Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Jandurin said: now i want to know how many patterns that were good that we've received subpar snow in AND how many patterns similar to the one prognosticated that we've received subpar snow totals i suppose, though, that i only have to wait 2 or so months to get a better idea of the potential Luck and chaos change outcomes. Especially if you focus on a tiny but really important piece of real estate called your yard. The advertised pattern yells east coast storms but the east coast is huge. Someone is getting hammered if the weeklies are right. Think about 09-10. Greatest winter of all time. But if you drive 200 miles north or south nobody would agree with you. We were fortunate and got lucky with 3 amazing events in under 2 weeks. That part was more luck than exclusive to the pattern. One thing that's good is nino climo + neg ao/nao favors the MA and SE. The northeast isnt as stoked as we are. They want miller b's and a neg ao/nao. That's why they clean up with nina's. 2010-11 had great blocking the first half of winter but it wasnt good here. No guarantees in this game. The NE might clean house in Feb and we struggle. We'll just have to wait and see how each storm breaks and hope for the best. It's a remarkable long wave pattern showing up though. No doubt the best since 09-10. Might be identical but that doesnt mean luck and chaos break our way this time like it did in 09-10 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: @psuhoffman Looks like somebody gave JB the magic crayons again...lol (I honestly think you could make a Disney movie out of that concept, lol) I should copyright that quick! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: A KU is a major snowstorm that is big enough to be studied in depth by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellinni (KU stands for their last names). Usually a widespread 10"+ storm. So a "KU pattern" is the type of pattern that favors a major or historic snowstorm for our area. If the long range guidance is right, then we have a lot of fun times coming up. Wow. Thanks. a KU event is very much needed around here this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ji said: i read a tweet that that el nino was suppose to form sometime this spring....are we not in a el nino? 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It is supposed to be forming now. As of a week or so ago, per CPC/NCEP, ENSO was neutral with an El Nino Watch in effect. The SST have bee in a weak modoki configuration for months. But it takes 3 consecutive months to declare official. And the atmosphere is just now coupling so if you define by MEI or atmosheric pattern we are just entering now which isn't uncommon for weak modoki events. The SST nino pattern has peaked and will slowly fade the next few months but because of the lag on making it official it will be declared as the nino is actually fading. Where we go after that is ambiguous at this time. I'm going to enjoy the ride the next 2 months THEN we can worry about next years enso state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Anyone who doesn't fully grasp what exactly a textbook hemispheric KU pattern looks like... just memorize this... lol. Week 6 looks looks identical. Textbook KU patterns in Feb have been kind to the MA over the years. Looks familiar 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks familiar Please don't tease us like that - just downright nasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 39 minutes ago, RDM said: Please don't tease us like that - just downright nasty! If that look on the cfs jma and euro is correct for February it would take some monumental bad luck not to end well. Now as @Bob Chill points out there was some luck 2010 in us being the epicenter. But there was a string of snows from the January 30 storm that mainly south of us with the heaviest to the Feb 20 storm that was north. Yea we were the bullseye of that pattern and there is no guarantee that happens again, but you had to get south of Richmond and north of NYC before the results weren't at least "really good" that year. Other nino years with that look during prime climo also delivered. 1964, 1966, 1978, 1987 all ring a bell but they weren't all as good as this look but close at times just not for a month or more . 1958 developed that look but not until later and it still delivered. But they all delivered at least good results. I cant think of any modoki ninos where we got that look and failed. 1969 had an awful Pacific pattern muting the nao and the stj was mia much of that year. I know the mei this year is a good match as 40/60 said but I disagree with the pattern match because the stj has been beast this year. That has behaved more like a typical nino than 69. 1995 was just awful start to finish. Pattern never looked like this 2005 was again absent much stj until late (when we did score 2 secs in late Feb) and the pattern was only so so. Some blocking, at times an ok PAC but never great and never in tandem So going off historical reference if the guidance is right about a prolonged month long look like that I highly doubt we don't exceed climo snowfall. Doesn't mean we repeat 2010...that takes luck also but other than Ji we should be happy with the results imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 This is extreme 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Looks alright I'll wait for Ralph's opinion before I jump in I approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 @Bob Chill @frd @C.A.P.E. @WxUSAF Never seen a weeklies snow mean even close to this. Ever... and it's not localized. It buries the whole northern half of the Conus. ETA. It looks more like those old goofy clown cfs snow maps 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill @frd @C.A.P.E. @WxUSAF Never seen a weeklies snow mean even close to this. Ever... and it's not localized. It buries the whole northern half of the Conus. ETA. It looks more like those old goofy clown cfs snow maps Have to guess some of that 40+ in upstate NY is LES. However, at the BN temps forecast, it won't take long for the GLs to freeze over, which of course cuts their source. MO looks to be in a bullseye too. With the defined cutoff between the haves and have nots, looks to be a heck of a boundary that's gone setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill @frd @C.A.P.E. @WxUSAF Never seen a weeklies snow mean even close to this. Ever... and it's not localized. It buries the whole northern half of the Conus. ETA. It looks more like those old goofy clown cfs snow maps That is pretty darn impressive for a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just had a chance to