Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: HONKHONKHONKWOOFWOOFHONKWOOFHONK Yall crackin' me up on here, lololol But yeah, HONK is right (imagine those clown maps!) That seems to be the growing chorus of even the more conservative mets...could get very interesting if we keep seeing this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 The 12z gfs op is the biggest trease ever. So much smoke. So little fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS is an eye opener. Pretty much shows the potential in the extended. With not one, nor 2, but 3 chances in a period of 5 days. Details at this range are unimportant just that the fact it is showing all this potential is. One comment though. Have a feeling that the two systems we see, one on the 20th and the one that follows up quickly will in fact end up morphing into one on subsequent runs of the GFS if we see no major deviations on the pattern. If that is the case then we probably see a good setup for what right now is the 3rd system. Think the fun is just starting people. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 You can consider the pros and cons here with this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 12z gfs op is the biggest trease ever. So much smoke. So little fire. Barely misses the HECS developing. It's just one run of the Op, but illustrative to the potential of the pattern late next week and beyond. I still think you and I would take what it's offering for the 20th verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Barely misses the HECS developing. It's just one run of the Op, but illustrative to the potential of the pattern late next week and beyond. I still think you and I would take what it's offering for the 20th verbatim I wasn't really upset just it was soooo close to an epic run and flirted with several events and managed to just mostly tease. It will be different in 6 hours anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GFS is an eye opener. Pretty much shows the potential in the extended. With not one, nor 2, but 3 chances in a period of 5 days. Details at this range are unimportant just that the fact it is showing all this potential is. One comment though. Have a feeling that the two systems we see, one on the 20th and the one that follows up quickly will in fact end up morphing into one on subsequent runs of the GFS if we see no major deviations on the pattern. If that is the case then we probably see a good setup for what right now is the 3rd system. Think the fun is just starting people. Buckle up. We don't want too much consolidated or the whole thing could cut west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wasn't really upset just it was soooo close to an epic run and flirted with several events and managed to just mostly tease. It will be different in 6 hours anyways. Epic cold near by as well. 2 meter temps - 50 degrees F. below Zero in SE Canada. Wow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 @psuhoffman we were discussing this here a couple weeks ago. Good post by John. earthlight Posted 1 minute ago 3 minutes ago, uncle w said: is the MJO the boss of bosses or can other influences over come the MJO in a bad faze?... The MJO is a major pattern driver when it is amplified or, often times, when the hemispheric wave guide does not have any other larger-scale forcings acting upon it. When the MJO goes into the COD, there are several other forces that can act upon or guide the weather pattern. Additionally, the MJO forecasts specifically on the RMM plots being referenced have been absolutely awful. The ECMWF EPS, in particular, has been bad - indiciating this time last week that the MJO would die out in Phase 6 and never approach Phase 8. There is much more going on that will help drive and guide convection in the tropical pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We don't want too much consolidated or the whole thing could cut west. Not so sure when I see this over top. But those are the details that get worked out closer in time. Just seeing the favorable setup and all the potential is all I care about right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Long range looks weak after the Jan 19-22 window. Need to cash in before we head cold/dry then signs of the mean trof redeveloping back out west as epo ridge gets displaced westward and the nao pops back into positive territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, frd said: @psuhoffman we were discussing this here a couple weeks ago. Good post by John. earthlight Posted 1 minute ago 3 minutes ago, uncle w said: is the MJO the boss of bosses or can other influences over come the MJO in a bad faze?... The MJO is a major pattern driver when it is amplified or, often times, when the hemispheric wave guide does not have any other larger-scale forcings acting upon it. When the MJO goes into the COD, there are several other forces that can act upon or guide the weather pattern. Additionally, the MJO forecasts specifically on the RMM plots being referenced have been absolutely awful. The ECMWF EPS, in particular, has been bad - indiciating this time last week that the MJO would die out in Phase 6 and never approach Phase 8. There is much more going on that will help drive and guide convection in the tropical pacific. Yea he pretty much confirmed what we were saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Long range looks weak after the Jan 19-22 window. Need to cash in before we head cold/dry then signs of the mean trof redeveloping back out west as epo ridge gets displaced westward and the nao pops back into positive territory. Really don't see this myself. What you describe is pretty much a typical response for after a big storm and it looks to me as if the pattern is quickly rebooting after the temporary relax. But op run. Day 10+ so really doesn't matter how we see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Long range looks weak after the Jan 19-22 window. Need to cash in before we head cold/dry then signs of the mean trof redeveloping back out west as epo ridge gets displaced westward and the nao pops back into positive territory. Good if that one fails bring on early spring and shoot this dead horse winter 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Really don't see this myself. What you describe is pretty much a typical response for after a big storm and it looks to me as if the pattern is quickly rebooting after the temporary relax. But op run. Day 10+ so really doesn't matter how we see it. Very true showme, not to mention we will see continued adjustments to the models with the Pac, and expect future blocking to be underdone, as effects from the SSWE are coming into view. There is a lag effect as you know. Some folks are expressing concerns about the MJO, based on the way the models are handling it, I feel it does not really warrant concern at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not so sure when I see this over top. But those are the details that get worked out closer in time. Just seeing the favorable setup and all the potential is all I care about right now. There isn't anything locking that in per say though... the pattern will have cold available due to a -AO and a favorable PNA/EPO combo...but the NAO around that period (while ok isn't really a true NAO block yet....I do think its coming later) and so if you consolidate too much energy into one system and dump the whole trough into the central US we could end up with a big bombed out cutter. Given the look of the