Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: Seems like every year they get more steroids pumped in them than Canseco. Harks back to how Mets couldn't believe Feb 13 clowns and just wouldn't pull the trigger at all. Not saying this will work out but as much precip this year [ water year] has featured, it wouldn't surprise me if 2 inch qpf overrunning an Arctic airmass occurs. Biggest complaint I have with Mets is their hesitation to go historical close in. Worst examples were Hurricane Harvey and Feb 13. There needs to be some wholesale retuning of Meteorology in this new climate. Believe me I get it and this far out its foolish but watch the forecasts if this ever came to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: only from complete nimrods - Shitbag in chief already tweeted about how nice the snow looks in DC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 gefs much better for Fri too. They all count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Harks back to how Mets couldn't believe Feb 13 clowns and just wouldn't pull the trigger at all. Not saying this will work out but as much precip this year [ water year] has featured, it wouldn't surprise me if 2 inch qpf overrunning an Arctic airmass occurs. Biggest complaint I have with Mets is their hesitation to go historical close in. Worst examples were Hurricane Harvey and Feb 13. There needs to be some wholesale retuning of Meteorology in this new climate. Believe me I get it and this far out its foolish but watch the forecasts if this ever came to fruition Yea I remember last minute downplaying of feb 13 by some on air Mets around mid day the day of..... we know how that turned out later that night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I was in college in 78, University of Maryland. The storm hit Boston on a Monday I believe. On the Friday before I toured the National Weather Service down in DC. The Met's were looking at the (LFM?) and really honking at a possible historic storm. I can also remember sitting in my dorm room listening to the statiky WBZ and wishing so bad I was up in New England instead of Maryland.... I was in a Met class at Uri and my professor Dr Haven the state climatologist was all over it very early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Shitbag in chief already tweeted about how nice the snow looks in DC. it's chapter 23 in my novel, catch-22 ... ' too big to succeed ' the gist being, even at 10 percent shitballs for brains, that still represents a sufficiently large mass that even if 90% corrective responsible practices take over... humanity still removes its self from planetary evolution by weight of the 10%'s detriment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Sad times for us snow addicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sweet Mary and Joseph the 18z GEFS rock. The dreaded 1 week “it is beautiful!!” 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sweet Mary and Joseph the 18z GEFS rock. The dreaded 1 week “it is beautiful!!” GEFS and the op rarely are far apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You had better have the camera ready to score some updated footage next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I so remember Ray and Kevin honking 30 inch amounts the day before Feb 13 and the usual Met clowns here saying impossible then it happened again in 15. I think conservative is a great way to forecast but sometimes you have to think out of that box you were brought up in, just saying 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I so remember Ray and Kevin honking 30 inch amounts the day before Feb 13 and the usual Met clowns here saying impossible then it happened again in 15. I think conservative is a great way to forecast but sometimes you have to think out of that box you were brought up with, just saying Yea, you won't here me honking like that unless its pretty striking. I think I went there last March, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: First wave looks too weak to be main deal. Second shortwave is much stronger. There's also enough spacing between them that it's believable...like a good 48-60 hours. Its totally believable that the second misses though. But I think it would have more to do with the PV than the first shortwave. At this range I feel the bigger concern is suppression. I would rather see this more amped than currently modeled at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, you won't here me honking like that unless its pretty striking. I think I went there last March, too. Yep I have had some great texts with a Houston area met who went big in the face of a lot of resistance from his peers. His actions surely saved lifes. If the Euro and EPS are consistently showing it why would you doubt it,makes no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: At this range I feel the bigger concern is suppression. I would rather see this more amped than currently modeled at this range Its overrunning with like a -4/5 850 wind SD , more amped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 The FV3 is below. According to the panels this is a LOT of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The FV3 is below. According to the panels this is a LOT of sleet. That max band is snow,you know they have regional maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The FV3 is below. According to the panels this is a LOT of sleet. I'm OK with a sleetfest ala 2007(twice) here. Juiced 2" LE from SE PA thru Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Its overrunning with like a -4/5 850 wind SD , more amped? PV press is my biggest concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I think most folks know it's 7 days out, just fun to have something to track. But there are storms that models have picked up 7 days out and pretty much remained locked in.. so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: PV press is my biggest concern Not mine but you are in Albany right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: PV press is my biggest concern Models will change constantly. At this point Albany could jack or New Bedford. Fasten your seatbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Looks like the defining difference between the 12z and 18z cycles among these American guidance' ...is the Friday S/W is subtly stronger in the mid-levels... with more backside NVA implied helping to build/extend polar high pressure arm down into NYS-MA/VT/NH ... That creates a better boundary layer resistance for the fast flow open wave to be forced S. Not sure it's right ... but that's what seems to be happening in these runs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looks like the defining difference between the 12z and 18z cycles among these American guidance' ...is the Friday S/W is subtly stronger in the mid-levels... with more backside NVA implied helping to build/extend polar high pressure arm down into NYS-MA/VT/NH ... That creates a better boundary layer resistance for the fast flow open wave to be forced S. Not sure it's right ... but that's what seems to be happening in these runs. Nailed it, low level cold air is heavy and tough to resist as well. Now its a matter of Upper level energy coalescing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yep I have had some great texts with a Houston area met who went big in the face of a lot of resistance from his peers. His actions surely saved lifes. If the Euro and EPS are consistently showing it why would you doubt it,makes no sense I was calling for a major hurricane strike from the moment Harvey was named. Kind of screwed the pooch on Michael, though...expected like cat 3 at LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Man it’s just all downhill from here. Could also be final solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Could also be final solution It could but highly unlikely. A similar outcome though is a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I so remember Ray and Kevin honking 30 inch amounts the day before Feb 13 and the usual Met clowns here saying impossible then it happened again in 15. I think conservative is a great way to forecast but sometimes you have to think out of that box you were brought up in, just saying I recall that vividly. I posted it.. of course got accused of hype by Will .. etc..and Ray agreed with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Could also be final solution Oh how we pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts