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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol...I actually got a new cell right before it started snowing.  My nearly 20 year old daughter was 5.  Loved that storm!  And we got whacked with a clipper a few days later. 

Actually i should say, 2 of the 3 are in highschool and 1 is in college...and the youngest wasnt even a year old yet...damn, kids change fast...

I didnt join FB until 2008, i actually might have had my first flip phone or i got it that summer

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15 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

You are 100% correct. Plymouth got around 3ft of paste and i lived in medway and got around a foot of dry powder...

This year getting a foot would be amazing!!! But i was so bummed during that storm

There's no way it was all paste in PYM...maybe at the height of it very briefly. But it was frigid.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's no way it was all paste in PYM...maybe at the height of it very briefly. But it was frigid.

I think it looked pastey because it was windblown, but you are correct, plym got a ton of powder storms that year, it was sne coast winter that year!

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

LOL....certainly a different world way up there.  

We need to catch a break here, you would think something would/should give at some point???  And I know sometimes it just doesn't...I grew up in the 80's and I remember how everything would always go wrong..almost all the time, so I understand how this can just stay as is right through to the end too...hoping that doesn't happen though??? 

 

I get the MJO is part of it all no doubt....but as I said earlier this winter(back in Dec) it's this years Catch phrase; like PV was 5 years back, and NAO was before that, and EPO was back in 15 etc etc....

 

 

Net gain up there yesterday even with some rain, They had 4-5" of snow weds night.

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49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

RIP Messenger, that was certainly his favorite winter lol and his predictions beat the model consensus all winter long.  I think the Pats have been going to every SB since he passed on?

I ran across 3 pictures he sent me of him and his family. Sucks traumatic brain injuries are no joke in how it affects your actions. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Moving onto Feb, AIT. Maybe we get uber lucky with a hangback shortwave next week but odds are stacked against us. 

I'm going to take the 6 inches the EURO gave me on the front end last night and run with....hopefully I can glacierize that when the vortex roles in. Otherwise stick with the model that gives the least amount of snow and the most amount of rain and forecast it :maprain:

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol is that David Bowie 1984 or what . Might as well.  How completely different than the Euro EPS can it get

The GFS looks like its back to trying to flug up the pattern again.  It tried it a few days ago and it didn’t take so it’s trying again.  Odds are it’s wrong.  It’s MJO mishandling I think is making it unreliable beyond day 5 

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13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS looks like its back to trying to flug up the pattern again.  It tried it a few days ago and it didn’t take so it’s trying again.  Odds are it’s wrong.  It’s MJO mishandling I think is making it unreliable beyond day 5 

I fail to see that; the gfs and ecmwf show similar mjo progression. I think its just shortwave timing (like much of the winter). The mean ridge and trough generally look favorable through the run. 

 

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

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5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Fake News Kev FNK didn't see the 987 over Hunchies head with +5 850s covering all of Emass with 35 to 40 degree temps in all of SNE so now his original Euro shows post has changed to what an AFD says. Lol can't make it up

FNK

I doubt it tracks over Hunchie's head. Op model at day 5?

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize this may offend the delicate sensibilities of those that annul that storm in a very high "undisputed" rank ... but, that storm had too many gaps to be a top 10. 

It's a top 10er in small areas of north and south short ... almost looks OES enhanced - but that's probably coincidence.  My memory of that system is that it was very highly meso-band dependent as to what got what and where... with gaps in between resulting more middling totals.  12-15" I say is middling ...risking knee-jerk vitriol from the bus stop crowd ... but, going back over the last 25 years, I think taking all top storms into consideration, is justly mid-grade outside those zones illustrated there.

Where it snowed 30" ...no argument... but bigger totals were not ubiquitous enough ... and again, owning to the banded nature of that event.  It's a good solid controversial system because hell cannot hold a candle to the fires of IMBY perspectives ... 

I agree relative to my hood at the time in Wilmington.....wasn't particularly impressed.

Cape and north shore....different story.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

In your early days on the bb you waxed poetic about that storm.  What changed?

It was a great storm, but nothing set it apart from other KUs...Last March and April 1997 were better for snowfall by several inches, and Feb 2013 was better for wind and snowfall by a bit. I'd rank it ahead of Jan 2011, but probably even behind Dec 1992.

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