nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nice signal I’d say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 this might be the most insulting weather map ive ever seen 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 GFS also has the storm... but as a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, yoda said: GFS also has the storm... but as a cutter not meteorological possible in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, yoda said: GFS also has the storm... but as a cutter Yeah. I noticed that. Still a long ways to go. But that is one hell of a monster storm on GFS. Entire east coast from Maine to Florida is in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ask and ye shall receive Honestly what's even more impressive than the few high-end HECS runs is the huge number of pinks. From a quick glance it looks like they're in the majority, which really is remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 This weekend’s storm started as a cutter to basically northern MN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 the problem with 00z GFS is it shows a +NAO and does not agree with its ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: the problem with 00z GFS is it shows a +NAO and does not agree with its ensembles Ensembles are better beyond 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: This weekend’s storm started as a cutter to basically northern MN. lol so true. here is GFS 6 days ago for our weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Yea, I'd say this is a pretty good ens storm signal for 10 days out. Long lead big storm of some sort on top 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I'd say this is a pretty good ens storm signal for 10 days out. Long lead big storm of some sort on top Whoa...if this is still showing up in 2-3 days...how long before we can say "INCOMING!"? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Yea, I'd say this is a pretty good ens storm signal for 10 days out. Long lead big storm of some sort on topGood signal for rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Man...has the jan 20 looks awful all of the sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Jan 20...Rain but after that...we start cranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ji said: Jan 20...Rain but after that...we start cranking Pretty sure we heard this once or twice already this season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 54 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Horrible trends for the 1/20 storm overnight. Soon we’ll be in February lol. A PV in central Canada is never good for east coast snow. The signal is very strong for this date as you know and many ensemble members have positions off shore and well as inland. Personally I look to see trends that lessen the cutter outcomes. Some may even be southern lows and gradient moving storms. Example in some ensembles DC is modeled to get more snow than Philly, Wilmington and Eastern Long island. One very evident take away at this lead looking at the GFS and GEFS ensembles at day 10 - a large portion of the US is going to have snow cover put down in the next 10 days. Looks like 2/3 or more of the US with snow cover , deep winter coming with that look. Opens the door to a possible severe cold air outbreak near month's end, or prior. Lastly keep in mind the pattern continues to improve beyond the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Frankly I thought we were past interim records for the date, but I was wrong. Another record today, been a constant stream of records the last 10 days almost every day. ####------------------------------------ Polar vortex status ------------------------------------### The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -9.1 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -8.4 m/s 2004 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 66.8 m/s 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Horrible trends for the 1/20 storm overnight. Soon we’ll be in February lol. A PV in central Canada is never good for east coast snow. The fact that you are not 5-posted or banned is amazing to me. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 24 minutes ago, frd said: Frankly I thought we were past interim records for the date, but I was wrong. Another record today, been a constant stream of records the last 10 days almost every day. Is there a record for most records broken in a period of time? - this is a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Horrible trends for the 1/20 storm overnight. Soon we’ll be in February lol. A PV in central Canada is never good for east coast snow. Just horrific.... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: The fact that you are not 5-posted or banned is amazing to me. I suggested this after he made his fifth post. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The symmetry, phase, and amplitude of this hemispheric long wave pattern..its just a remarkable look. Deep winter for eastern US. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: Man...has the jan 20 looks awful all of the sudden. 9 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 06z gefs took a nice step toward a coastal solution for the 20th storm. EPS is taking a west track with a jump to the coast at about our lat...but also has a nice banana high over top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 58 minutes ago, frd said: The signal is very strong for this date as you know and many ensemble members have positions off shore and well as inland. Personally I look to see trends that lessen the cutter outcomes. Some may even be southern lows and gradient moving storms. Example in some ensembles DC is modeled to get more snow than Philly, Wilmington and Eastern Long island. One very evident take away at this lead looking at the GFS and GEFS ensembles at day 10 - a large portion of the US is going to have snow cover put down in the next 10 days. Looks like 2/3 or more of the US with snow cover , deep winter coming with that look. Opens the door to a possible severe cold air outbreak near month's end, or prior. Lastly keep in mind the pattern continues to improve beyond the 20th. He is just trolling. There is a lot of variance for day 10 right now, as there should be at that range. The pattern continues to evolve better and better and if we get the blocking centered over Greenland towards February we should have an extended window of opportunity. His "its almost February" comment is laughable. Yea after January 20 we have 10 more days of PRIME CLIMO before we get to OUR SNOWIEST MONTH... yep definitely a reason to panic there. He is a joke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I suggested this after he made his fifth post. I remember, you NAILED that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I remember, you NAILED that one! Yes I’m such a bad poster but everyone is looking at 0” of snow the last 2 months...not sure why everyone is acting like we’re guaranteed to get slammed going forward. GFS and Euro are in good agreement of the 20th being a cutter, and why go against persistence? A PV in central Canada is a bad look for east coast snow, period. It forces early phases. Hope it’s wrong but i wouldn’t be surprised to see ensembles shift in that direction if that PV placement is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 you're right we should just cancel winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Yes I’m such a bad poster but everyone is looking at 0” of snow the last 2 months...not sure why everyone is acting like we’re guaranteed to get slammed going forward. GFS and Euro are in good agreement of the 20th being a cutter, and why go against persistence? A PV in central Canada is a bad look for east coast snow, period. It forces early phases. Hope it’s wrong but i wouldn’t be surprised to see ensembles shift in that direction if that PV placement is correct. Yes, if you dissect the meteorological evidence you presented in this post aside from the false claims, you are right. However, there is really no agreement on the storm coming on the 20th amongst the ensembles or on a lot of the operational models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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