WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Holy sh-t. That's insane. My God is the GEFS ever honking the MLK day window. Clear coastal track favored with major precipitation forecast, especially given the lead times! Like 1.5" of liquid on the MEAN over the +/- 2 day window around the 20-21st! Good lord. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: My God is the GEFS ever honking the MLK day window. Clear coastal track favored with major precipitation forecast, especially given the lead times! Like 1.5" of liquid on the MEAN over the +/- 2 day window around the 20-21st! Good lord. So... is it worthy of this? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Absolutely it is. Not sure I can recall that sort of signal at D11-12 leads before. Maybe Jan 2016? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I doubt it.. It's a SE ridge signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 So is my day Jan 20-22 storm still on the docket? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Absolutely it is. Not sure I can recall that sort of signal at D11-12 leads before. Maybe Jan 2016? I checked three times before posting it because I did not believe what I was seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Good gloppity!!!!! This could get interesting if the signal is still there in a few days...lol (and even more so if we are getting the weekend snow on top of that!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That's ensemble MEAN just in that time window!?! Yeah, I had to do a double-take on that map and realized it's the GEFS mean and not the ops deterministic...can't believe that's the mean in that time frame! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Pretty incredible Aleutian trough on 12z GFS ensembles. Probably an ENSO subsurface warming wave. This is also a strengthening El Nino signal,+AAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: My God is the GEFS ever honking the MLK day window. Clear coastal track favored with major precipitation forecast, especially given the lead times! Like 1.5" of liquid on the MEAN over the +/- 2 day window around the 20-21st! Good lord. Looking at the mean panels, it's spread out in a 4 day window but still a very strong signal for long leads. EPS has .7 qpf mean for the same period. Still a great sign imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: So is my day Jan 20-22 storm still on the docket? Ha ha seems to be two events, one near the 19th to 20 th and another near the 25 th to 26 th. I am sure you saw the GFS with a a 968 mb death bomb on Jan 25 th. And the MLK one has that insane snow mean, YET , the Jan 25 th GFS forecast has that intense low pressure of 968 !!! Two that close ?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking at the mean panels, it's spread out in a 4 day window but still a very strong signal for long leads. EPS has .7 qpf mean for the same period. Still a great sign imo Will naturally be timing variations at this lead, but that's a huge signal. Glad to hear EPS is bullish also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 @frd Yeah, think I mentioned I thought we would see a follow up as well. Think the follow up will depend on the initial one I was keying on during the 20-22 period. If the initial one blows up then the followup probably won't amount to much. If the initial one doesn't blow up into a major storm and is more pedestrian then I think that will set the stage for the followup to go to town. Don't really see both being big players though. Just one or the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Holy +NAO.. early Spring 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Holy +NAO.. early Spring Chuck, Bizzaro Superman says Up Shut. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Love that look . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 If correct , the next couple days the zonal winds become even more negative. Recovery is very slow. A long SSWE for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The most impressive thing watching this animation to me is the duration of the warming, no doubt long lasting impacts for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 This is the time frame of the psu and showme storm, Jan 19 to Jan 22, yet around this time period we are possibly getting a coupling / down welling, along with a possible split of the main polar vortex. ( 21 st and onwards ) Can not be certain, but look for extreme blocking to develop near this time and afterwards, ensuring a continuation of a favorable pattern for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: That's ensemble MEAN just in that time window!?! **** man that's amazing. Having a mean that far out is straight up EJ level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 EPS isn't as good as the weenie gefs but it's def in the weenie category. Looks like 2 shots after this weekend and the pattern remains ripe from there. Just a couple good breaks this month and Jan is going to rock. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS isn't as good as the weenie gefs but it's def in the weenie category. Looks like 2 shots after this weekend and the pattern remains ripe from there. Just a couple good breaks this month and Jan is going to rock. I thought we were punting January? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS isn't as good as the weenie gefs but it's def in the weenie category. Looks like 2 shots after this weekend and the pattern remains ripe from there. Just a couple good breaks this month and Jan is going to rock. Bob, do you have an opinion or stats, as to what model at long range (GEFS, EPS, etc. ) are better in predicting snow events and storms for our area ? Do you think if the GEFS does indeed do better at forecasting the HL it might be more useful at long leads because of that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 42 minutes ago, frd said: The most impressive thing watching this animation to me is the duration of the warming, no doubt long lasting impacts for Feb. So it looks like the official Stratosphere warming is Dec 17 - Jan 24. Around Dec15 the lead time is +35 days and at Jan25 the lead time is +22 days.... so this is a correlation to -NAO Jan 21-Feb 17 officially using the whole Stratosphere warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I thought we were punting January? Winter has already shown its hand. PAC puke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I thought we were punting January? I did but punt was blocked then I recovered subsequent fumble and have the ball back. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I did but punt was blocked then I recovered subsequent fumble and have the ball back. You sure you didn't just pull a fake punt (a'la FSU vs. Auburn in the 2014 BCS game...awesome play and turning point that led FSU to win that game!): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 EPS snow pretty much sucks despite the pattern. You take away this weekend storm...its like 1-2 inches through 360 . We saw better than that in the shutout pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ji said: EPS snow pretty much sucks despite the pattern. You take away this weekend storm...its like 1-2 inches through 360 . We saw better than that in the shutout pattern Dude, just hug the control run and toss the 50 other ones. Are you new at this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: Bob, do you have an opinion or stats, as to what model at long range (GEFS, EPS, etc. ) are better in predicting snow events and storms for our area ? Do you think if the GEFS does indeed do better at forecasting the HL it might be more useful at long leads because of that ? Overall, I trust the EPS the most. Has the best dispersion and also the highest skill scores at h5. However, the GEFS has picked up on large hemispheric pattern changes way out in time so when the gefs starts diverging d12+ I definitely give it some extra credit. Since discrete events require so many fine details to come together right it's always hard to buy into anything beyond 7 days or so. I generally use ensembles to get an idea how h5 is looking and just make some guesses based on what I know. The snow output and all that stuff is more for eye candy then setting legit expectations. The second most useful panel on the EPS after h5 is the low location plot. Gives you an instant snapshot of how lows and highs might interact. If I had to pick between the gefs and eps it's an easy call but that doesn't mean the gefs is very good at times because it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts