January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, frd said:

Thoughts on the SOI ? 

I like to see the 30 day average move to negative, but that might be a reach. 

Someone mentioned a rise up and then back down, also Don S. provided some great stats on this recently.  

I would think we see it turn back down.   

SOI values for 8 Jan, 2019
Average SOI for last 30 days	5.05
Average SOI for last 90 days	3.98
Daily contribution to SOI calculation	0.15

 

The SOI is calculated by the difference between pressure at Tahiti and Darwin.  (I know you know this just laying it out there for everyone).  A negative SOI is when the Pressure is higher at Darwin than Tahiti.  A daily value is less useful then a longer term average because local pressure features can cause changes in the daily values but in general we want to see pressures lower in the central Pacific then near Darwin.  That is because forcing near Darwin correlates to the warm phases of the MJO and a ridge here.  Forcing out near Tahiti correlates to colder.  This is why a central pacific based nino is good for us.  (really simplifying it here but in general that's the thing) 

At the moment there is a low pressure system right near Darwin so that would account for the daily spike in the SOI.  However there are still lower pressures in the Pacific.  It looks like it may remain around neutral for the next few days then turn negative again.  Pressures look pretty low at both locations actually and that might be a wash.  So long as the pressures aren't lower to the west I would think the convection and forcing in the ideal locations for us should win out.  Not concerned by a daily value near 0.  Just don't want to see another spike up into very positive territory.  The negative spike and the MJO into 8 did its job and the pattern is now cascading towards what we want.  So long as nothing bad shows up the dominoes should continue to fall in our favor.  Ambiguous inst a bad thing when the other factors are lined up in our favor.  Just keep those things out of our way.  

[frd]

Even though this is only a model simulation, not really liking the look of this. Cold yes, snow ??  

The look I dont like is towards the end. 

Also,of note is the PAC. I see some retrogression, but then it stops and reverses,  or is it me? 

Anybody want to chime in. 

  

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Even though this is only a model simulation, not really liking the look of this. Cold yes, snow ??  

The look I dont like is towards the end. 

Also,of note is the PAC. I see some retrogression, but then it stops and reverses,  or is it me? 

Anybody want to chime in. 

  

 

Looks cold, windy, and dry to me.  Acceptable if you own a snowmaker.

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, frd said:

Even though this is only a model simulation, not really liking the look of this. Cold yes, snow ??  

The look I dont like is towards the end. 

Also,of note is the PAC. I see some retrogression, but then it stops and reverses,  or is it me? 

Anybody want to chime in. 

  

 

Its only one model run. I haven't seen that progression on any other runs, unless I am missing something. It could happen- we see that modeled from time to time(dropping the TPV that far south) but it doesn't often verify. In short, I wouldn't look for things to worry over. The upcoming pattern as depicted on the ens means looks great.

[frd]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its only one model run. I haven't seen that progression on any other runs, unless I am missing something. It could happen- we see that modeled from time to time(dropping the TPV that far south) but it doesn't often verify. In short, I wouldn't look for things to worry over. The upcoming pattern as depicted on the ens means looks great.

Agreed. Its one random simulation in an atmosphere of chaos.  

[MD Snow]

I would have probably been banned or five posted if I would have told you we'd be where we are now last Tuesday. I don't buy any ensemble outside of 10 days, period. Just me. 

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, poolz1 said:

A good example of too much of a good thing....Extreme 

Thing is that is really close to a ridiculously good pattern for us. Move that blocking a little bit north and we are the ones getting blasted. It is way too early to know exactly where that blocking will set up. And it will move around a little as well. When it relaxes we get smoked as well.  If I have my choice of that pattern or the hell we have been sitting in the past six weeks I am taking that every single time.

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, frd said:

Thoughts on the SOI ? 

I like to see the 30 day average move to negative, but that might be a reach. 

Someone mentioned a rise up and then back down, also Don S. provided some great stats on this recently.  

I would think we see it turn back down.   

