North Balti Zen Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 He’s trolling his persona on purpose now and it is absolutely shitty to the board. Even in the coldest of stretches in the coldest of winters there will be days at our latitude and climo in the 40s or 50s. It is shit posting of the highest order to post a map for a modeled day where something normal temp wise is happening and insinuate what he is insinuating. I wish we got newspaper winter storm expert Ji more in these parts than jackass Ji. 9 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, North Balti Zen said: He’s trolling his persona on purpose now and it is absolutely shitty to the He's got a special pass. He adds nothing, clogs threads with annoying comments and the mods think he's cute. Now, I'm going back to lurking. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 There should be oppurtunities in the weeks ahead, even if this weekend does not deliver. Pretty good signal should be active. I personally don't like putting any faith in these long range snowfall maps, but post simply to show there will be systems to track. All is not lost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 As for the strat SSWE nearing or at the peak and seeing oppurtunity for coupling, plus additional warming. Keep in mind too, the pressure remains on the SPV as evidenced by this : Here we seeing additional warming possible : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 From bluewave in the NY forum, I thought this was an interesting reflection so brought it here. This seems to echo the thoughts of some mets which were mentioning for the pattern change to produce snow you need to give it a little time, things need to progress and reshuffle. ( see below ,last section ) Personally, I feel we get better scoring oppurtunities after Jan 19th, and even though I have no science based backing on this, maybe this is the last time we have to worry about things needing to move North. Between coastal, hybrids and gradient type storms we should be presented multiple oppurtunities to score from various set ups Jan 20 th to early March. If you believe the GEFS and GFS ensembles the potential is there for significant snowfall this month, along with @showmethesnowbreakdown moving forward you should be encouraged. Ok this is from @bluewave " This year is following a similar snowfall pattern to 12-13 so far. In Nov 12 we got a 6” event on the 7th. This year the 6” event was on 11-15. Both years had no further 6” events through Jan 10th. I believe the reason for this is that it takes time to recover from a pattern change to less favorable for snow from November into December. Hopefully, we won’t have to wait until February 8-9 for the next 6” event like 2013. " 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 06z continues with the strong signal for snow in the extended and it continues to move forward in time. Looking at day 9-16 we see roughly a 6 inch increase through the general DC/Balt corridor which is a good signal for being in the extended. Seeing emphasis in particular centered on the potential storm Jan 20-22. Some drool worthy solutions in the mix for VA and/or MD through the full 16 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 35 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: 06z continues with the strong signal for snow in the extended and it continues to move forward in time. Looking at day 9-16 we see roughly a 6 inch increase through the general DC/Balt corridor which is a good signal for being in the extended. Seeing emphasis in particular centered on the potential storm Jan 20-22. Some drool worthy solutions in the mix for VA and/or MD through the full 16 days. I’m excited about the 20-22, but wondering why people are thinking it will rain. Isn’t the pattern cold enough to support snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I’m excited about the 20-22, but wondering why people are thinking it will rain. Isn’t the pattern cold enough to support snow? It is, but it all comes down to track as always. West track might give us some front-end frozen, but probably would flip to rain eventually. Coastal/south track would keep us all frozen. Plenty of cold air around, just depends on where the boundary sits at any given time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Zonal winds today, not a record, but close. > ####------------------------------------ Polar vortex status ------------------------------------### The strat. vortex is currently weaker than ERA interim average and is forecasted to remain weaker than average (according to EPS-mean) 0 of 21 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2019-01-25 06:00:00) The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -10.8 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -13.2 m/s 2004 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 67.7 m/s 1983 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Nice downward trajectory of the SOI average and today's value is -7.30. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 @nj2va I know you, like others, have been looking to this time frame for a significant storm. The trending is becoming more evident, and the reshuffle is getting there. Eric's post is a good one. Get ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 59 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I’m excited about the 20-22, but wondering why people are thinking it will rain. Isn’t the pattern cold enough to support snow? OPs have been spitting out rain solutions so people who just look at that think it will rain. If you look at the ensembles you will see more snow solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, jaydreb said: OPs have been spitting out rain solutions so people who just look at that think it will rain. If you look at the ensembles you will see more snow solutions. That makes sense. But it makes me wonder why local tv mets would base a 10 day forecast on the GFS Op to tell people our next storm would only be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 hours ago, frd said: From bluewave in the NY forum, I thought this was an interesting reflection so brought it here. This seems to echo the thoughts of some mets which were mentioning for the pattern change to produce snow you need to give it a little time, things need to progress and reshuffle. ( see below ,last section ) Personally, I feel we get better scoring oppurtunities after Jan 19th, and even though I have no science based backing on this, maybe this is the last time we have to worry about things needing to move North. Between coastal, hybrids and gradient type storms we should be presented multiple oppurtunities to score from various set ups Jan 20 th to early March. If you believe the GEFS and GFS ensembles the potential is there for significant snowfall this month, along with @showmethesnowbreakdown moving forward you should be encouraged. Ok this is from @bluewave " This year is following a similar snowfall pattern to 12-13 so far. In