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January 2019 Discussion

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2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Excellently said.

Also, can we put these in the Weenie Modeling Hall of Fame?

 

 

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_boston_41.png

snku_acc.us_ne.png

Adding one. 

fv3p_asnow_us_32.thumb.png.83ca5627ca3cec76fb039ccb891f8eb1.png

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3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Excellently said.

Also, can we put these in the Weenie Modeling Hall of Fame?

 

 

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_boston_41.png

snku_acc.us_ne.png

I'll eat my laptop if i got that pivotal kuchie total

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Adding one. 

fv3p_asnow_us_32.thumb.png.83ca5627ca3cec76fb039ccb891f8eb1.png

Dude... here's the Kuchera which cuts out sleet and doesn't require a microscope 

snku_acc.us_ne (1).png

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8 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Excellently said.

Also, can we put these in the Weenie Modeling Hall of Fame?

 

 

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_boston_41.png

snku_acc.us_ne.png

Considering how far out we are, they are remarkably similar. 

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dude... here's the Kuchera which cuts out sleet and doesn't require a microscope 

snku_acc.us_ne (1).png

I like to make people squint for their snow 

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If the GFS and Euro hold serve at 0z and are joined by the CMC and Ukie, I would put a lot more belief in this solution despite it being 6 days out.  That's a BIG "if", though.

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20 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Excellently said.

Also, can we put these in the Weenie Modeling Hall of Fame?

 

 

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_boston_41.png

snku_acc.us_ne.png

Dianne gets sweet sweet revenge at last.

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Was it yesterday the GFS gave somewhere in Maine 113 inches in one run, 31 the next and less than 10 in the next for this storm?

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10 minutes ago, mreaves said:

But not too early for avatar changes. 

Maybe i should use a Kuchera map instead.

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29 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

That’s nice, how professional of you.

 

 

It’s a weenie weather forum. Could care less.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 The stronger that first one is, it seems like the second should be further south.  That first low has a decent push of cold south behind it that should help keep the baroclinic zone further south.

 

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looks like the defining difference between the 12z and 18z cycles among these American guidance' ...is the Friday S/W is subtly stronger in the mid-levels... with more backside NVA implied helping to build/extend polar high pressure arm down into NYS-MA/VT/NH ...  That creates a better boundary layer resistance for the fast flow open wave to be forced S. 

Not sure it's right ... but that's what seems to be happening in these runs.

Ahh you put that a lot better than me but yeah that's what I was thinking when I saw the 18z GFS.

The stronger that first one is, the more likely the second one is further south.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dude... here's the Kuchera which cuts out sleet and doesn't require a microscope 

snku_acc.us_ne (1).png

Holy hell, this would for sure be the end of me...all the weenies basking in 30inches, and im sloshing around in a few inches of glop!

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2 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

I see, good for you then.  By the way, try "couldn't" next time.  

:facepalm:

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6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

right there with the "weary"/"wary" posts of yore.

And “hold serve” is not a phrase outside of tennis. Its use in this forum is made up  as far as I can tell. 

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

93 was like a massive global 3 stream deal. Even the coarse models back then were able to sniff it out from 5 days out. I don't recall 78 being a great long lead forecast. Sounds like yore to me.

78 announced itself with plenty of fanfare. The models (and W.D.) were on to it days in advance.

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1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said:

Incorrect usage. Made up. 

I’m not disagreeing...it is a tennis term, but it has been used in other places.   That was just a quick google search...

If we said the models hit it out of the park that is equally wrong.   Or more likely they struck out.

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