SOI values for 8 Jan, 2019
Average SOI for last 30 days	5.05
Average SOI for last 90 days	3.98
Daily contribution to SOI calculation	0.15

 

more on this...

These are days 1-5, 6-10, and 11-16 on the GEFS.  The euro seems to agree in general on this progression.

I added where (in general) we want lower pressure and convection and where we do not.  You can see the next 5 days are pretty ambiguous with normal to slightly below pressures in both areas.  So we are pobably looking at a near neutral SOI over the next 5 days.

Days 6-10 become more favorable, pressures are still lower then I would like north of Australia where ideally we would want high pressure but the lower pressures and main area of tropical forcing is definitely out in the central PAC where we want it.  This looks like a slightly negative SOI

Then days 12-16 the SOI would tank.  This is a severely negative SOI look and it coincides with the start of our extreme pattern.  

So I am not worried right now about the current neutral SOI after the recent crash so long as we don't see a reversion to having the tropical forcing in the wrong locations over a long period.  This looks to be temporary before another crash.  

 

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, Mdecoy said:

The 06Z GFS is hilarious, suppression city with the next few storms. Richmond gets feets and feets while DC smokes cirrus.

You can probably ease up on the hyperbole.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So I am not worried right now about the current neutral SOI after the recent crash so long as we don't see a reversion to having the tropical forcing in the wrong locations over a long period.  This looks to be temporary before another crash.  

 

Thats a great read psu. I enjoyed reading that.

Yes,  a big SOI drop like that would herald the anticipated lock in of the pattern change.  

JB states a drop like that is a cattle prog to the atmosphere. Sorry to bring up JB  :-  ( he has stated that before,  I did not watch him today )  

-   at least no Becky referecne :-)

[frd]

12 hours ago, EasternLI said:

My apologies for dropping in on you fine folks. As far as the bolded is concerned. According to the solar cycle prediction charts which were actually updated last month, it looks like it's going to be a while still before we get to the bottom. I like your posts @frd so I thought this would interest you.

I admit this is news to me, and holy cow we keep dropping until 2021 !   We seem to drop further down compared to the previous solar cycle.  Thanks for posting this.    

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

I admit this is news to me, and holy cow we keep dropping until 2021 !   We seem to drop further down compared to the previous solar cycle.  Thanks for posting this.    

 

With this...is it unreasonable to think that, even in the somewhat unlucky event that were to manage to totally whiff this year, we oughta have our shot next winter?

[showmethesnow]

50 minutes ago, frd said:

Even though this is only a model simulation, not really liking the look of this. Cold yes, snow ??  

The look I dont like is towards the end. 

Also,of note is the PAC. I see some retrogression, but then it stops and reverses,  or is it me? 

Anybody want to chime in. 

  

 

Really think you are worrying about this too much. We should be fine with the pv to the east of the Hudson Bay as depicted now especially if we are seeing push back from the southern Stream. Only if we see that pv drop below the Hudson Bay latitude towards the eastern lakes or the NE would I start becoming seriously concerned. And what looks like suppression that MD Snow keeps bringing up that starts at 300 hr? That looks like it is nothing more then the trough deepening in response to a fairly strong signal for a storm running up the coast. That's a good thing and is a possible signal for a big storm through that period (the time period I keep hitting on, 20-22 ) . Honestly, we should be fine with what this run depicts. Now if we see the pv coming in farther and farther south in future runs, then yeah get concerned.

[Bob Chill]

I'll worry about suppression when it sets up in real time. It's possible but we're moving towards a period that is night and day better than where we've been. 

6z gefs h5 spread paints a fine picture to me. A little bit of everything in the mix. Far from a congrats NC lock pattern. 

[87storms]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll worry about suppression when it sets up in real time. It's possible but we're moving towards a period that is night and day better than where we've been. 

6z gefs h5 spread paints a fine picture to me. A little bit of everything in the mix. Far from a congrats NC lock pattern. 

agreed, even a good pattern doesn't mean we get every storm, as we all know.  lots of rust showing up in this thread, too.  since when did we start getting heavily invested in storms 6-7 days out?  the 500 pattern even during the hits for next weekend was a little squashy.  still think this could turn into a moderate event, but it's too early to know.  best thing to do at this point is track the pattern change because the one we've been in has sucked for most of the east coast.  well, for snow at least.  i've actually kinda enjoyed not having snow covered courts/trails for the time being, though i think i'm finally ready for some colorado-style powder.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

agreed, even a good pattern doesn't mean we get every storm, as we all know.  lots of rust showing up in this thread, too.  since when did we start getting heavily invested in storms 6-7 days out?  the 500 pattern even during the hits for next weekend was a little squashy.  still think this could turn into a moderate event, but it's too early to know.  best thing to do at this point is track the pattern change because the one we've been in has sucked for most of the east coast.  well, for snow at least.  i've actually kinda enjoyed not having snow covered courts/trails for the time being, though i think i'm finally ready for some colorado-style powder.

Even if the PV gets blocked into SE Canada it's still going to wobble around. Atmosphere is never static. If it happens we'll deal with it. Worrying about it d10+ is premature to put it lightly. I mean how often do we get into a stable hammer to SC pattern? Like once every 20-30 years?

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Even if the PV gets blocked into SE Canada it's still going to wobble around. Atmosphere is never static. If it happens we'll deal with it. Worrying about it d10+ is premature to put it lightly. I mean how often do we get into a stable hammer to SC pattern? Like once every 20-30 years?

Good point. We get that pv moving around some and you get an ebb and flow within the pattern underneath. Some of our bigger storms have occurred as the pv has relaxed and withdrawn as it moves around. 

[frd]

A slow step down with the NAO.

You can see even here it is not there yet at hour 210.

but the -AO is ready to drop soon, maybe to - 3 SD  and you can see the outcomes here.  

Seems early Feb possibly, but wow to the North. 

Also, this is just the beginning too and all the pieces coming together. 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

@frd @showmethesnow @Bob Chill 

Regarding the long range pattern setting up, I was thinking about the discussion the other day regarding to PV or not to PV and I realized we might just be describing things differently.  I hate to quote my arch nemesis but yesterday JB was going on about needing to get rid of the PV over Canada.  (was he reading here again! LOL)  I decided to use the panel of the EPS that was showme had up earlier.

First of all this is NOT a bad pattern, we can work with this, and we could get a snowstorm from this, but that PV there is less than ideal.  

But what we want is to get it from this....

To this....

The PV there isn't the worst thing, there are higher heights under it so there would be a tendency to get higher pressure in southern Canada to our north BUT the westerly flow under that PV will cut off any true cold from getting into the CONUS so during peak climo we can work with that, especially with ideal high locations, but its not going to be a sustained cold look and any storm with a less then perfect high will have temperature issues.  Ideally we would want to see that PV weaken and then either elongate or split with a weaker vortex somewhere in central canada with a stronger piece taking up shop in the 50/50 space.  Ideally the blocking would retrograde and end up almost where the PV is now.  A strong PV like that will be tighter wound and thus more likely to enhance the jet around it making the flow more progressive.  If it weakens that is when we can get it to split and elongate and that is when you can get the perfect setup where parts of it can dig into the trough to phase and parts can break off into the 50/50 and get stuck under the blocking.  So when I say we "dont want a PV" I don't mean we dont want any vortices up there at all...but not a strong one.  When I hear PV I think of the "big blue ball".  Ideally we want red all across Canada with weak very weak vortices that do not get in the way of the buckling and amplification of the trough we need for a big storm.

The worst thing would be if the PV remains strong and drops down right on top of us.  That is cold/dry and kiss any big storms goodbye.  If it remains strong and drops down to our west we can get progressive waves along the east coast but any significant storms would be unlikely.  But cold with some snow isnt the worst.  Ideally we want it to weaken and either get fully squeezed into the 50/50 area or split with the weaker part remaining over Canada.  

