North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Oh he's just asking questions to learn silly I mean, for fuccksake, it’s so wearying. Can we fail? Well, yeah? There’s never a guarantee, ever, is he looking for a guarantee? On every page of every thread? 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This weekend looked like a lock for a rainstorm just a few days ago. It will be interesting to see what happens with the next precip maker in line next week. That is also showing up as rain but has already started to trend colder. Very interesting transition phase we're in. It's pretty rare to go from a stable pac puke pattern right into one with threats on the front side. I’ve felt this pattern would flip on a dime and we won’t be enduring weeks of gradual step downs. Rare for us to rid the country of PAC puke so quickly but this year seems to be heading there. Something about this winter’s pattern change just feels different (talk about a complete weenie post). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There was at least 1 in the 70s. Cant remember the exact year. Bay froze over but barely snowed. One of the walking encyclopedias on here can share details. Overall, one of the last things i'm going to worry about is too much blocking. It doesnt even make the worry list honestly 77? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 54 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Oh he's just asking questions to learn silly Precisely. Not every question is a panicked "worry", per se... Just trying to learn what atmospheric elements have worked around here and what hasn't! And it's been kinda fascinating--(and frustrating at times, lol) really something seeing how much goes into play for us to getting snow! I have become much more sympathetic to meteorologists now, lol Forecasting snow here can be a challenge, to say the least!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: 77? Followed by the next winter which was just as bad. We might be getting two decent winters in a row. Next winter is also near the bottom of the solar min, some even say next winter has more of a connection. Not sure about the QBO. Might get a 2 year Nino. And way out ( speculation ) there as well are going to be the effects form several VEI 3 or greater Volcanic eruptions to cool the globe. But in that manner not sure the effects of blocking. I know HM has spoke about the connection and Isotherm mentoned it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 55 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I mean, for fuccksake, it’s so wearying. Can we fail? Well, yeah? There’s never a guarantee, ever, is he looking for a guarantee? On every page of every thread? Please see my above reply..., Also...there was someone else who messaged me earlier today who said he hesitated to ask questions on here because some people could be jerks about answering. And that shouldn't be...there is absolutely nothing wrong with asking questions and exploring all kinds of scenarios. So yes, I want to learn why it does and doesn't snow here because I love it just like the rest of you! Does my weenieish worrying drive me to look for some of those answers? Yes. But even so, many of the questions I ask are specific. (I know I was a bit off the rails last month, but I've moved pass that!) Thank you to the posters who actually have taken the time to answer my questions--I learn a lot from you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, frd said: Followed by the next winter which was just as bad. We might be getting two decent winters in a row. Next winter is also near the bottom of the solar min, some even say next winter has more of a connection. Not sure about the QBO. Might get a 2 year Nino. And way out ( speculation ) there as well are going to be the effects form several VEI 3 or greater Volcanic eruptions to cool the globe. But in that manner not sure the effects of blocking. I know HM has spoke about the connection and Isotherm mentoned it as well. I've had a running theory about that based on what I see in our history...it does seem like we often score in the winter just before or just after the minimum (or both!)...and so I've always felt that we would have a great winter either this year or next year. Will certainly be interesting to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I've had a running theory about that based on what I see in our history...it does seem like we often score in the winter just before or just after the minimum (or both!)...and so I've always felt that we would have a great winter either this year or next year. Will certainly be interesting to watch... Nothing in weather in ever certain, but it will be interesting to see how things evolve moving forward. As far as knowing about whether we will have a second year Nino, it is too early to tell for sure. There are some indications, but thats it at this time. Predictions in the Spring for the Fall, in regards to the Pacific, are not accurate and give false signals at times. Really need to wait until we get to later summer to see, and then look at various oceanic models to see what is going on and look at the sub surface and a bunch of other stuff too. In years past many times it was a given an El Nino was on the way, and then when we got closer in it went POOF. So for the moment, enjoy the upcoming pattern, and we can see later in the year what the El Nino has in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Of interest , I am not sure about the VEI of this. Regardless of this eruption, it is of note there have been numerous volcanic eruptions recently, as we have neared the low solar min. Several or more with a VEI of 3 or greater. Monday, Jan 07, 2019 Another very powerful explosion has occurred- the 4th in this current eruptive period and first since December 8th- with a discrete (individual) explosion sending ash to 55,000ft- the highest Manam plume since an eruption in 2015 sent a plume to 65,000ft (~20km). A continuous eruption is now reaching up to 30,000ft (9km). There is no indication that a significantly-larger eruption like that of January 2005 is going to occur. [more] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: There was at least 1 in the 70s. Cant remember the exact year. Bay froze over but barely snowed. One of the walking encyclopedias on here can share details. Overall, one of the last things i'm going to worry about is too much blocking. It doesnt even make the worry list honestly 39 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: 77? Yea 77 was brutal cold but not much snow. Suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea 77 was brutal cold but not much snow. Suppression city. Uh-oh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 27 minutes ago, frd said: Followed by the next winter which was just as bad. We might be getting two decent winters in a row. Next winter is also near the bottom of the solar min, some even say next winter has more of a connection. Not sure about the QBO. Might get a 2 year Nino. And way out ( speculation ) there as well are going to be the effects form several VEI 3 or greater Volcanic eruptions to cool the globe. But in that manner not sure the effects of blocking. I know HM has spoke about the connection and Isotherm mentoned it as well. My apologies for dropping in on you fine folks. As far as the bolded is concerned. According to the solar cycle prediction charts which were actually updated last month, it looks like it's going to be a while still before we get to the bottom. I like your posts @frd so I thought this would interest you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Please see my above reply..., Also...there was someone else who messaged me earlier today who said he hesitated to ask questions on here because some people could be jerks about answering. And that shouldn't be...there is absolutely nothing wrong with asking questions and exploring all kinds of scenarios. So yes, I want to learn why it does and doesn't snow here because I love it just like the rest of you! Does my weenieish worrying drive me to look for some of those answers? Yes. But even so, many of the questions I ask are specific. (I know I was a bit off the rails last month, but I've moved pass that!) Thank you to the posters who actually have taken the time to answer my questions--I learn a lot from you guys. I get that...and can tell from at least some of your questions you're trying to just get answers about various things. Fair enough, and you'll certainly learn a ton from some very good posters on here. But yeah, try not to stress out too overly much on how we can fail around here. The number of ways we can do that are legion, haha! And I say that as someone who always worries with nearly every event (as I'm sure most everyone else does here!). At least until it's actually occurring or all but in the bag. The key, I think, is to perhaps keep a lot of that to yourself and maybe not blurt out every fear/worry/concern out here in the forum (except perhaps the Panic Room, of course...or if you're obviously trolling to be humorous!). Now, I'm not saying that to sound flippant or rude toward you...I'm honestly trying to help. There are plenty of times I just about want to bang my head on the desk with frustration when things go wrong or just plain suck. But whatever...in the end it's just the weather, really. So why destroy a good keyboard over that?! It took me awhile to realize how winter is in this region (moved here in 2001), and that the "average" snowfall is pretty well meaningless; the standard deviation around that is large. You either get hammered or you get almost nothing most of the time. To give some perspective, the seasonal mean is equivalent to a single decent KU event. I grew up in northeast OH, where the deviation from year to year is a lot smaller so the average meas a lot more (and is also obviously higher than it is here). Sorry for the off-topic banter, but hope this helps! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 43 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Uh-oh I believe that Jan 1977 is the coldest month in RDU history. Mean temp several degrees colder then our normal low. Modest snowfall: 2.1 inches, which suggests that the major storms were suppressed even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 IIRC, the block in 09-10 was so strong that not only did the northeast miss out on a lot, northern New England was also pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 53 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I get that...and can tell from at least some of your questions you're trying to just get answers about various things. Fair enough, and you'll certainly learn a ton from some very good posters on here. But yeah, try not to stress out too overly much on how we can fail around here. The number of ways we can do that are legion, haha! To tell you the honest truth...learning how we can fail here actually seems to help me not stress out as much; I think it kinda balances things out in my mind and helps keep the expectations in check, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 January 18-19 looking more interesting on GFS. Still too warm verbatim but has been looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The FV3 looks really interesting with the follow up storm on the 19th as well. Fun times ahead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: The FV3 looks really interesting with the follow up storm on the 19th as well. Fun times ahead. Especially considering this weekend was originally a cutter to northern MN, so many potential in the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I haven't looked at the cfs weeklies in a while but checked tonight... look exactly like the euro weeklies. If a -nao is your thing you should look at them in private 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Gefs has a couple nice hits day 11-15 so I guess the pattern isn't that awful. Post from dec 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Old maps are interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/1/2019 at 6:51 PM, psuhoffman said: And what's the record look like when America goes to war with Europe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Yea 77 was brutal cold but not much snow. Suppression city. The record books don't do justice to the cold experienced that year. One thing that was also very memorable was the wind. Seemed like every other day we were seeing winds of 25-40 mph if not higher. Would love to see a break down of wind chills during that winter because I am sure it would be off the charts. And if I remember correctly what little snow that did fall lasted and didn't so much melt away as evaporated away from the wind and dry air . No winter since has even sniffed what we experienced that year in cold and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 hours ago, Fozz said: IIRC, the block in 09-10 was so strong that not only did the northeast miss out on a lot, northern New England was also pretty warm. Not to mention Canada was kinda starved for snow during the winter Olympics that year...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Eps snowfall mean is roughly the same through DC/Balt (1.5"). However we are seeing a pickup through western VA of .5-1 inches. Most members show more of a nuisance snow of 2 inches or less with a handful that suggest possible warning criteria snow for all or portions of the DC/Balt corridor. eta: Slight bump up of 1/2 inch through the potential system centered around the 18th. Another 1/2" bump with the roughly Jan 20-22nd window that I have liked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Looking over the 20-22nd time frame that I think has a lot of potential the EPS took a step back. Issue looks to involve a common bias of the EPS. And that is of it holding energy back in the Southwest. Below we have yesterday's 12z run. Notice we have a distinct SW beginning to go negative tilt as it reaches the Mississippi. The system from the 18th, sitting in the Atlantic, is being blocked by higher pressures to the north. This is creating a backing of the flow so that we are seeing ridging (arrow) develop between these two systems. This is a good look and a fairly strong signal for at range. Now compare to what we saw over night. Notice that the short wave is farther west (roughly a day behind) as it has been hung up in the southwest. We are seeing greater separation between the two systems so this limits the ability of the backing backing of the flow to produce ridging between these two systems. As can be seen by the very muted look compared to the previous map. Now why seeing ridging between these two systems is important is because it helps to turn the trough negative tilt as it is approaching our region. This negative tilt produces a favorable environment for the low to strengthen and pull north. The look below is decent but it has taken a step back and does not show the promise that the other example presented. Couple of other things I will point out from the above. If you compare the blocking in the north Atlantic the latest run has come in much stronger with evident ridging building into Greenland. This in effect is holding the 18th system underneath that block longer and is allowing the SW to close the gap somewhat and we do see a slight positive response to this. But it just isn't enough at this time as the 18th system still releases to soon. But if we were to see that blocking come in even stronger in subsequent runs with the 18th system held even longer then we would be looking at a very similar setup as seen on yesterdays map but it would have been pushed back a day or two. Guess what I am trying to say in too many words is, what we need to see is the SW shortwave and the previous system in the Atlantic interact or get close enough to each other enough to trigger some decent ridging between the two at some point or other. The other thing I will point out is we are seeing the pv shifted southward somewhat compared to yesterdays run. That might become a player (for good or bad, anyone's guess at this point) if we continue to see an adjustment southward of that feature. All in all I am still very much into the 20-22nd time frame despite what was seen on the overnight run. Lot of promise still there when you take into account the EPS's penchant for holding energy back. In fact even if does hold back the energy I still see a win, though maybe it is delayed by a day or so, as I believe the EPS is starting to pick up on the stronger blocking that I expect to see in future runs. Best part of all? As I see the continuous stream of energy moving into California and to our south I can see the above setup repeat time and again as one system impacts us then moves out and sets up the following system a couple 3 days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GFS ensembles finally have the Hawaii ridge going away around the 16th. The pattern then matches El Nino climo too uniformly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just when you think the look at long range can't get any better it says 'Hold my beer'. Once again the overnight EPS has outdone itself. Looking at the 5 day mean at the end of the run we are seeing better height builds over the pole. Better heights and ridging over into Greenland. Stronger bridging between the EPO/PNA ridge and the Russian ridging. And the looks of some energy in the SW with potential split flow setting up through there. eta: Eps is really trying hard to set up that three way bridge over the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Eps snowfall mean is roughly the same through DC/Balt (1.5"). However we are seeing a pickup through western VA of .5-1 inches. Most members show more of a nuisance snow of 2 inches or less with a handful that suggest possible warning criteria snow for all or portions of the DC/Balt corridor. eta: Slight bump up of 1/2 inch through the potential system centered around the 18th. Another 1/2" bump with the roughly Jan 20-22nd window that I have liked. The early morning GEFS looks good for snow oppurtunities moving forward in the long range. The HL are really transforming to match the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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