common wealth, if we for one minute are willing to apply the standard of scrutiny to ourselves as a nation that we think others deserve.
  9. From an effective patient zero, lets say it took a month for the PRC public health system to identify clinically, trace and type, and begin assessing the outbreak of a novel — though not unfamiliar — zoonotic virus and another three weeks to recognize the gravity of the situation and implement measures which at the time! remember! parts of the anglosphere MSM insinuated were authoritarian and draconian — that brings us to the end of January. Seven weeks. My household including healthcare professionals heard about the potential for this to be serious on the 26th of January, and about then my spouse started getting workplace briefings. OK let’s say that China’s government or scientific establishment was negligent or irresponsible — and I don’t really think they were, but for the sake of argument lets just grant it. OK its about seven weeks from end of January when they were airlifting out UK nationals and the world was coming to grips with the idea this was serious I do not really see that we, in the United States, leveraged the benefit of their experience to prepare. The USA didn’t have to identify the novel pathogen, didn’t have to describe its behavior or learn how to screen for it. So if the NYT can scold China for failing to contain it what do we say about our own leadership used our own seven weeks if in that time we couldn’t even produce and deploy a rapid test that other people in other countries have since already invented and implemented on a mass scale
  10. I got 15 cases of hard seltzer, my Doppler on Wheels dakimakura, and assorted handguns & mall bought samurai swords strewn within easy reach about my dimly-lit flag-draped living room. i’m ready for anything.
  11. Also speaking of the This Week in Virology podcast Lots of great stuff there
  12. I think critically aware skepticism is appropriate for dealing with what pretty much any government, corporation, or media outlet is claiming but given that, i don’t get the impression that the UN (say) or science communicators like the TWIV crew think Chinese offcial information or media is full of sh¡t.
  13. At least being weather dorks has given us that spicy prepper edge & a fundamental fascination with staring at computer screens slamming f5 to see how well numerical models verify in simulating chaotic, emergent phenomena. How long until the subforum comes up with the sars-cov2 versions of DAB and “wagons ______”. Which public health & epidemiology figures will be the new skilling? which research institute will emerge as the euro of pandemic modeling? Work for me is going full speed and probably will keep on until the governor says shut it or marty ozinga stops making concrete.