I think when people say "the PV is on the other side" it scares some because we are not used to having both PNA/EPO and NAO help lately.  If we have a hostile NAO or EPO then having no strong PV up in canada is a death sentence.  Without blocking, if there is no PV there to suppress the pattern the whole NAM will be flooded with warmth and we end up with a total evacuation of cold from our side.  That is not what would happen with a -nao, and a favorable combo of the pna or epo.  In that case we want high pressure all over canada and home grown cold.  Nothing to interfere with the slowing and amplifying of the jet in the east we want for a big storm.  

It looks like that is where we are headed on the super long range guidance (CFS/Euro weeklies) in February.  But we might have to get through a week or so where we have a severely displaced PV first before it weakens.  So long as the blocking holds long enough we would get a better look on the other side of that.  Our big storm chances might be before and after that period.  During that period if the PV sets up in a less hostile location we could be in line for waves and it doesn't take that much qpf to get a nice storm when its that cold.  Even a nice clipper can do it.  So I am not saying a shutout, and I am not worrying about it until its reality, but the guidance does look kind of suppressive in the Jan 22 on period right now.   That could obviously change, and any relaxation puts us in perfect spot and if the blocking holds we would get a window as the PV weakens as it will being so removed from the pole.  

All in all its a great look, but yea there will be times in that pattern where it might be too much of a good thing, but if blocking sets up and runs the table through February I highly doubt the PV sets up over the Lakes and squashes everything the rest of the winter.  That would be a first.  A lot of the super cold years that didn't snow much, the blocking wasn't long term enough or there wasn't much of a STJ so it didn't take much suppression.  This year doesn't feel that way.  

[frd]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I hate to quote my arch nemesis but yesterday JB was going on about needing to get rid of the PV over Canada.  (was he reading here again! LOL)  I decided to use the panel of the EPS that was showme had up earlier.

First of all this is NOT a bad pattern, we can work with this, and we could get a snowstorm from this, but that PV there is less than ideal.  

Great illustrations !

You know I was speculaing , not wish casting, whether this sudden turn we made from no winter arriving to, yeah it s coming and it could get nasty is the same way things evolve for our area with snow. A sudden flip and then one event after the other. We would not see it is coming until almost the last minute.      

[Yeoman]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Great illustrations !

You know I was speculaing , not wish casting, whether this sudden turn we made from no winter arriving to, yeah it s coming and it could get nasty is the same way things evolve for our area with snow. A sudden flip and then one event after the other. We would not see it is coming until almost the last minute.      

The twitter bot is a real person?

[psuhoffman]

the systems in the 18-22 period are definitely moving away from the cutter idea.  

[WxUSAF]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

the systems in the 18-22 period are definitely moving away from the cutter idea.  

GEFS looks good around the 18th today.  Less weakness up near the Lakes.  

[WxUSAF]

Damn long-range GEFS looks tasty with the PV stuck underneath the -AO/-NAO and it leaning toward the 50/50 region.  

[frd]

56 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

The twitter bot is a real person?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_bot

[MN Transplant]

 

 

Interesting.  When NOAA was working on contenders for the next-generation GFS it basically came down to the FV3 from GFDL and MPAS from NCAR.  Obviously the FV3 won out, and now IBM teamed up with NCAR on the MPAS-based model.  Model war

 

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

 

Interesting.  When NOAA was working on contenders for the next-generation GFS it basically came down to the FV3 from GFDL and MPAS from NCAR.  Obviously the FV3 won out, and now IBM teamed up with NCAR on the MPAS-based model.  Model war

 

I could be wrong but I think the Fv3 is still based on a hydrostatic display of the atmosphere.  If so then we are still tinkering and adding fixes into a flawed base. The non hydrostatic euro is better. 

I don't think ncep has the money to make that an option and so the best we can do is compensate but we are still building on an inferior framework. 

[Bob Chill]

Rock solid EPS run. 3 threat windows in the next 15 days. Couldn't ask for anything more. 

[LP08]

The fun is just beginning too. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Rock solid EPS run. 3 threat windows in the next 15 days. Couldn't ask for anything more. 

Hits maybe?