Nov 12 we got a 6” event on the 7th. This year the 6” event was on 11-15. Both years had no further 6” events through Jan 10th. I believe the reason for this is that it takes time to recover from a pattern change to less favorable for snow from November into December. Hopefully, we won’t have to wait until February 8-9 for the next 6” event like 2013. " I know he isn't talking about specifics but referencing 2013 which was an epic fail around here won't calm Ji and his debs down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GEFS is looking more and more promising. Trying to bring the MJO out of the COD into the colder phases to one again cycle through them. Been seeing a tendency for the EPS to move towards that direction as well. GEFS EPS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know he isn't talking about specifics but referencing 2013 which was an epic fail around here won't calm Ji and his debs down. I don't want to upset Ji, he is already on edge. Looking ahead, and the state of things, we should be happy down here. Simply referenced as a means to bring up sometime you require time for the best part of a new pattern to set in. As you know, not every threat becomes a reality, but ample activity means we have an increased likelyhood of seeing the white stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GEFS is looking more and more promising. Trying to bring the MJO out of the COD into the colder phases to one again cycle through them. Been seeing a tendency for the EPS to move towards that direction as well. Been finding the GEFS is very useful on various fronts. This is good news here, and maybe we get a El Nino coupling as well with the continued decline of the SOI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 20 minutes ago, frd said: I don't want to upset Ji, he is already on edge. Looking ahead, and the state of things, we should be happy down here. Simply referenced as a means to bring up sometime you require time for the best part of a new pattern to set in. As you know, not every threat becomes a reality, but ample activity means we have an increased likelyhood of seeing the white stuff. Not worried about 2013...totally different pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 19 minutes ago, frd said: Been finding the GEFS is very useful on various fronts. This is good news here, and maybe we get a El Nino coupling as well with the continued decline of the SOI. Looking at pressure anomalies in the pacific the soi looks to average negative the next 5 days...then might be around neutral days 6-10 before tanking again after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, frd said: Been finding the GEFS is very useful on various fronts. This is good news here, and maybe we get a El Nino coupling as well with the continued decline of the SOI. Can't understand the panic from some on these boards. Everything is or has been moving towards an all systems go for 'Lift off' shortly on one of the best setups I can ever recall. And not a short lived one but one that could potentially last for most if not all of winter. A winter, I might add, that could extend well into March. Could we fail? Absolutely, after all luck plays a part in our winters and/or the models could just plain be wrong. But at this point, nothing, and I mean Absolutely Nothing is sending up a red flag in my mind. The potential is on the table for one of our more historic stretches of winter but I guess if some people want to be miserable the whole time worrying about failure and not savoring it, well then that is on them. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Can't understand the panic from some on these boards. Everything is or has been moving towards an all systems go for 'Lift off' shortly on one of the best setups I can ever recall. And not a short lived one but one that could potentially last for most if not all of winter. A winter, I might add, that could extend well into March. Could we fail? Absolutely, after all luck plays a part in our winters and/or the models could just plain be wrong. But at this point, nothing, and I mean Absolutely Nothing is sending up a red flag in my mind. The potential is on the table for one of our more historic stretches of winter but I guess if some people want to be miserable the whole time worrying about failure and not savoring it, well then that is on them. I don't get it either. I'm just excited and anxious to get to Jan 20 and start tracking and see what happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Can't understand the panic from some on these boards. Everything is or has been moving towards an all systems go for 'Lift off' shortly on one of the best setups I can ever recall. And not a short lived one but one that could potentially last for most if not all of winter. A winter, I might add, that could extend well into March. Could we fail? Absolutely, after all luck plays a part in our winters and/or the models could just plain be wrong. But at this point, nothing, and I mean Absolutely Nothing is sending up a red flag in my mind. The potential is on the table for one of our more historic stretches of winter but I guess if some people want to be miserable the whole time worrying about failure and not savoring it, well then that is on them. I am so confident it will snow, and with a little pressure from my daughter, I left a couple trees outside still decorated in white Christmas lights. She enjoys seeing the lights over a fallen snow cover. The snow fell so early in November the lights were not even up yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I don't get it either. I'm just excited and anxious to get to Jan 20 and start tracking and see what happens. How quickly people (specific people) forget that this weekend was a universally agreed upon rain storm at d9-10. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 HONKHONKHONKWOOFWOOFHONKWOOFHONK 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: HONKHONKHONKWOOFWOOFHONKWOOFHONK Haha I was about to post that I could extrapolate a HECs form there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not worried about 2013...totally different pattern. Thank goodness! I was really concerned because I remember that year as an awful one around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 What a massive storm around 1/20.l on GFS. Verbatim would be heartbreak for my backyard. Followed by temps in single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I keep checking on the storm for this weekend, but love to see all of the optimism on this board about the next several weeks. Especially if we fail this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 lol 12z GFS drops the arctic hammer around the 20th after the storm goes by and tries to have us go below zero Jan 21st lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 dependent on the snowpack it thinks we'll have i assume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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