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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
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As others have noted ... the American -based indices are modestly impressive moving forward over the next two weeks... Both a 'mop-ended' AO and well-correlated NAO curve have means less than 0 SD ..particularly heading into week two.  

One thing I'm less sure about is whether the AO is being handled better(worse) than typical performance of the ensemble mean (GEFs).  It is not abundantly clear whether the SSW over the last three weeks truly propagated into the tropopause sigma levels... a total evolution that is crucial in the AO modulation/correlation.  We could have a negative AO from multiple different forcing mechanisms ...and it is not abundantly clear either, how those varying sources may - if by indirection - be entangled.  

For example ... late phase 7 through phase 2 MJO waves are correlated with -AO.  However, that -AO could be defaulting, because the mid latitude cyclogensis regions are enhancing in mode during said MJO phases ... which lends to enhancing the easterly Hadely trades along the 55th parallel around the hemisphere - that makes the AO negative... But it may not be the same negative as that associated with blocking at high latitudes (necessarily)... Which, the latter is drawn up in the SSW --> -AO total model.  If there's a causal link between those two methods - admittedly, ...I may not be aware... but the papers I read seem to re-enforce either but not as an integration.  QBO is variant relative to both ...so that's a little murky.  

Either way, AO may be a wild-card as to how deeply descended the SD goes... The NAO may merely be concomitant do to their overlap... but, others have noted the EPS is looking more and more west based -NAO like ... Again, separating which is pulling which lower is troubling.  

Meanwhile, I still have no idea what the Pacific arc looks like... It should look AA ... but, seeing as the march through phase 8 was a labored  battle, regardless of model sourcing, that suggests for me that the WPO and NP/EPO arc were at those times, not favorable to +PNAP over N/A... Seeing some coherent tenor changes to ward more +PNAP however, perhaps backs us into an assumption that those are improving, as -WPO( - (NP/EPO) ) and the AA phase out there very highly correlates to +PNAP ...

So a bit sloppy ...admittedly. Governmental appropriations/shut-down is limiting some... I don't pay for EPS products ... I don't know what that organization's specific index numbers were or are heading...  

Having said all that... we are in a new pattern. The establishment of quadrature PV into SPV's ... is instructive.  We'll see if it pays dividens to winter enthusiasts... but already as we all know there is a steady diet of entities/time periods of interest looking out through D10.  

  

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We need a separate thread for this system 

Go ahead and start one. Risky 6 days out imho but the support for some type of system seems strong. So maybe worth it. Could maybe include Friday's system in there too given it's not very significant. 

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

To address Wolfie's final post in the old thread, I think people were noting how we don't always get lulls.  This is a two parter, but we don't always get those

Two seperate systems that could affect each other to be sure

He was thinking like a waa then a lull before a ccb. The confusion is that Fri is it’s own shortwave which has been talked about a while back as a little clipper type appetizer.

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Snow as you are, as of yore, as i want you to be , fire up the plows, and the gennys, keep the CF at bayyyy

take your time, 6 days out , choice is yours ...don’t be rain, take a rest (from the models) picture snowy memories 

come doused in ML warmth, soaked In gulf moisture , avoid a big NW trend as weenies want you to be 

and I swear that I don’t have a bun 

no I don’t need a bun 

no I don’t need a bun

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He was thinking like a waa then a lull before a ccb. The confusion is that Fri is it’s own shortwave which has been talked about a while back as a little clipper type appetizer.

MY comment and point originally was only that I did not buy into the snow idea all weekend form Friday to Sunday/monday.  That was my point.  Some were really hitting on the snow all weekend idea and thats what prompted my original comment. Sure sometimes it happens where it continually snows lightly or whatever, but it's very rare imo...and in my experiences.   And I didn't buy into that idea at all...and it seems to be the case.    

 

Moving on...

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

MY comment and point originally was only that I did not buy into the snow idea all weekend form Friday to Sunday/monday.  That was my point.  Some were really hitting on the snow all weekend idea and thats what prompted my original comment. Sure sometimes it happens where it continually snows lightly or whatever, but it's very rare imo...and in my experiences.   And I didn't buy into that idea at all...and it seems to be the case.    

 

Moving on...

Agreed... I don't expect much if any snow Saturday (even Friday is very tenuous) 

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

2-4" on the ICON for Friday..but close call for SEMA then cold comes in.. we snow.. brutal cold Sunday/Monday..

0c 925 to LWM on 12z Friday . Don’t see 2-4” as modeled anywhere outside elevations and parts of VT/NH and more toward 2 there

where do you see 2-4” , seriously 

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

MY comment and point originally was only that I did not buy into the snow idea all weekend form Friday to Sunday/monday.  That was my point.  Some were really hitting on the snow all weekend idea and thats what prompted my original comment. Sure sometimes it happens where it continually snows lightly or whatever, but it's very rare imo...and in my experiences.   And I didn't buy into that idea at all...and it seems to be the case.    

 

Moving on...

Dude, it’s ok. We will figure this out.

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1 minute ago, Greg said:

The 850's stay well off shore.  This would be a quick hitting wet snow with sleet on tail end. ICON

I’m talking boundary level temps on Friday day for SNE. Away from elevations and central New England .  Not 850’s of -1/-2 

I see slushy coatings much more likely as of now for pike /95 area if it’s snow

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