look over the weeklies and try to match them up with some of the other LR guidance ideas and teleconnections. Long story short as to not repeat what psu, bob, and others have already mentioned in detail.....I am all in for the 2nd half of winter. Can we fail? That's a possibility no matter what but with the constant looks and support that we are seeing chances are low. Next 10 days continue to step towards deep winter then the bottom is going to drop out in a good way Jan 20+......kudos psu and others if this works as advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 @psuhoffman dude, this is the hall of fame weenie weeklies run. I cant find a flaw. You know what that means though... it can only go downhill from here.... lol I went back and looked through my old AO data spreadsheets. Strong blocking events last anywhere from 30 to 60 days with the majority right around 45 days. It's very possible we have favorable blocking into mid march after seeing week 6. Lol. Wouldnt that be something? All these years with basically no stable blocking and now potential for 4-8 weeks during the best possible timeframe. Check out the control 46 snowfall. SNE nightmare. Lol. I have a hunch they score nicely though. No way we have cold and blocking like what's being advertised and the NE not getting their share. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman dude, this is the hall of fame weenie weeklies run. I cant find a flaw. You know what that means though... it can only go downhill from here.... lol I went back and looked through my old AO data spreadsheets. Strong blocking events last anywhere from 30 to 60 days with the majority right around 45 days. It's very possible we have favorable blocking into mid march after seeing week 6. Lol. Wouldnt that be something? All these years with basically no stable blocking and now potential for 4-8 weeks during the best possible timeframe. Check out the control 46 snowfall. SNE nightmare. Lol. I have a hunch they score nicely though. No way we have cold and blocking like what's being advertised and the NE not getting their share. But it didn't snow on Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I should copyright that quick! Lol Nah bro--we in this 50/50!!! (Low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 34 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Never seen a weeklies snow mean even close to this. Ever @psuhoffman Wow psu that is impressive, eye candy for sure! I just got done listening to the this week in weather video from DT, and towards the end he covers the weeklies and comments on each week one by one. You can tell by his voice and wording that he is really, really impressed. He said looks like 09-10. DT provided his thoughts on potential storm dates as well on the video, it is bascially a threat every 5 days, or close to it. I've been scanning all my sources and I even hear the word triple phaser. Yes, I know that is a once every 100 year storm or more, just goes to show you how impressed folks are about the potential. And lets all remember it is potential only right now, but oh the excitment to see the possibilities. I need to move my snow blower up to the front of my garage tomorrow and ready her up ! Its game time soon !!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 24 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: But it didn't snow on Christmas And look, it takes 1104 hours for 18in of snow.. Meh.. Next! I'm kidding, really can't argue with all the optimism for the upcoming pattern. The other thing I like is everybody "should" score a decent storm so if your back yard misses it won't be long until the next threat shows up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman dude, this is the hall of fame weenie weeklies run. I cant find a flaw. You know what that means though... it can only go downhill from here.... lol I went back and looked through my old AO data spreadsheets. Strong blocking events last anywhere from 30 to 60 days with the majority right around 45 days. It's very possible we have favorable blocking into mid march after seeing week 6. Lol. Wouldnt that be something? All these years with basically no stable blocking and now potential for 4-8 weeks during the best possible timeframe. Check out the control 46 snowfall. SNE nightmare. Lol. I have a hunch they score nicely though. No way we have cold and blocking like what's being advertised and the NE not getting their share. I know everyone wants Christmas season snow but the best time to get blocking is mid January to March. It correlates to cold and snow here more later in the season than earlier. Dec 09 was great but way more often we waste epic early blocks. Blocking in February is a way better bet. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill @frd @C.A.P.E. @WxUSAF Never seen a weeklies snow mean even close to this. Ever... and it's not localized. It buries the whole northern half of the Conus. ETA. It looks more like those old goofy clown cfs snow maps That's pretty incredible for a mean. I can only imagine what the high end ensemble members show. Does anyone remember what the weeklies showed in mid-late January 2010? I know for sure that I haven't seen this kind of optimism about long range patterns on the forums since 2009-10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, Fozz said: That's pretty incredible for a mean. I can only imagine what the high end ensemble members show. Does anyone remember what the weeklies showed in mid-late January 2010? I know for sure that I haven't seen this kind of optimism about long range patterns on the forums since 2009-10. Ask and ye shall receive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This is extreme WOW. I dont ever remember a block like that in my life. That is crazy. Anybody else notice the little Mid Atlantic special next Thursday on the 0Z GFS. Just a couple of hours of light snow. The kind of mini storm that turns the roads to a solid sheet of ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Ask and ye shall receive Ha, the “worst” is 6” which is over 1/3 of climo for DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ask and ye shall receive Wow... saving that image right now for later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Check it out, a nice Yukon block on the 0z GFS 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Here is the most recent run. Edit: Sorry. Thought Bob had posted one from 2010. Didn’t realize it was this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Ji, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Ji, is that you? Nice signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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