pattern...if we want a lot of snow, I would prefer a train of weaker (not weak) storms running the boundary. It could work if the trough axis is perfect but it could also cut inland as many major full latitude trough bombed out storms do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I really like the GEFS showing the broad conus trough and lower heights across SoCal. This is much better than the amplified and more narrow eastern trough. These height and pressure panels look great. Sprawling highs to the north. Active southern stream undercutting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I really like the GEFS showing the broad conus trough and lower heights across SoCal. This is much better than the amplified and more narrow eastern trough. These height and pressure panels look great. Sprawling highs to the north. Active southern stream undercutting. That right there might be the best "general" long range look we have had yet for snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I really like the GEFS showing the broad conus trough and lower heights across SoCal. This is much better than the amplified and more narrow eastern trough. These height and pressure panels look great. Sprawling highs to the north. Active southern stream undercutting. That is one heck of a broad strung out trof basically coast to coast. Yeah I guess we can hope to cash in on the usual incremental system to hopefully pad totals. Maybe if this general look continues when the extreme setup begins to pull back we will score on something bigger in the form of a SWFE with really good overrunning or something along those lines. I really think any wound up system is going to mess us up still either cutting or being just too far off the coast. The Jan 19-22 looks decent but I honestly would rather not see a massive wound up system based solely on seasonal history so far tho if u r hoping to hit the jackpot I guess u roll the dice. I would take the look Bob posted with sprawling high and strung out waves giving several minor threats but that's just me. I think those types are our best chances this season until things relax later in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That right there might be the best "general" long range look we have had yet for snow Yea, that height/pressure pattern is good even with a west track. CAD/WAA/dryslot or zr works too. IMO- pure rain solutions are the least likely outcome of precip events going forward until further notice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, that height/pressure pattern is good even with a west track. CAD/WAA/dryslot or zr works too. IMO- pure rain solutions are the least likely outcome of precip events going forward until further notice. Completely agree. Nothing in that GEFS run makes me think we have even a brief shutdown period in the next 2 weeks and likely beyond. Looks to me like we have 1. This weekend 2. Small chance of a weak wave with mixed precip next week, but it probably gets sheared out. 3. Active busy pattern from the 19th-23rd at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That is one heck of a broad strung out trof basically coast to coast. Yeah I guess we can hope to cash in on the usual incremental system to hopefully pad totals. Maybe if this general look continues when the extreme setup begins to pull back we will score on something bigger in the form of a SWFE with really good overrunning or something along those lines. I really think any wound up system is going to mess us up still either cutting or being just too far off the coast. The Jan 19-22 looks decent but I honestly would rather not see a massive wound up system based solely on seasonal history so far tho if u r hoping to hit the jackpot I guess u roll the dice. I would take the look Bob posted with sprawling high and strung out waves giving several minor threats but that's just me. I think those types are our best chances this season until things relax later in Feb. I honestly don't know what you are looking at with your assessment. If we get an over amplified trough we COULD have a cutter...or something COULD go OTS but you were talking about the NAO going positive and the trough in the west and I see nothing except an oddball op run at range showing anything like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Completely agree. Nothing in that GEFS run makes me think we have even a brief shutdown period in the next 2 weeks and likely beyond. Looks to me like we have 1. This weekend 2. Small chance of a weak wave with mixed precip next week, but it probably gets sheared out. 3. Active busy pattern from the 19th-23rd at least. EPS isn't as good. Has some ridging to our NE in the atl and a pos tilt trough on the means. Still has the height sag in the SW but isn't as ripe as the GEFS. Overall though we're moving right into a pattern that can work and we're in prime climo. I'd be surprised if we don't get at least 1 more event in Jan after this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I honestly don't know what you are looking at with your assessment. If we get an over amplified trough we COULD have a cutter...or something COULD go OTS but you were talking about the NAO going positive and the trough in the west and I see nothing except an oddball op run at range showing anything like that. GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS I don't see where the nao is positive on the gefs or the trough out west other then maybe a very brief period of a day or so when a system crashes but then it undercuts so that's not the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Euro looks pretty bad again in the Pacific by day 10...another suppressed system verbatim. But not going to get anything worthwhile with that Pacific look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Euro looks pretty bad again in the Pacific by day 10...another suppressed system verbatim. But not going to get anything worthwhile with that Pacific look. Euro at 240 takes it off the Southeast coast , frigid in SE Canada with 480 thickness. No turn up the coast. Others with better access can give more feedback. A lot can change. For me with this weekend I am standing at a likely 0 and 2, I don't want to enter the last week of Jan. at 0 and 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Let's not let anxiety cloud the potential here...my goodness. But I get it, though...many of us haven't shoveled since 2016...So now there's increasing potential, and we're already fearing the worst after one run of something 10 days out, smh C'mon guys... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: Euro at 240 takes it off the Southeast coast , frigid in SE Canada with 480 thickness. No turn up the coast. Others with better access can give more feedback. A lot can change. For me with this weekend I am standing at a likely 0 and 2, I don't want to enter the last week of Jan. at 0 and 3. A system crashes into the PAC nw and that does interfere with the system in the east day 10. But that's a temporary issue and it's on one op day 10. It's not something worth worrying about. Most guidance suggests too amped is as likely as not. Anyways he seems like a troll and I give his posts as much weight as I do chuck. I would suggest ignoring him. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Feels like we are in the midst of the pattern change...wouldn't there be quite a bit of volatility for a minute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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