Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 It's not done yet... But don't forget to subtract 5"!This works bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 It's all downhill from here but at least we get to enjoy a Jan/Feb 2010 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's not done yet... But don't forget to subtract 5"! This works bro You know if this happened verbatim, you'd be mad about Nat'l Harbor lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 There may be a lot of crazy runs the next 6-8 weeks. Get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Well...models always sniff out the big ones at long leads...man...the Euro is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's not done yet... But don't forget to subtract 5"! My childhood town Takoma Park bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, caviman2201 said: You know if this happened verbatim, you'd be mad about Nat'l Harbor lol Nope. After Jan 2016 where I danced on the razor thin line with the heavies I'll gladly cheer on a DC jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 How does 44 inches fall east of DC but only 32 in Leesburg? I toss this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Nope. After Jan 2016 where I danced on the razor thin line with the heavies I'll gladly cheer on a DC jack. That was directed at Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well...models always sniff out the big ones at long leads...man...the Euro is ridiculous It's straight out of the Jan/Feb 2010 playbook. Nice cold event followed up by a destruction 5-6 days later. I think a big storm is in the cards. Overwhelming support from ops and ens that a big storm is going to form. Of course equal odds with rain/snow in our area but it's really fun seeing monster storms like this during a nino w/ blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Best part is the temperatures. It's 10 degrees while it's dumping 2-3"/hr. The Day After Tomorrow type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's straight out of the Jan/Feb 2010 playbook. Nice cold event followed up by a destruction 5-6 days later. I think a big storm is in the cards. Overwhelming support from ops and ens that a big storm is going to form. Of course equal odds with rain/snow in our area but it's really fun seeing monster storms like this during a nino w/ blocking. To think this could happen and there are MORE storms after this on the way is OMG !! Mail boxes will dissapear and small animals. Seriously though, you have to think there is a decent chance we go sub zero sometime in the next few weeks too. Too many storms , too much arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Best part is the temperatures. It's 10 degrees while it's dumping 2-3"/hr. The Day After Tomorrow type stuff. Just WOW! I am saving these panels. These belong in the digital snow panels hall of fame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Where did snowstorm5921 go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Big ones are sniffed out early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 GFS looks like it's showing some activity too in the 10-12 day period, I know it's not a reliable timeframe but good to see both major models pointing out the possibility of heavy snow in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where did snowstorm5921 go? The tpv in central canada called and told him to read more and post less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where did snowstorm5921 go? Said the run was awesome. Pay attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where did snowstorm5921 go? To get his milk, bread and toilet paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The tpv in central canada called and told him to read more and post less 2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Said the run was awesome. Pay attention tpv needs to say it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 This event will likely come down to if we can get the northern branch shortwave/ULL out ahead of the main shortwave. Get the HP to build in behind it. This would easily cut if the timing is off. I do think this is the best shot at the “big one” this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Would definitely be your long awaited revenge on Richmond for 12/9/18! We'd be 22 and sleeting while you get 42 inches. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: This event will likely come down to if we can get the northern branch shortwave/ULL out ahead of the main shortwave. Get the HP to build in behind it. This would easily cut if the timing is off. I do think this is the best shot at the “big one” this winter. I think we will have multiple chances at the "big one" over the next 4-6 weeks...not saying we score each time but the advertised pattern rivals 09/10 for the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Reality check on the EPS. Majority are all or mostly rain for d8-10. Not surprising and definitely enough medium to large big hits to keep it very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I think we will have multiple chances at the "big one" over the next 4-6 weeks...not saying we score each time but the advertised pattern rivals 09/10 for the mid atlantic. Yeah not sure how one can say this looks like our best shot at the big one. On paper it actually doesn't. That doesn't matter though because we have gone from complete shutout to a transitioning pattern that seems to want to snow now. And it's still in its infancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's not done yet... But don't forget to subtract 5"! Meh the rich get richer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 43 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Best part is the temperatures. It's 10 degrees while it's dumping 2-3"/hr. The Day After Tomorrow type stuff. What kind of ratios would those temps yield? Higher than the standard 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The ECM shift to a southern track is plausible, and the GFS concept of chain of lows along a front fails to separate the 19th and 21st energy peaks from my research point of view, so if I blend a better separated GFS with this ECM track, I think you are in the hunt for the jackpot that seems inevitable with the 21st energy peak. More chance of it shifting back north than any further south, it is a finely tuned sports car low that the ECM advertises, and 15-30" certainly in its specs, would toss the 40" though, this is not 1888 and western CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Reality check on the EPS. Majority are all or mostly rain for d8-10. Not surprising and definitely enough medium to large big hits to keep it very interesting. Seems like it's gonna be harder to get a big one before the pattern really gets going, isn't it? Seems like it's safe to assume cutter unless we see more frozen outcomes depicted by Monday or something...but I guess I'll keep one eye on it, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 How is it 10 degrees and dumping snow at epic rates at the same time that there are rain concerns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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