frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Awaiting confirmation but the new weeklies might take winter into late Feb. and early March , incredible Day 14 to 28 to me looks epic. all the weeks are great . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: Awaiting confirmation but the new weeklies might take winter into late Feb. and early March , incredible Confirmed. Another epic run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Confirmed. Another epic run. Yeah BABY !!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Confirmed. Another epic run. Holly all mighty look at the blocking both -NAO and awesome PAC ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, frd said: Holly all mighty look at the blocking both -NAO and awesome PAC ! Just to pick one panel to admire.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, frd said: Holly all mighty look at the blocking both -NAO and awesome PAC ! That run is unreal....or surreal. No let up thru the end of the run with just a classic pattern. A lot of late nights are on the way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Weeklies look good from pretty much hour 432 - 1108! Deep winter for 6-8 weeks, and all those panels can be found on 33andrain courtesy of @Allsnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: That run is unreal....or surreal. No let up thru the end of the run with just a classic pattern. A lot of late nights are on the way.... Besides the ElNino and other things you have to think the Euro is incorporating the SSWE and the HL into the forecast you see. Too good to see otherwise. I mean it is like you said, surreal. Imagine if you will the possibilities to behold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: Besides the ElNino and other things you have to think the Euro is incorporating the SSWE and the HL into the forecast you see. Too good to see otherwise. I mean it is like you said, surreal. Imagine if you will the possibilities to behold. Just loop the 18z gfs and think that we could possibly have 4-6 weeks of tracking similar possibilities. There you go again with that strat voodoo stuff again.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Snowstorm5921 said: To be fair the ensembles have looked favorable in the long range only to crumble into a pile of fail as we got closer. Nice virtual snow to look at though. Man it's a different pattern we're heading into--different than what we have seen so far this season!!! (or the last couple of seasons, actually, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 @C.A.P.E. wwwwooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. You couldn't have drawn better looking panels than the weeklies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Snowstorm5921 said: To be fair the ensembles have looked favorable in the long range only to crumble into a pile of fail as we got closer. Nice virtual snow to look at though. Yea, until this weekend's storm morphed into guaranteed rain to snow and the long range look has been improving ever since. The flip from the pac puke actually happened FASTER than any long range model initially showed. So the current trend is things are improving faster and better. I dont think i'll be thinking fail as i watch snow fall this weekend which is about a week earlier than anyone or model was thinking 10 days ago 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Just loop the 18z gfs and think that we could possibly have 4-6 weeks of tracking similar possibilities. There you go again with that strat voodoo stuff again.... The voodoo is working hopefully , ha ha ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: @C.A.P.E. wwwwooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. You couldn't have drawn better looking panels than the weeklies. I know right? I mean if we all sat down with a paint program and created our perfect dream winter h5 pattern- that would be it. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Thru the end of Jan looking ripe.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Decent GEFS signal for next weekend 240 246 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Anyone who doesn't fully grasp what exactly a textbook hemispheric KU pattern looks like... just memorize this... lol. Week 6 looks looks identical. Textbook KU patterns in Feb have been kind to the MA over the years. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Looks alright I'll wait for Ralph's opinion before I jump in 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, frd said: Awaiting confirmation but the new weeklies might take winter into late Feb. and early March , incredible I kinda expected but still good to confirm. I know I am an optimist and even in a bad year I will try to put as positive a spin as I can. I will just turn to hunting a single fluke snow that can happen in even the worst years. But I guess one of the reasons I got into it with Becky on twitter was I took offense to the insinuation that I was "hyping" and only seeing what I want to see. I don't honk like this over "epic" long range patterns unless I really feel strongly in the potential. I'm not always right but I'm not hyping. This makes sense. I didn't start out in the fall with any preconceived notions. When I started compiling the analogs it was clear that we were going into this winter with many of the same characteristics as some big years. And minus a couple outliers they shared a lot of commonality all pointing towards a big second half. So when seasonal and sub seasonal guidance started showing what the analogs said was favored it just made sense. It wasn't a matter of me model hugging. I thought the guidance was right because it matched what history suggested could happen in this type of winter. I don't mind when people point out when I'm wrong and I don't mind when they disagree or deb but I hate having my integrity questioned. I called for an epic pattern flip because I truly excited an epic pattern flip. I'm not spiking the football. A good pattern isn't the same as good snow but getting the pattern is step one. Now we need a little luck. Or with that look it's more we just have to not have bad luck. Hopefully we go from tracking the pattern to measuring the snow soon! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 i read a tweet that that el nino was suppose to form sometime this spring....are we not in a el nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 @psuhoffman Looks like somebody gave JB the magic crayons again...lol (I honestly think you could make a Disney movie out of that concept, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, until this weekend's storm morphed into guaranteed rain to snow and the long range look has been improving ever since. The flip from the pac puke actually happened FASTER than any long range model initially showed. So the current trend is things are improving faster and better. I dont think i'll be thinking fail as i watch snow fall this weekend which is about a week earlier than anyone or model was thinking 10 days ago Can’t argue there. Just want to see it come to fruition 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 SOI has gone negative again----10 out of 11 days....and 2 days in a row after briefly hitting 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I totally get it.....epic patterns have a higher potential to produce an epic storm as opposed to a meh pattern. Less likely to see an epic storm in a meh pattern tho it does happen. Quality vs quantity I suppose. But like u said Ji paraphrasing as I cant vouch for those numbers verbatim, not every epic pattern will produce. It's like playing the nickel slots (meh pattern) and hoping to hit a big cash-out vs going into the high rollers lounge where you are going to drop more in but your payouts will normally be higher tho not as frequently. now i want to know how many patterns that were good that we've received subpar snow in AND how many patterns similar to the one prognosticated that we've received subpar snow totals i suppose, though, that i only have to wait 2 or so months to get a better idea of the potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: i read a tweet that that el nino was suppose to form sometime this spring....are we not in a el nino? The western subsurface is strengthening, which in El nino it is usually cooling/cold pooling right now because it would normally transition to Neutral or La Nina. We basically can't go lower than a Weak Nina next year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: i read a tweet that that el nino was suppose to form sometime this spring....are we not in a el nino? It is supposed to be forming now. As of a week or so ago, per CPC/NCEP, ENSO was neutral with an El Nino Watch in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I absolute love all this excitement about the pattern. I have no idea what the classic pattern looks like other than -NAO, -AO, etc. And the pretty blues on our side of the map. My question is, what is KU? Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: SOI has gone negative again----10 out of 11 days....and 2 days in a row after briefly hitting 0 If we can stay neg for the next several days the 30 day avg will drop like a rock....some big positives about to drop off. As PSU stated...it looks like a bout of neutral or positive here soon but with another crash later should place us squarely in a nino state. The dominos are falling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I absolute love all this excitement about the pattern. I have no idea what the classic pattern looks like other than -NAO, -AO, etc. And the pretty blues on our side of the map. My question is, what is KU? Thank you! A KU is a major snowstorm that is big enough to be studied in depth by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini (KU stands for their last names). Usually a widespread 10"+ storm. So a "KU pattern" is the type of pattern that favors a major or historic snowstorm for our area. If the long range guidance is right, then we have a lot of fun times coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, until this weekend's storm morphed into guaranteed rain to snow and the long range look has been improving ever since. The flip from the pac puke actually happened FASTER than any long range model initially showed. So the current trend is things are improving faster and better. I dont think i'll be thinking fail as i watch snow fall this weekend which is about a week earlier than anyone or model was thinking 10 days ago I don't think he posts in good faith. At first I thought he was just a bad poster but I'm pretty sure he is just trolling now. Either way he has now entered the short list of posters I will just scroll past and ignore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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