North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 GFS was better at picking up timing of pattern change than Euro was, frankly, from quite a ways out in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18z GFS is a parade of big (mostly rain) storms in the long range. Gonna get busy in here starting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18z gefs is a weenie fantasy run. Loop the NH h5 panels. Pac wave train undercutting the epo or pna ridge and the tpv displaced in canada suppressing heights in the conus. 3 pac shortwaves affect us in 6 days. Matches the ens showing multiple hits. This may be the best January pattern i've ever seen if flow remains active. Rain is obviously a risk with any of them but give us 3 legit shots in a week and we're prob booking another event. Maybe more than one... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: 18z GFS is a parade of big (mostly rain) storms in the long range. Gonna get busy in here starting next week. Lol. We posted at the exact same time. Like minds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. We posted at the exact same time. Like minds You guys seem pretty excited about the parade of "big (mostly rain)" storms. Are you expecting the possibilities for frozen to improve as we get closer, and if so, why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, cbmclean said: You guys seem pretty excited about the parade of "big (mostly rain)" storms. Are you expecting the possibilities for frozen to improve as we get closer, and if so, why? Even in the best patterns storms can still cut west or mix but many boxes are getting checked off to feel good about snow chances. Most importantly the ao and nao are going negative. Those are the 2 most important teleconnections and having them both negative is a holy grail for the mid atlantic. Here's the short list of why i think this period is the real deal: Negative ao/nao/epo and positive pna is the ultimate combo Nino climo favors snowfall here in the second half of winter Jan/Feb are prime climo for snowfall in any year Pacific wave train looks very active Southern stream has been active all season Below to much below normal temps are forecasted in our source region There are no guarantees for snowfall...ever but this is the best looking pattern since 09-10. And it couldnt be happening at a better time. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Below to much below normal temps are forecasted in our source region By this do you mean the Northwest Territories and/or Yukon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: By this do you mean the Northwest Territories and/or Yukon? Central Canada. Even normal temps there is good this time of year. Long range guidance has almost the entire country below normal though. Check out the 5 day mean d11-15. This is a very strong (and impressive) signal. We generally dont want or need true arctic air. If you look back through history, arctic outbreaks dont usually coincide with snowfall. Your area probably does better with arctic outbreaks though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 18z GFS is a parade of big (mostly rain) storms in the long range. Gonna get busy in here starting next week. Looping the h500 panels, hours 222-384 looked really familiar. Grabbed the Kocin book and looked again at January 21-27, 1987. Pretty close match to 18Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 87 has definitely been an analog that’s been popping up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There are no guarantees for snowfall...ever but this is the best looking pattern since 09-10. And it couldnt be happening at a better time. Great checklist, and if we do indeed get my three favorites in your list, a - AO , - NAO and a +PNA snow over rain should rule 3 out of 4 times. And wow, looking a bit further down at your GEFS Jan 24 temp anomaly in NA, cold rules. I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: You guys seem pretty excited about the parade of "big (mostly rain)" storms. Are you expecting the possibilities for frozen to improve as we get closer, and if so, why? Once you get outside of 7 days it's best to exclusively rely on ensemble guidance and not ops. 18z gfs op did have a lot of long range rainstorms but they were all close to snowstorms. Remember, this weekend's event was raimstorm on all ops at d10. Ensembles were hinting that there was a chance of snow though and the signal on the ensembles kept getting stronger and suddenly the ops all flipped to snow. The euro had an approaching rainstorm day 10 as did the 18z gfs. However, if you look at the ensemble mslp panel for the same timeframe it shows that a snowstorm track is favored. D10+ is just speculation and it could be anything including sunny but this looks pretty good for 10 day leads in both our areas 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z FV3 looks great for Jan 23-24 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 00z CMC has @showmethesnow storm on the 20th as the run ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 CMC 240 looks like it could be the best storm of our lives lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: CMC 240 looks like it could be the best storm of our lives lol Looks like there is a banana high going on too... one in W MN and one in E Quebec... both around 1040 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Bob posted it in the other thread... but 18z GEFS were on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 there is a ticking timebomb thing happening between Jan 20 and Jan 33rd 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS has a big storm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: there is a ticking timebomb thing happening between Jan 20 and Jan 33rd The big ones are sniffed out early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The big ones are sniffed out early remember in Mid Dec when the weeklies called for a pattern change in early January(week 3 lol)? Its Early Jan---it snowed today...more snow on the weekend and a bunch of blizzards on the horizon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The big ones are sniffed out early I remember posting about the D15 EPS signal last week for that time period...it had an usually strong signal on the MSLP maps for that far out. Obviously don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but somewhere along the EC there’s going to be a significant winter event during that time period. Also, amazing what blocking can do to help the models hone in on periods of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: CMC 240 looks like it could be the best storm of our lives lol Worth archiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 The mother of all cold shots at the end of the GFS run. Almost the entire CONUS well below normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Euro d10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: Euro d10 Pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 We saw a weakening of the signal on the last few runs of the EPS for the system I have high hopes for (Jan 20-22). But it looks as if the overnight run is once again strengthening the signal. Think that weakening we saw was nothing more then the EPS having issues with differentiating between the different systems we see through the extended which looks to be a very active period of time. If this is in fact the case, with this system now broaching the 10 day period we should hopefully see that signal steadily strengthen as the EPS should be better able to separate it out of mix. Still very high on the potential with this system (odds of happening and KU potential) as well think the period after is well worth watching as well. In fact the EPS is starting to once again throw up a fairly good signal for the end of the run (day 15). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 so this is what our long awaited historical pattern change gets us? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: so this is what our long awaited historical pattern change gets us? That's a pretty nice rainstorm on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: so this is what our long awaited historical pattern change gets us? JI, for the love of God. Quit throwing up op runs at range let alone at day 16. You are smarter then this. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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